This Sunday, the
Cleveland Browns take on the Pittsburgh Steelers. Below, we analyze a few advantages, disadvantages, or general thoughts about the two teams before getting to our predictions for the game.
This is the Sword We Fall On
This is the tipping point. Last week, Cleveland blew their margin for error when the offense failed to close out the game in London, and the defense couldn’t stop a game-winning drive.
Now, the Browns find themselves with a a 1-4 record. It’s not good, but when you consider the fact that the Bengals are going to find it tough to win games and the Ravens only have one win so far, that means the AFC North is still wide open. How much do we believe in this year’s Pittsburgh Steelers?
The Steelers are 3-1 to start the year, and they are feeling the mojo with
Aaron Rodgers under center. But I also still look at them and am not convinced that they are more than an average team at best. Pittsburgh comes into this game ranked 30th offensively in yards, including 31st on the ground and 27th in the passing game. Even the Browns’ offense is better in all of those categories, although it’s pretty comparable. Pittsburgh is one of the worst teams in the NFL in time of possession. But they exceed Cleveland in the most important category: points per game. Pittsburgh averages 24.0 points per game, while Cleveland is stuck at 14.6.
It’s been rough defensively for Pittsburgh too. They are ranked 28th defensively overall, including 19th against the run and 30th against the pass. They are still near the top of the league in sacks per pass attempts. Cleveland still ranks near the top of the league in yards allowed.
If this game was just being judged on rankings, you’d say, “Oh, advantage Cleveland.” And maybe, just maybe, we’ll see that. The running game looked sharp last week with
Jack Conklin back, but those penalties and the play of
KT Leveston were unbearable. I expect veteran
Cam Robinson to offer stability there this week. If Pittsburgh’s defense has been vulnerable to the pass, then maybe we see Cleveland’s offense break out and pull off the upset. Home-field advantage is such an overrated concept in today’s day of age that it’s crazy Cleveland hasn’t won in Pittsburgh (during the regular season) since 2003. The Browns need this game to get right back in the thick of things. Being 2-3, with Pittsburgh only one game ahead in the win column, brings confidence back as the schedule gets easier. But, falling to 1-5 and chasing a 4-1 team feels like the season is done for.
Quick Hitters
Defensive coordinator
Jim Schwartz talked about who steps up with
Greg Newsome traded away:
“Well, it would be, it would be Tyson (Campbell). He just put boots on the ground. Yeah, he’s a veteran player. We’ve got players ready in less time than that. We have our intricacies, and we have a few things that we do uniquely, but we also do a lot of things that he’s done in the past. Late last night, watched some film of him, and it’s just a matter of him getting terminology down, and he’ll lean on the safeties and the nickels to communicate to him. And then if we need to, we’re excited about Dom Jones also. You know, Dom is sort of, he’s leaped every hurdle we put in front of him since he was an undrafted player. He played well in practice, he played well against Carolina in the practices, played well in the preseason games. He’s big, he’s strong, he plays square, and he plays physical – all things that we like. So, we’ll see where it is, because I haven’t even met him yet. He just put boots on the ground after getting his physical. So, we’ll see where it is and have a good plan for Sunday, whoever it is. But it’d be one of those two guys.”
Offensive coordinator
Tommy Rees was asked about
Cam Robinson:
“Yeah, hard week for Cam, right? I mean, you come here, and then all of a sudden you’re going to Europe. So, we felt like he did a nice job during the week. You know, we had a plan going in the game, get his feet wet a little bit, see how it continues to go and evaluate it from there. But he did a nice job for us a week ago, getting ready to play and we’ll continue to build on that.”
Special teams coordinator
Bubba Ventrone talked about how the Browns failed to down a ball near the goal line last week:
“Yeah, that was a tough one. We talk about that quite a bit, honestly, especially in our Friday meetings where we’re talking about more like situational type plays and just understanding, like the scenario there. It’s like you get a nice play from the gunner to bat the ball back. Just having an understanding and awareness that the ball’s coming back, and it’s not rolling toward the goal line to be under control on the recovery and just having that instinct and awareness to not dive on the ball and really just let the ball go and down it. I know he feels bad about it. He’s showing good effort, but we just need to better aware of the situation.”
