Welcome back to yet another year of the Brew Hoop Round Table, where we ask that everybody use coasters and please don’t feed the aging pugs from the table, thanks. At long last, it’s time for Milwaukee Bucks basketball! As is custom around these parts, we gather for our yearly Opening Night roundtable and put our prognosticator caps on. Won’t you join us?
Bucks 2025–26 Record, Seed, and Playoff Performance
Morgan: I refuse to countenance the Bucks in the play-in, so 6th it is. In that place last year was the Pistons at 44-38, which feels low, so I’ll generously bump that up to 45-37. Still, I remain optimistic that the Bucks can take out a three seed in a playoff series, so I’ll give them a series in six before bowing out in the conference semis.
Finn: Avoiding the play-in and cracking the top six should be the unwavering expectation this year. I see Milwaukee winning 46–48 games, finishing sixth in the East, but then falling short in a competitive first-round battle against the Hawks or the Magic.
Jack: Give me fifth in the East, winning 47 games. I do believe this team can not only make it out of the first round but also play a really competitive second-round series.
Drew: I see the team winning somewhere between 45 and 50 games this season. The main goal should be staying out of the play-in, and I think if they’re somewhere in this range, they’ll find themselves as the five or six seed in the East. Depending on the matchup in that first round, a first-round series win is a realistic goal for this team, I think.
Jackson: I’ll put them at 48-34, taking the fourth seed in the East. I have Cleveland, New York, and Orlando ahead of the Bucks. While the Atlanta Hawks have a lot of buzz after the offseason they just had and the potential of the Detroit Pistons to take another step, the Bucks still have the best player in the conference.
Van: I have them fourth at 47-35. I don’t think the East has more than three 50-win teams, and I think Milwaukee is in the same mix as Atlanta and Detroit. I’ll say they tie in the standings with the Pistons, get the tiebreaker over them, and finish one game ahead of the Hawks. They’ll take out Detroit in round one before losing to New York in the second round, but I think they’ll give them a run for their money: with Myles Turner in the fold, I think Milwaukee matches up with KAT and co. much better; no regular-season sweep this season.
Zac: I’m a believer in this team, but if Giannis misses
any time, this iteration of the Bucks will struggle to rack up wins. Considering he typically misses 10–15 games, that’s quite a handicap to overcome. 45–37 seems about right, good for fifth in a logjam of teams behind Cleveland, New York, Orlando, and Detroit. In the playoffs, they’ll steal one on the road and hold serve to win in six—you know, for the culture—before falling short in the second round.
Nate: Based on some promising preseason flashes, which include Doc installing a faster, more active playstyle better suited to this team and some exciting new pairings (
Cole Anthony and Ryan Rollins), I’m actually slightly more optimistic than my original pick of the six seed. I’m now going with a five seed, 47 wins, and a second-round exit. I find it too hard to pick against a Giannis-led team against any of the four seeds the Bucks would likely play (Detroit, Orlando, Atlanta). That said, my biggest concern with this team remains perimeter defense, and talented guards will still present a huge problem.
Kyle: There is a wide variance because the East is not strong this year. I’ll give them 45 wins and a five seed, and they will win the first round before falling to Cleveland/New York.
Offensive/Defensive League Ranking
Morgan: I’ve crunched the numbers to account for slight regression overall while rebalancing toward defense. The result is 14th on offense and 12th on defense. Woof. I’ll stick to that, but I’m hoping for more improvement defensively and a Giannis-led offense to perform better than mid-table!
Finn: If
everything clicks for this team, they could be a top-five offense in the regular season. I love the fit of this roster around Giannis. They’re going to pummel teams with three-point barrages at times, but there will be some rough spells too. I’d ultimately predict the Bucks finish eighth in offense and a respectable-but-not-intimidating 15th in defense.
Jack: I happen to love the mix with this year’s team, and think their defence being better will allow them to get back to scoring on the fastbreak (like they did in the Bud years). On offence, I expect them to finish around 12th. On defence, let’s go with 9th.
Drew: I think the team will be middle of the pack defensively—serviceable, but not excelling on that end consistently. To give it a number, I’ll say 14th. Offensively, I love the fit around Giannis and think this could be a very good offensive team. To be optimistic and realistic, I’ll go with 10th on that end.
