Since signing with the team in the 2022 offseason, Ondrej Palat has found himself maligned by much of the New Jersey Devils fanbase because of the disparity between his salary and on-ice production. Palat’s 34 goals and 48 assists in 197 regular season games for the Devils puts him at an average of 34 points per 82 games played, down from an average of 55 points per full season in Tampa Bay. That would be steady enough production for a third-line winger with good defensive play, but Palat is coming into his fourth year of a five-year deal worth an average of $6,000,000 per season.
His contract has been slightly front-loaded, meaning that he is only making $4.95 million per season at this point of the deal.
As a Devil, Palat has failed to even match his career-low in points as a member of the Tampa Bay Lightning, which was 34 points in 64 games in his age-27 season in 2018-19. His 31 points in 71 games in 2023-24 remains his high-point in a Devils uniform, excluding playoff performance. With the amount of consternation directed towards the Devils’ cap situation and the frustration fans have with how long it has taken to sign Luke Hughes (training camp is but a month from today for veterans), this level of production is widely considered unacceptable. But, in the interest of being charitable to Palat, I have to ask: with only two years left on his deal, is it possible that Ondrej Palat has a bounce-back season with the New Jersey Devils?
The Mixed Underlyings
We know that the production has been poor from Palat in New Jersey. That isn’t really even debatable, even giving him consideration for his lack of power play time. Rated on a per-60 minute basis, Palat’s even strength scoring rate has declined each season in New Jersey. Meanwhile, his on-ice shot rates took a massive step back in the 2024-25 season, leading to Palat having a net-negative on-ice goal rate for a second year in a row.
Digging in further, though,
HockeyViz shows a largely negative picture for Palat’s with-or-without-yous. Most concerningly, Palat was largely incapable of creating offense without Jack Hughes or Jesper Bratt. Beyond that, Dougie Hamilton, Brenden Dillon, and Luke Hughes found their expected goals against spike when on the ice with Palat, while seeing no improvement in offensive rates.
Palat’s impacts look similar on
Evolving-Hockey’s RAPM charts. Palat being on the ice leads to a large-scale increase in shots and chances against, indicating some level of dysfunction for Palat within Sheldon Keefe’s system. His impact on goals scored by the Devils is not incredibly negative, but the defensive woes are enough to give any fan pause about the idea of continuing to use Palat in any top six role, while making it seem unlikely that he will bounce back at age 34.
However, not all data on Palat is negative.
Corey Sznajder’s All Three Zones paints a picture of Palat that indicates he
could be an offensive contributor if he finds himself on the right line in the right situations. Palat is particularly proficient at creating rebounds, deflecting shots, and working the puck back to the point for shots on goal. However, he does not get many of his passes into dangerous scoring areas, nor does he receive passes around the slot for high-danger chances. Palat is more of a rush-and-cycle forward, who doesn’t really get in very quick on forechecks, but can be well-positioned to keep the puck in the offensive zone.
Still, All Three Zones’s data has some very negative showings on the defensive side. Palat simply has the puck far too often in the defensive zone, which leads to many failed exits off of defensive zone puck retrievals (turnovers), though he still gets the puck out of the zone a lot more than an average forward because of his sheer volume of puck touches in that zone.
What to Do with Palat
To that end, Palat may be best suited on a line with a center who is very defensively responsible and does not need a winger to handle those kinds of plays. This may be why Palat had strong expected numbers on a line with Nico Hischier and Timo Meier in the playoffs. However, I think a more appropriate role for him would be on a line with Cody Glass, on the third or fourth line. Glass is very strong defensively but struggles to create consistent offense. In a bottom six role, Palat can also focus more on getting to the net and trying to deflect point shots (like he did below on a Cody Glass shot).
Beyond an even strength role change, Palat also showed a lot of promise as a penalty killing forward over the last year. This is somewhere else he could find himself playing many minutes with Glass. In 28 minutes on the penalty kill in 2024-25, Palat scored a goal and did not see a single goal against. In his Devils career, Palat has been on the ice for two shorthanded goals and three power play goals against in a bit over 74 penalty killing minutes. So why has Palat, who twice played over 100 shorthanded minutes for Tampa Bay, not been given a larger special teams role here? Given where he is in his career, the Devils need to maximize the situations where Palat excels the most. If anything, it could give him a boost of confidence in his all-around game.
While fans have been disappointed with Palat’s on-ice production, I have to imagine that Palat, a highly-respected professional, is probably himself disappointed with his play with the Devils. He has shown flashes of the playoff performer he was brought in to be, and if Corey Perry showed me anything in the recent Stanley Cup playoffs, it’s not to count any player out due to aging. Smart players have a way of getting back to a high level of play, even when they cannot accomplish things the same way they did when they were in their 20s. So, will Palat bounce back? I’m not sure. His defensive metrics do not look fantastic, but he was a part of a dominant top playoff line with Hischier and Meier. Had Jack Hughes not been out for the season by that point, I think that playoff series would have looked a lot different, and Palat would have been able to continue showing why he was brought in by Fitzgerald in the first place.
I am also cautiously optimistic about Palat’s ability to chip in bottom six production. He had a solid rate of chances at five-on-five over the last season, and he converted at a career-high 15.6% of shots. With four of those goals coming from deflection chances, Palat fell just one short of his career-high in deflection goals, set in 2019-20. Perhaps if Palat also finds himself on the right wing, on a line with Cotter and Glass, he could also see an increase in wrist shot conversion (Palat historically finds himself a better shooter on his off-wing, per HockeyViz). There are certainly ways to put Palat in a position to contribute, but it is on Sheldon Keefe to identify them and be consistent with keeping Palat in those roles.
Your Thoughts
What have you thought of Ondrej Palat in a Devils uniform? With his place on the roster all but guaranteed at this point, what are your hopes and expectations for him? Do you think he can bounce back? Leave your thoughts in the comments below, and thanks for reading.
Champs for life
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