It was Week 16 of last season on
Sunday Night Football when the Dallas Cowboys, hosting the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, were eliminated from postseason contention from the earlier action that Sunday, but still played one of their most inspired games of the season and beat the Bucs 26-24. Here in Week 15 of the 2025 season, the Cowboys were again hosting SNF, this time with playoff hopes slim but in tact, but fell victim to a team in the same circumstance they were last season. Losing 34-26 to a Minnesota Vikings team that was eliminated from playoff contention by the Chicago Bears win in the early window, the Cowboys have followed up their first winning streak of the season with back-to-back losses that likely leaves just three games left to close out this constantly up-and-down season.
The Cowboys’ playoff odds are down to less than 1% now, losing in the same week the Philadelphia Eagles got back in the win column with a 31-0 win over the Raiders. That 30 point output for the Eagles at home against the Raiders defense made Las Vegas’ defense one of just two this season to allow 30 points in seven games, but by the time Sunday night was over Matt Eberflus’ Cowboys defense joined these ranks with the Raiders and Bengals by allowing 34 to J.J. McCarthy and the Vikings. This loss closes out a chapter that will define a 2025 Cowboys season destined to go nowhere in Brian Schottenheimer’s debut now, as the Cowboys went 0-3-1 against the NFC North.
Three times a defense led by a former head coach from this division lined up looking to make a statement, and three times they were shredded in a loss – the Bears scored 31, the Lions scored 44, and now the Vikings scored 34. It remains miraculous that Dallas managed a tie out of allowing 40 points to the Packers as well. McCarthy’s 250 yards and 10.4 yards per attempt against the Cowboys on Sunday night were both career highs for the 2024 first-round pick.
The Vikings overcame an early 7-0 hole to sink the Cowboys into the same boat they are in, which is playing just to evaluate their roster and prospects for the future. While Minnesota ended up with plenty to be pleased with in this area as they competed all night and got a second straight win, the Cowboys will be left with a ton of questions and concerns about this performance. Special teams mistakes continued, the protection plan struggled to keep a clean pocket for Dak Prescott, the defense was not on the same page in coverage, George Pickens was nearly invisible again, and Brandon Aubrey missed two field goals.
The Cowboys are now below .500 at 6-7-1, and will need to win at least two of their remaining three games versus the Chargers or at the Commanders and Giants to finish above this mark this season. With two of these opponents being teams Dallas has already beat within their division, their next four quarters against the Chargers stands to tell a lot about the makeup of this team at the moment. When it comes to a late push for the playoffs though, too much damage has seemingly already been done in home losses to the Cardinals and Vikings now, as well as road losses at the Panthers and the Eagles by four.
Let’s get to our notes on another majorly disappointing primetime loss for the Cowboys at home, which snapped a three-game winning streak against the Vikings.
Losing the battle of field position was a major reason the Cowboys lost to the Lions, and they improved on this from the jump versus the Vikings. A Donovan Wilson blitz off the corner led to a deflected pass that was intercepted by Quinnen Williams, setting the Cowboys up at the Vikings’ 35-yard line. Not looking to just get a field goal off of the short field, the Cowboys ran a beautiful fake field goal on 4th-and-4 to move the chains with Brandon Aubrey rushing for six yards. When faced with another fourth down, the Cowboys moved the chains to the one-yard line with Javonte Williams – who scored one play later to put the home team ahead.
On the ensuing kickoff, Aubrey hit a well-placed bouncing ball that was difficult to field for the Vikings’ return team, and allowed first-year UDFA Alijah Clark to get downfield and make a tackle inside the 15. Another aggressive defensive call on third-and-short led to a quick stop for the Dallas defense with a long field to defend. Dante Fowler forced an inside handoff into secondary players Malik Hooker and Shavon Revel, who were both lined up close to the line of scrimmage and made the stop to force a punt.
Unfortunately for the Cowboys, all of these good vibes were very short lived, as this punt pinned them at their own three-yard line. The Vikings got the stop they needed to swing field position back in their favor, scored in two plays with Josh Nailor beating DaRon Bland for the tying touchdown, and truly never looked back in this game.
For the rest of the evening, the Cowboys looked to remain patient on offense and keep the Vikings aggression at bay by testing them with interior runs, which were effective, but this style of ball control did not mix with the way the Cowboys secondary was giving up chunk plays. Both teams only converted twice on third down, but the Vikings forced the Cowboys into 12 attempts compared to just nine for themselves. Minnesota scored touchdowns on three of four red zone trips, while the Cowboys were just two for five.
