Can the Falcons win the NFC South this season?

[Atlanta Falcons]

Can the Falcons win the NFC South this season?

The Atlanta Falcons preseason is now over, and after three games, a series of joint practices, and the already underway 53-man roster cutdown, Atlanta is preparing itself for its Week 1 divisional matchup at home against the Buccaneers.

Here at The Falcoholic, we’ve analyzed every preseason game, every starter’s reps, and predicted which players will make the final regular season roster and contribute to our 2025 playoff push, and over at FanDuel, they’re doing the same thing, and adding in some division title odds for our sports betting pleasure.

If you read our guy Evan Birchfield’s Monday article, you would know FanDuel has Atlanta missing out on the division title for the ninth straight year, but on the bright side, they aren’t too far behind, along with some other categories like making the playoffs and scratching just over 8.5 wins in 2025 (according to them… a Super Bowl is still a far cry away.) So let’s check in on those division title odds from FanDuel, analyze where you should be putting your money, and based on what other NFC South teams looked like in the preseason… could Atlanta beat the odds this season?

2025 pre-season division Title odds

Tampa Bay Buccaneers -105

Atlanta Falcons +200

Carolina Panthers +420

New Orleans Saints +1300

For a comparison, let’s take a look at the odds from FanDuel for the NFC South last year

2024 pre-season division title odds

Atlanta Falcons: +150

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: +250

New Orleans Saints: +260

Carolina Panthers: +650

In 2025, Atlanta has +50 worse odds to win the division than in 2024. Last season, the acquisition of high profile players like Kirk Cousins, Justin Simmons, Darnell Mooney, and Matthew Judon made Atlanta the favorite to win the South. This season, with some anticipated growing pains on offense, handing the keys over to a quarterback who’s started just three games in his career, FanDuel stays fairly optimistic about Atlanta’s chances, but they aren’t putting all their chips in one basket… and neither should you. With a quarterback coming off a career year, a second-year back using momentum from last season to propel his name into top 10 conversations, and a defense that largely remains consistent with the exception of key veteran departures like Carlton Davis and Shaquil Barrett, Tampa Bay should definitely be the favorite. Atlanta could be a big and bold bet that wouldn’t sound too far out of left field, but just like they could surprise us and snap the division drought, they could very well disappoint us with another mediocre season.

These odds are based on the draft, offseason, and pre-season games, and let me tell you… it’s been an interesting three weeks for the NFC South. First off, three teams in the division went winless in all three weeks. Atlanta, Carolina, and New Orleans couldn’t quite edge out a victory in any of the matchups. Tampa bay did, winning two games, and their only loss coming against the Bills, a game I will forever remember as Shilo Sanders’ last moments in a Buccaneers jersey. Their two wins don’t mean much in the grand scheme of things, however they looked like the most well-rounded team out of the bunch. The young receiver duo of Jalen McMillan and Emeka Egbuka look like they’re capable of explosive plays in this offense and already look poised to take over post Evans-Godwin era, whenever that may be. While we fully expect Bucky Irving to be Tampa Bay’s premiere back; the handful of carries Rachaad White received against Tennessee showed us an effective two-back system could be brewing.

New Orleans probably had the worst outing of the bunch, which is reflected in their +1300 title odds. With an uninspiring quarterback room of Spencer Rattler, Jake Haener, and Tyler Shough, the Saints still have a big question mark at signal caller ahead of week 1 against Arizona, and I don’t think any of their performances made the decision any clearer. Another big issue for the team was the inability to stop chunk plays on defense. The Chargers, Jags, and Broncos all had no problem carving out big gains with receivers each drive. Courtland Sutton himself had a big day in Week 3 with 83 yards and a touchdown on just four receptions. If this is any indication of struggles defensively, it may be time to worry for Saints fans.

Panthers are in a much better boat odds-wise than last year. On the brightest of sides, Bryce Young looked the best he’s ever been, confident, efficient, and running the table in Dave Canale’s offense, clearly building off his explosive 2024 second half. Only thing that worries me about them is their youth at receiver. Aside from Adam Thielen, Hunter Renfrow is the only other receiver with prior success at the position on the team, and it could pan out that way should a deal be made with Minnesota for a Thielen-Vikings reunion. Tetairoa McMillan had an outstanding pre-season, but time will tell if this translates into regular season, and Xavier Legette is coming off a less than ideal rookie year where his 14% drop rate was the third highest among all players with at least 75 targets. If we see the Panthers offense struggle this year, I don’t think the finger will be pointed at Young, but rather an inexperienced receiving core.

And finally Atlanta. My favorite part about our preseason was watching Easton Stick deliver game in and game out. They weren’t jaw-dropping performances, but what he was able to do in a Zac Robinson offense got me even more excited for what Penix Jr. can accomplish with this team. Penix and Stick share similar tendencies, albeit Penix on a better scale, but these include those quick releases and decision making, and their ability to hang in the pocket and make good precise throws. There wasn’t much to take away from performances from offensive starters since most of their reps were reserved for joint practices, but the biggest loss to Atlanta’s offense was Kaleb McGary, who now goes to injured reserve and won’t be able to play for at least the first four weeks of the season, but the injury could and is expected to keep him sidelined for longer. While he isn’t our best lineman, he is the one protecting Penix’ blindside, and that is arguably the most important offensive line position when you’re talking about a pocket passer, so big shoes to fill for whoever steps in them.

All in all… Tampa Bay for good reason leads the line on FanDuel’s title odds, but Atlanta isn’t too far behind, and honestly shouldn’t even be classified as a sleeper, but a true contender. Same could be said for Carolina, but the only ones I fear season has ended before it even started are the Saints. Bless their hearts, because right now it’s less ‘Who Dat’ and more ‘Who’s that?‘ under center.

FanDuel Sportsbook is holding a Flash Sale on Tuesday, August 26 where you can get profit boost tokens around various futures markets throughout the day. The markets will be split up throughout the day, but they will include odds to win the Super Bowl and hypothetical Super Bowl matchups, odds to make or miss the playoffs, win totals, division winners, and player milestones. Head over to FanDuel Sportsbook on Tuesday to take advantage.

Source: https://www.thefalcoholic.com/atlan...can-the-falcons-win-the-nfc-south-this-season