Jackson: I think the Bucks will have some early struggles on offense, which will drag down the offense a bit before they find their stride. By season’s end, I think they can be anywhere from the 12–16 range in terms of offensive rating. Defense, on the other hand, I am very high on. I think they have a chance to be top-10 or even top-eight on that end of the floor, with the new frontcourt of Giannis and Myles Turner.
Van: I think both are above-average units, but I don’t see either finishing inside the top 10. In recent years, teams around 12th in defensive rating tend to finish with an upper-40s win total, so long as their offense is around league-average, which is where I expect the Bucks to be. Similar to Morgan, I’ll say 14th on offense and 11th on defense.
Zac: Last year, the Bucks finished 10th in offensive rating and 12th in defensive rating. Prior to the preseason—and I know I shouldn’t put any stock in that—I would have argued the defensive rating would improve while the offensive rating would slip. Now, I’m concerned about the defence’s ability to handle bigger ballhandlers, play without fouling, and to a lesser extent, how engaged Giannis will be on that end of the floor. On the flip side, I think the increased three-point volume to complement Giannis’ rim assaults bodes
really well for the offence. Let’s go 8th in offensive rating and 12th in defensive rating—unless Giannis gets back to his All-Defensive team form.
Nate: After the preseason, I had the same thoughts as Zac above: so far, my offense/defense expectations have been inverted. In theory, with two super-talented rim protectors, the Bucks should be able to defend in a style not unlike the Cavs or Thunder, but those teams still have top-tier perimeter defenders, and the Bucks, well… their perimeter D is unproven at best. I expect them to be middle of the pack again, with slightly more potential for the offense if they continue to shoot threes at a high clip on more attempts. I’ll go 10th in O, 13th in D.
Kyle: The offense is going to be more reliant on shooters this season, and yes, AJ Green, Gary Trent Jr., Bobby Portis, and Myles Turner can make those shots at a good clip. But I do worry there will be stretches where the shot doesn’t fall and there isn’t much of a plan B outside of Giannis doing everything. I will put them 16th in offense. I expect the defense to be better with the squad being more athletic. I don’t think they will be top 10, but a respectable 12th would be good.
Will Doc Rivers or Jon Horst be thought of as on the hot seat this year, or are they already?
Morgan: Doc should be on the hot seat as a lovely gentleman, but an ultimately milquetoast coach. Without the “first full year at the helm” card in his hand, I expect him to be on the hot seat when the Bucks have a decent but ultimately underwhelming year, given the expectations of having Giannis on the roster. I don’t view Horst as on the hot seat and doubt that the course of this season will change that. He can play the “first full year without Khris” card, and will only be in trouble next year when Kuz has not been magically parlayed into a legitimate third banana.
Finn: Doc has been on the hot seat with fans for well over a calendar year now. His limitations as a coach are well-documented, and if he once again fails to maximize a Giannis-led roster, a change in sideline management could once again be in order. Horst, though, is safe.
Jack: I think Doc is on the hot seat because firing him is the easiest move to make. With Horst, I just don’t see it; maybe if he whiffs on another draft pick next year…
Drew: I am also of the opinion that Horst is safe. While this is not a championship-level roster for Doc to work with, he’s got a top player in the world and a roster that fits well around him. The fans have had Doc on the hot seat for a while, and I think if the team struggles out of the gate with a roster I feel should be a good, conversations will need to be had.
Jackson: Horst already has had some of the heat taken off of him after getting his contract extension, so I have no worries about him anytime soon. The one who could get a fire lit underneath him is Doc Rivers. Most people gave him a pass for his first year and a half coaching the team, taking over in the middle of the 2023–24 season and 2024–25 being his first full year. While there are a bunch of moving parts to this team and it doesn’t have the same star power as previous years, this is where Doc has to prove his mettle as a coach. If he can bring this team close to 48 wins, then I think he’ll be safe.
Van: I don’t think Horst will be at all this year, because I think he and the ownership are aligned on making a big roster upgrade next summer, if not sooner. But Doc, whose contract runs until summer 2027, will probably not get an extension unless the Bucks make a deep postseason run. Teams tend not to keep lame-duck coaches in the final years of their deals. Since I don’t see the Bucks making the NBA Finals, I think they will cut bait after they’re eliminated. Does that mean he’s on the hot seat? I guess so.