The Cowboys passing game did not create more answers for Prescott than Kevin O’Connell and the Vikings did for their first-year starter J.J. McCarthy, who was not sacked once compared to Prescott being sacked twice. The first sack for the Vikings came on third down, and led to Aubrey’s first miss from 51 yards. Already having scored back-to-back touchdowns, the Vikings added their own field goal off this short field.
Trailing 17-14 before halftime, the Cowboys drove to tie the game at 17, but would have loved to come away with a touchdown on a drive that saw George Pickens make just one of three catches on the night for a first down into the fringe of the red zone. Starting the third quarter with the ball, the Cowboys would get deep into the red zone this time, but still come up with only three points. These six points within the crucial “middle eight” of the game were not nearly enough with the way the Vikings offense continued to get better as the game progressed. Prescott made a great scramble drill toss to Luke Schoonmaker for a 29 yard gain on this drive, but on a later third down was not on the same page with Turpin against the rush, allowing the Vikings to keep the Cowboys well short of the end zone.
The other Vikings sack in this game also created a turning point, as the visiting team had rallied to lead 24-23 at this point. A screen pass that served as the equivalent of a “get me over fastball” from a major league starting pitcher to Pickens just to keep him involved set up a third down where Prescott was sacked, pushing another Aubrey field goal try back to 59 yards. Aubrey missed again, the Vikings moved the pocket for McCarthy and created easy throws attacking the Cowboys safeties, and in back to back plays saw T.J. Hockenson set up first-and-goal with a catch against Markquese Bell and Nailor score his second touchdown working against Wilson in man coverage on the goal line.
The Cowboys defense showed a few wrinkles that were effective in this game when putting their starting safeties Wilson and Hooker down in the box, but the Vikings made their adjustments to force the Cowboys to use their secondary in coverage, where the safeties proved a big liability again. Dallas would have less of a need to find value in their safeties being strong box players if they were better at linebacker, but once again Kenneth Murray struggled in the middle and Logan Wilson in increased playing time was not a major upgrade either.
The Cowboys were on the very limit of only being down one score now, but the juice for the offense was not there to get this score. C.J. Goodwin, solely on the Cowboys roster for special teams, was called for holding on the kickoff following Nailor’s touchdown – wiping out a big return from Turpin. On a must-have fourth down attempt, Prescott bought time in the pocket but had no receivers coming back to the ball for him, and checked it down to Malik Davis who was tackled just short. The Vikings took the ball back, and although the Cowboys defense forced them into a fourth down, defending a short field again proved too difficult as even giving up a field goal put this game on ice. The Cowboys answered with a field goal in a last ditch effort to preserve time for the touchdown they still needed, but Aubrey’s onside attempt was handled by Josh Oliver before Marist Liufau could displace him from the ball.
The Vikings left Arlington playing as the better team, now with back-to-back wins against NFC East opponents. A defensive shutout that saw McCarthy throw three touchdowns for the first time in his career in a home win against the Commanders was a sight for sore eyes in Minnesota last week, and this win at the Cowboys is a whole new layer for that team to feel good about culturally despite not going to the playoffs. The Vikings outcoached and outplayed the Cowboys in a huge spot, coming back from trailing on three separate occasions.
In the loss, the Cowboys will have to face the same reality as the Vikings of not going to the playoffs possibly before they even line up again, as the Eagles next chance to win and clinch the division comes next Saturday against the Commanders. The reality of this being a “when” and not “if” scenario for the Cowboys getting eliminated is going to shine an even brighter light on some of the chemistry, scheme, and coaching miscues that have cost them consecutive games, and Dallas didn’t find much in the way of leadership that can carry them out of this hole on Sunday night.
The Cowboys going 1-4-1 in primetime games this season is also something that is not going to sit well within the organization, only clinging to relevancy here in December thanks to an Eagles slide they can no longer rely on.
Their last opportunity to get a win in front of AT&T Stadium home fans is a rare early window game for the Cowboys against the Chargers in Week 16. Coming in with some similarities to the Vikings when it comes to being well-coached with a QB that can pump confidence into the entire team and a multiple defense, the Cowboys will have their chance to earn just a bit of redemption after a week that will be full of soul-searching.
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as expected, both Tyler Guyton and DaRon Bland are ruled out — the latter likely heading to IR. 