Some other notes to look forward to:
- God, I am still rooting for Jerry Jeudy and want him to break out of his slump. It if just crazy to think how he has had an impactful drop each week. It’s time for Jeudy to be a difference maker the other way — but will Dillon Gabriel get him the ball? Last week, most of Gabriel’s passes went to positions other than wide receiver.
- This isn’t the Aaron Rodgers of old. He’s averaging 180 yards passing over the last three games, and also thrown 4 touchdowns to 3 interceptions in that stretch. The key is that Pittsburgh may be struggling, struggling, struggling, and then bang, he finds the clutch play. It’s worked so far, but Pittsburgh seems ripe to be shut down.
Predictions
Here are predictions from multiple staff members at DBN:
Chris Pokorny: “I really want to pick the Browns in an upset this week, but we’re back to a ‘prove it’ mentality. Until Cleveland proves they can score 20+ points consistently, how can we keep picking them? Also, the fact that the Browns haven’t won a regular season game in Pittsburgh since 2003 means that I should probably go with the odds rather than against them.”
Steelers 23, Browns 17
Jared Mueller: “While I do not think the Steelers are very good, it is hard to think that the Browns will be able to overcome the emotional drain of the loss in London, the long travel back, trading away Joe Flacco and Greg Newsome having an emotional impact and traveling to play their rival on the road. While I would not be shocked by a victory, I will not be predicting it.”
Steelers 24, Browns 20
Thomas Moore: “The Cleveland Browns had an extra hop in their step this week after rookie quarterback Dillon Gabriel threw a pair of touchdown passes in his debut to almost beat the Minnesota Vikings. The defense, meanwhile, was a bit quiet after allowing a late touchdown that denied young Mr. Gabriel his first NFL win.
Now come the hated Pittsburgh Steelers, sitting atop the AFC North Division like a colossus after vanquishing the likes of the New York Jets, New England Patriots, and the Vikings! As if that was not enough, the Browns have not won a regular-season game in Pittsburgh since 2003.
Never fear, Browns fans, because the energy is back now that Shedeur Sanders has ascended to the backup quarterback role. Surely, this will be the type of divine intervention that will rally the Browns to come back from the Steel City with a victory for the first time in 22 years!”
Browns 17, Steelers 14
Curtiss Brown: “Given how on edge this people have been about this football team the past couple weeks, talking about this team in a positive light feels like navigating a mine field. Anyway, let’s talk about the Pittsburgh Steelers. I don’t know if this team is good or not. They are the only team in the AFC North with a record above .500 but they have a negative point differential. Their last loss came against the Seattle Seahawks, in which they got outcoached and outplayed so it’s fair to question how they are when you look at their last 3 wins.
As far as the Steelers offense goes, it has a one dimensional feel to it but they were able to find some success running the ball against the Vikings during their Dublin game. Outside of DK Metcalf, their receiver room is a huge question mark and their O-line has improved in some areas. Defensively, the unit is old and is not nearly as good as they have been in years prior. Take that information as you may.
Could the Browns win this game? Maybe, but they havent won in Pittsburgh in a long time. Long lay off from traveling from London and trading cornerback Greg Newsome (who was an emotional spark plug and was playing well to start the year) could spell a disaster. But the Steelers have been prone to coming out flat and losing games they have no business losing. Who knows what happens on Sunday.”
Steelers 20, Browns 19
Barry Shuck: “The Steelers have an early grip on the division with a 3-1-0 record and sole possession of first place, but are they that good? They have scored 96 points, but allowed 98. Being in the minus column like this is usually reserved for mediocre rosters. Two of their wins are against the New York Jets and the New England Patriots, two trash clubs. They rank dead last in the league in passing yards (798). The Browns’ passing game is not much different, as they are ranked dead last in average passing yards per completion (5.2). So, neither team can throw it. But get this: Pittsburgh has the second-to-last amount of rushing yards with 320 yards. They can’t throw it, and they can’t run the ball. And yet, they lead the division. With the Browns’ defense, they should keep the Steelers’ offense in check. It should be low-scoring as neither team can score. Advantage to the home team.”
Steelers 17, Browns 13
Who do you think will win, Browns fans? Let us know in the comments section below.