Zac: Having signed a multi-year contract extension in April, it’s hard to see Horst on the hot seat, especially considering how creative he’s been in revitalising this team when all seemed lost. Having said this, in the worst-case situation that Giannis
does ask out, Horst’s seat will be as hot as it gets—make the wrong call and it’s back to the dark ages. For Doc, it all comes down to how the team starts. He’ll be lauded if the Bucks exceed expectations early, but if they’re anything close to last year’s 2-8 start, he’ll need to call the fire brigade.
Nate: For better or worse, we’ve seen a trend of even very recently successful coaches and GMs getting canned. And relative to expectation, the Bucks haven’t exactly been successful as of late. But I think Horst’s value to ownership and the franchise is that he’s continually been able to retain the greatest player to ever grace Milwaukee’s court. As long as he continues to do that, I assume he’s safe. Doc, on the other hand, will need to achieve with this version of the team to stick around. If they look good and, say, get to the second round, he’ll go for another run at the ‘chip. But if the Bucks are a middling team, I think he will want out anyway.
Kyle: Both of them should be on the hot seat. The Bucks moved on from Mike Budenholzer for not making it out of the first round, and Doc now has two playoff series where Milwaukee was knocked out round one. We do need to look at Jon Horst’s lack of success in the draft along with some questionable trades. Is this the guy who is best suited to put together a Bucks roster post Giannis? I’m not quite sure.
Will Giannis be on the team this time next year? Why or why not?
Morgan: Yes. Giannis has clearly indicated his loyalty, vultures be Shamned.
Finn: I’m with Morgan here. Yep, Giannis will remain a Buck, and that shouldn’t need much explanation for those who don’t overreact to barely-credible rumors.
Jack: Ha! This isn’t going to be popular, but knowing what we know, I’d predict that Giannis is not on the team. I do think he’d prefer to win in Milwaukee, but I struggle to see how even a big trade gets the Bucks to the level of the NBA’s best teams (and also, that attempting a Hail Mary could severely hamstring the franchise for the better part of the next decade). There is too much smoke for there not to be at least a bit of fire with respect to recent reporting. Having said this, I’d be happy to be wrong. I’m in the business of this team competing for ‘chips, not being average and “in the middle” (AKA the worst spot to be in pro sports). If they can achieve the former, I’m all in, but that’s a
huge ask.
Drew: Yes, and I’m not going to give it any more attention.
Jackson: I’ve written about this so many times, and I think it’s silly that it has to be brought up because of the network that will not be named. Giannis will be a Buck until he retires from the NBA and heads back to Greece to play ball.
Van: Yes, because I believe that history will repeat itself a third time when Horst cashes in his three future first-round picks (and perhaps their most recently-drafted first from June’s draft) plus tens of millions in expiring salary next summer for Giannis’ new running mate. That will convince Giannis to extend yet again.
Zac: Giannis
will be on the team this time next year. For one, it’s just so hard to trade a player of Giannis’ stature (and contract) in a way that works out for both teams. Should he want to move, he’d want to go to a contender, but any team in this position would deplete themselves by getting him. Secondly, Giannis has literally
just witnessed how bad it can be when a star player leaves and longs for home. For a guy as loyal as Giannis, this has to hold weight. Need more? Giannis has admitted he cares about legacy, something chasing rings elsewhere actually hurts—he’ll want to go down like Duncan, Dirk, and Kobe. Speaking of which, this will be Giannis’ “Kobe 2005–06 season”—astronomical stats on a middling team—until Trader Jon strikes again in the offseason, giving the Bucks their Pau Gasol in preparation for a second title run.
Nate: I think he’ll be a Buck. A year from now, I expect Giannis to sign one more extension worth a lot more money than anyone else can give him, and then pack up and head to Greece after it’s through. After his next extension, might he take a one-year, team-friendly deal elsewhere to try and snag a final ring? Maybe, but I think he (as well as all of us) should be pretty optimistic about the Bucks’ roster potential in 2026–27 and 2027–28. When paired with a few hundred million dollars, that’s hopefully enough motivation to stick around.
