Before the Kansas City Chiefs’ Week 12 game against the Indianapolis Colts, five of our eight Arrowhead Pride panelists picked the Chiefs to win. As a group, we called for Kansas City to emerge with a 25-21 win, which carried only four points of error from
the game’s 23-20 score. So even though three of us picked the wrong team — which significantly shuffled the standings — it was our closest prediction of the season. Our readers generally saw it pretty much the same way. Two-thirds thought it would be a close game — and 42% thought the Colts would win.*
In Week 13, the Chiefs face the Dallas Cowboys at AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. According to FanDuel Sportsbook, Kansas City is favored by 3.5 points.
Let’s see what the staff — and our readers — think about the matchup.
Nate Christensen (@natech32)
This is a really interesting game. Both teams just achieved their biggest win of the season with a huge comeback. Both teams had to exhaust themselves to get across the finish line, and now they play four days later.
I expect points in this game. Dallas’s zone-based defense is not equipped to stop this version of the Chiefs offense. On the other side, the Dallas offense is legit — and will put stress on the Chiefs’ secondary to make plays. Quarterback Dak Prescott is one of the league’s smartest quarterbacks. He will have answers for defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo.
Ultimately, I think Kansas City has the better roster and coaching staff, so I’ll take them — but this game will not be easy.
Chiefs 30, Cowboys 24
Join the conversation!
Sign up for a user account and get:
- Fewer ads
- Create community posts
- Comment on articles, community posts
- Rec comments, community posts
- Coming soon: New, improved notifications system!
The Cowboys are essentially the 2018 Chiefs: one of the league’s top offenses combined with one of the league’s worst defenses. Meanwhile, Kansas City might be fielding the most well-balanced team of head coach Andy Reid’s tenure. Yet both teams have struggled to collect victories. Both must now stack wins to have a real chance at the playoffs. Players from both teams are emotionally exhausted after come-from-behind wins that depended on last-second field goals — and have had only a short week to get themselves right.
So this game will either be one of the best we’ll see all season… or a sloppy mess. In such a situation, I have to put my money on the team that’s been in this situation over and over again.
Chiefs 27, Cowboys 16
I’m torn on this matchup. I believe the Chiefs will win — and I know they can win — but the Cowboys’ wide receivers present a nightmare matchup. If Kansas City can’t generate pressure with the front four — and Prescott has time to operate — that’s a problem for a secondary that must deal with the explosiveness of wide receivers CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens.
The best approach may be matching cornerback Trent McDuffie on Lamb — letting him follow the the wideout all day — while cornerback Jaylen Watson handles Pickens with safety help over the top. With the injuries along the Dallas offensive line, Spagnuolo has an opportunity to dial up disguised pressures and rattle Prescott before he settles in.
Being without guard Trey Smith will hurt the Chiefs’ running game, but I feel they’ll still get enough out of it — especially with the return of running back Isiah Pacheco — to keep the Dallas defense honest. And if the Cowboys have to respect the run, quarterback Patrick Mahomes should find openings in a secondary that has struggled against quality offenses.
The urgency is high for both teams. This is essentially a must-win for the Chiefs and the Cowboys. But last week’s overtime win against the Colts felt like a turning point. Sometimes you just need to see yourself win a close game again to get that swagger back.
I think that momentum carries over.
Chiefs 28, Cowboys 24
It’s hard to believe AT&T Stadium is the only stadium where Mahomes hasn’t yet started an NFL game. Since he’s from the Dallas area, that’s pretty ironic. Well, here we are.
At first, this looked like an automatic win — but not now. The Cowboys have bolstered the middle of their defensive line with the addition of nose tackle Quinnen Williams. Couple that with their potent passing attack and you have a pretty dangerous team.
But if the Chiefs can maintain the run-pass balance they had against the Colts, I believe they’ll be able to keep Dallas on its toes — and create opportunities for explosive downfield plays, too. I expect Mahomes to show out in his first Thanksgiving start.
Chiefs 31, Cowboys 24
Both teams should feel exhausted after the way they had to win in Week 12, but each must be ready to play their stars as much as possible as the playoff push continues.
The Dallas defense has shown improvement in recent weeks due to some big-time trades, but it still struggles to cover in the secondary — and Mahomes appears to have found his groove after a strong second half last week.
If the Chiefs’ offensive line can find a way to block Williams, I don’t think they’ll have much trouble scoring points on Dallas.