Kyle: Sure, why not. I wouldn’t be surprised if next year is his last year in the NBA before going over to Greece
Who will win MVP, and where will Giannis finish in voting?
Morgan: Like, probably Jokic, since SGA got his. They and their teams aren’t going anywhere, and I imagine a random dark horse will pass Giannis when the Bucks don’t set the East on fire, so I’ll go with fourth.
Finn: Shai Gilgeous-Alexander will go back-to-back as the Thunder run through the West once again. Giannis will finish third with numbers and individual dominance too remarkable to overlook.
Jack: I reckon Giannis is in with a real shot this year. If he can get
this team—you know, the one national analysts are often crapping on—then that proves his case right there. But ultimately, it feels like the Thunder will dominate, and SGA has the best chance at winning it. GA finishes third, I’ll say.
Drew: I’m going to side with Finn here and go with Shai since he’ll be a superstar for a team I expect to roll again this year. I think Giannis and Jokic will be second and third in voting, in which order I’m unsure of. I don’t think our guy gets it done, but he’ll safely be top three in my eyes.
Jackson: I’m going to go out on a limb with a dark horse candidate and say Luka Doncic is going to win MVP this season. LeBron is going to miss part of the season early on, and from every indication, Luka has been a man on a mission this offseason. In terms of where the rest of the contenders stack up, I think it goes Jokic at two, Giannis at three, and SGA at four. I could see a world where the Thunder win closer to 60 games or even below that mark, which would take his case down a few pegs, especially if the Nuggets, Lakers, and Rockets give them as much trouble as I think they will. Giannis is seemingly destined to be the bronze medalist in the MVP race.
Van: Voter fatigue is real, and I don’t think Denver will have a big enough year for Jokic’s fourth honors. Meanwhile, I think Giannis is primed for a career high in assists while also maintaining 30 PPG, plus continuing to shoot well from midrange. Since I see the Bucks surprising some people with how competitive they’ll be, voters will attribute that to one of Giannis’ best overall seasons. I’ll take him to get runner-up for the first time. I don’t think Doncic will win one as long as LeBron is still around, so it’s SGA’s to lose. But I think Anthony Edwards will be the one who might sneak in at third over Jokic.
Zac: Championship parity up, MVP parity down. There are only a handful of truly MVP-level players in the league, and only two of those—Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic—have good enough squads to stack the wins needed for the award. Giannis will finish his customary third, while Jokic gets the hardware (yet again).
Nate: I really like the Ant pick, and while it’s certainly safest to assume some combination of Jokic, Shai, Giannis, and Luka comprises the top four, I’m going to go totally off the map and throw Cade Cunningham in the mix. Last year, he tied with Ant at seventh in the voting. He is 24, and if the Pistons get, say, the three seed in the East, he should be seriously considered. Last year, he averaged 26 PPG, 6 RPG, and 9 APG; if he ups that to 28, seven, and 10 while bringing a team from the 15 seed to the six seed to a top-three seed in just three years, that should be worth the nod.
Kyle: Edwards is going to lead Minnesota to a two seed in the West, and that will be enough for the voters to avoid giving Jokic, Giannis, and Shai another MVP. Giannis will likely finish fourth.
MVBNNG (Most Valuable Buck Not Named Giannis)
Morgan: If Kevin Porter Jr. were a building, he would be a church in a sinkhole. There is a massive gulf between his floor and his ceiling, especially compared to his teammates. Coupled with the opportunity to spend major minutes at the helm of this team, KPJ is “valuable” in the sense that where he ends up between his floor and ceiling is arguably the key determining factor for the Bucks’ performance this season.
Finn: Boring answer, but Myles Turner. He’ll likely be looked at to be the second scorer for the Bucks most nights, and how well he can perform in multiple schemes defensively could make-or-break the team’s season.
Jack: I’m going with Turner. His impact on both ends will be felt in a major way, and I can’t wait to see what he does this season.
Drew: I’m also going to go KPJ. Like Finn said, Myles Turner will be the second scorer on most nights, but I think a backcourt player taking a big leap to be that primary ball handler who can initiate offense with and without Giannis will be the most important thing.
Jackson: I’m going to join Finn here on this one and say Myles Turner. There’s a reason they felt comfortable cutting Damian Lillard to bring him in. He needs to be their second-best player, with KPJ coming in third in that department.
Van: It’s gotta be Turner, right? I don’t think he’ll be the second-leading scorer on this team, or even necessarily be the second option this year at all, but based on how they’ve used him in the preseason, the Bucks should be at their best when he’s on the floor. Even when Giannis sits, the pairing with Portis looked functional too.
Zac: KPJ is the guy for me. He’ll have the ball in his hands, space in which to create, and more importantly, a roster that
needs his skillset. I’m confident that KPJ’s run without Dame last year foreshadowed
everything Horst has done this offseason. I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: 2025–26 The Rebirth.
Nate: Safely, Myles Turner or KPJ. But I’m going to continue my odd picks and go with Gary Trent Jr. I think he’ll necessarily play a few more minutes per game this year, which will coordinate with a few more points per game (18 would be ideal, and right in line with his averages when he was closer to 30 MPG). I also think he’ll be their primary clutch scorer and guard the opponent’s best wing. He has a lot to play for this season, and I am going to take a swing and hope GTJ is up to the challenge.
Kyle: I agree with others and will choose Myles Turner. Milwaukee took a risk with their cap space, waiving Dame to bring him in, and he will have to fill a void left by Brook Lopez.
MIB (Most Improved Buck): Which Buck will take the biggest step forward?
Morgan: Can I say Myles? My heart wants AJG or Rollins, but my head tells me that they’ve already taken huge steps forward. Turner has always been a good player, but I think that–hot take–he will blossom next to one of the best bigs ever.
Finn: This is Ryan Rollins’ year. He’s a budding defensive demon with plenty of room to grow on offense as well. The former two-way player’s potential is well-recognized by Bucks fans, and the larger role he should command will put him on national radars too.
Jack: I’ll go with Ryan Rollins. There is so clearly untapped playmaking ability there that is just waiting to be unleashed. After this season, nobody will be calling my guy “Ryan Hollins” or “Ryan Collins.”
Drew: I have to say Rollins as well. He got forced into the fire a bit last year with Dame injuries, and I think that this year he’ll find his footing again and settle into a more stable role off the bench, where he gets to play to his strengths.
Jackson: I’m going to carry water for my colleague Kyle and say AJ Green. The Bucks paid him a lot of money on his extension, so I imagine they see another step coming from him for this season. I think he could become a top-end role player if he adds a little bit more to his three-point shooting profile and progresses on the defensive end again.
Van: This comes down to Kevin Porter Jr. and Gary Trent Jr. to me, because I think one of them will have a significant bump in production, even if they lose some efficiency due to their added volume. Someone has to replace what Dame was doing, and since I don’t think GTJ will quite reach his Toronto numbers, I think KPJ will look more like his final year in Houston, when he averaged 19.2 PPG on .442/.366/.784 in 59 games. I’m not saying he’ll get to those levels, but I see him improving to the tune of 16–17 PPG.
Zac: KPJ aside, Ryan Rollins has his name all over this. I simply can’t get Horst’s George Hill comparison out of my head—steady ballhandler, high-quality spot up shooter, elite defender. And he’s explosive too. With the additional long-term contract security and a clear role as part of the Bucks’ “Mosquito Fleet” off the bench, Rollins is oozing confidence and primed to make a leap. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him snag a few All-Defensive team votes.
Nate: Because of how solid he looked in preseason and how important steady ball-handlers will be to the Bucks, I’m going with Cole Anthony. Mostly out of necessity on a struggling Magic team, in his first few seasons in the league, Anthony was thought of as a potential 6MOTY candidate. Historically, Doc gets a lot out of young and talented guards, and if Anthony can take a leap this year, I could see him closing games and becoming a key piece late in the season.
Kyle: I am going with a dark horse answer now that he made the roster. Andre Jackson Jr. seemed to be out the door, but he survived. While his defense will get him playing time, there is a chance he can have some semblance of offense, which would be the biggest shock of them all.
This year’s fan favorite will be…
Morgan: Cole Anthony seems fun! I demand antics, and he seems likeliest to supply them.