Defensively, they must find ways to put pressure on Prescott quickly, preventing him from throwing deep balls downfield to Pickens and Lamb. With left tackle Tyler Guyton out, I would expect to see nose tackle Chris Jones lined up outside on passing downs — and would look for a strong game from defensive end George Karlaftis.
Chiefs 28, Cowboys 21
It’s good news that the Chiefs are getting Pacheco back. But it’s bad news that they will be without Smith. When Kansas City committed to running the football against the Colts, the Chiefs could dictate the line of scrimmage and the flow of the game. Dallas will also be without one of its star linemen: Guyton. I would expect Spagnuolo to look for ways to take advantage of Dallas being a man down on the edge. Look for him to try to blitz from unique positions to confuse a player who has not played much this year.
I think this game is going to come down to the Chiefs finding a way to put pressure on Prescott while doing everything they can to frustrate Pickens, forcing him to make mistakes. Dallas head coach Brian Schottenheimer’s late father Marty was the Chiefs’ longtime head coach. Since this game is a bit of a homecoming for him, I could see him taking some big swings. But as long as Kansas City keeps balancing the run with the pass — and the defense continues to be motivated — the Chiefs will be tough to beat.
Chiefs 30, Dallas 20
Covering the Chiefs while living in Fort Worth gives me the perspective that both fanbases have similar frustrations with how this season has gone. There are many parallels between the teams. Both are coming off an emotional come-from-behind win in Week 12 — and both need a win on Thanksgiving with eyes on the postseason.
Both teams also enter this game with a key starter missing on the offensive line. I predict — especially with running back Kareem Hunt’s insane workload four days ago — the Chiefs will try to compensate for Smith’s absence with a pass-heavy game plan against a suspect Cowboys secondary. I believe Dallas will navigate the absence of its left tackle with a more run-heavy approach.
Since both teams are coming off physical Week 12 games, I think we’ll see a lower-than-expected score. Ultimately, the Chiefs have a recent history of rising to the moment in key situations — while Dallas continually fails to take the next step. I think Kansas City will do just enough to win what will be a sloppy outing for both teams.
Chiefs 22, Cowboys 17
The Chiefs found some things in their fourth-quarter comeback: a running game, a defense that can get stops, receivers who can make plays and a quarterback who refuses to lose. Here’s the question: will those things continue to be factors?
The Cowboys are an interesting matchup. They have plenty of talent, but inconsistent results. They’re capable of beating Kansas City — or losing by 20. It’s all about execution. Which team will show up?
With Pacheco’s return, the Chiefs will have their full running back group available. Will he take the lead role back from Hunt, who is coming off a big game? Will the offensive line thrive without Smith?
I’m not betting against this version of Mahomes — especially if Reid continues to give him a running game. So happy Thanksgiving, everyone! The Chiefs are going on a run.
Chiefs 38, Cowboys 24
With their predictions aggregated, our panelists expect the Chiefs to win 29-21.
What do you think?
2025 Standings
| TW | LW | Staffer | W | L | Pct | Err |
| 1 | 1 | Maurice Elston | 7 | 4 | 0.6364 | 22.7 |
| 2 | 4 | Caleb James | 6 | 5 | 0.5455 | 23.1 |
| 3 | 5 | Mark Gunnels | 6 | 5 | 0.5455 | 24.4 |
| 4 | 2 | Jared Sapp | 6 | 5 | 0.5455 | 24.5 |
| 5 | 7 | Matt Stagner | 6 | 5 | 0.5455 | 28.7 |
| 6 | 3 | Rocky Magaña | 5 | 6 | 0.4545 | 21.3 |
| 7 | 8 | Nate Christensen | 5 | 6 | 0.4545 | 22.9 |
| 8 | 6 | John Dixon | 5 | 6 | 0.4545 | 25.3 |
In Week 12, Nate Christensen (24-17), Caleb James (24-17), Maurice Elston (27-20) and Mark Gunnels (27-23) all had just eight points of error in their predictions. Three of our panelists — Rocky Magaña, John Dixon and
Jared Sapp — picked the wrong team, which had a pretty significant effect on the standings.
*
To calculate a prediction’s points of error, the differences between the prediction and the actual score in point spread, home team score and away team score are added together. For example, a prediction calls for a 17-10 Chiefs win. They end up winning 16-10, so there were two points of error: the point spread was off by one point, the Kansas City score missed by one point and the opponent’s score was predicted correctly. But if the Chiefs lose the game 17-10, there were 28 points of error in the prediction: the point spread was off by 14 (the difference between +7 and -7) and both scores missed by 7.