Finn: Milwaukee faithful have already rallied around Ryan Rollins, and if he lives up to his breakout expectations, he’s only going to become more popular. A dark horse candidate here is Mark Sears.
Jack: Myles Turner. I mean, the guy is just the ultimate teammate, and the way he has ingratiated himself into the Milwaukee (and greater Wisconsin) community has been great to see. I think the fans will return that respect twofold.
Drew: Going to ride the excitement of a new face and go with Cole Anthony. Great-athlete bucket-getters off the bench are always exciting.
Jackson: I’m going with Rollins as well. He plays the game extremely hard and has a great story of how he has built himself up since coming to Milwaukee over two years ago. While he won’t play a lot, I’ll of course throw in Thanasis, who will be a great locker room guy and extra coach on the bench for Doc Rivers.
Van: Now that he’s back, Thanasis can resume his role as victory cigar. While yes, there are fans who decry his presence on the team, I imagine he’ll get a rise out of the Fiserv Forum crowd as he heads to the scorer’s table when a game hits garbage time, especially if the Bucks are ahead.
Zac: For as long as he’s with the Bucks, the answer is The Mayor of Milwaukee—at least
in Fiserv. By all accounts, Cole Anthony will make a push, though. Fans love a “little guy,” especially one with as much personality and flair as Anthony, who’ll have his fair share of highlight plays on both ends of the court.
Nate: Myles Turner! Love his on-court passion and his off-court goofiness. I always gravitate toward joy in basketball, and I feel like he radiates a passion for the game. Of course, Thanasis will be holding down the bench mob, but I’m excited for the momentum threes and blocks that Turner will bring to stoke the crowd.
Kyle: Bobby Portis is back, though he is not The Mayor of Milwaukee anymore (s/o Tommy and Big Frank), Cole Anthony seems to be a cool dude, and some good play will have Bucks fans liking him.
MCB (Most Cooked Buck): Which Buck will regress the most or be a fan not-so-favorite?
Morgan: He-who-shall-not-be-named.
Finn: There’s almost no way Kyle Kuzma can regress from where he was last year, so I’ll roll with Taurean Prince. He fell all the way out of the rotation in the 2025 playoffs, and while he could still provide some decent minutes in the regular season, he’s clearly not a guy the Bucks should rely on with any sort of weight.
Jack: Yeah, I’m with Finn. From what we’ve seen in preseason and from Doc’s recent comments, it seems like Prince’s role will be significantly reduced. Doc said that his aim for TP this year was to shoot spot-ups and not “do too much.” Music to my ears.
Drew: I don’t think there are high enough expectations for Kuz to regress, so I’ll go Prince as well and say Father Time catches up to him some more this season.
Jackson: I usually try to go outside of the box with some of these questions, but it’s unquestionably Kuzma, for the reasons laid out by some of the others here. Dark horse could be Andre Jackson Jr.; despite earning that last roster spot over Tyler Smith, he could be in jeopardy of barely seeing the floor. Maybe Prince loses a step, but if not, Jackson could be cooked.
Van: It’s Kuzma. No need to overthink this—a big chunk of the fanbase doesn’t like him, and I can’t blame them. So I’ll pick second place and say Amir Coffey. I don’t think anyone on this roster is “cooked” (though Prince or Harris might be), but I also don’t think Coffey will be particularly helpful, and people will be calling for him to be waived well in advance of his January guarantee date.
Zac: Cooked? Gary Harris. Fan Not-So-Favorite? Kyle Kuzma. Regress the most? Amir Coffey—I just can’t see him getting the playing time needed to do anything but regress (at least in comparison to what he did for the Clippers). Jericho Sims also needs to show a
lot more than he did in preseason, or he could be the one collecting DNP-CDs.
Nate: Sims looked pretty lost in the preseason, but I don’t know if he showed
enough last season for it to be considered a significant regression. I’ll agree with folks and say Taurean Prince. Last year, he stepped up when others struggled during the long regular season and played pretty much exactly how he was expected to. I value that he plays within himself, but that will probably be even more limited this season.
Kyle: Bucks fans will throw a ticker tape parade in February when Kyle Kuzma gets traded.
That’s what we think, but what about you? Feel free to weigh in on any of the above questions/topics in the comments.
