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Thursday Night Football Week 12: Bills at Texans Open Thread

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A big game in the AFC as the red hot Buffalo Bills offense will be on the road to take on the stingy Houston Texans defense. If I had to pick one team in the conference that would make me sweat if the Denver Broncos were to face them in the playoffs, it would be these Bills — who just happened to whip the Broncos 31-7 last January. I’d hope the New England Patriots would keep them in the wild card hunt and make them win a few games, hopefully, before a rematch in with Denver. So a loss tonight would be good… maybe.

Kickoff is set for Thursday, November 20, 2025 at 6:15 p.m. Mile High time at NRG Stadium in Houston, Texas and will air on Prime Video.

My Prediction​


According to FanDuel, the Bills are 5.5-point favorites on the road over the Texans. Houston’s defense is legit and should keep the game somewhat close, but you just never know with Josh Allen and the Bills. They could score 20 or 50. They are that much of a big play type team. I do think it’ll end up being closer, but not that close. Davis Mills is going to have his hands full and he’ll make a mistake or two against a team of this caliber.

Prediction: Bills 27, Texans 16

Open thread in the comments section below. Discuss the games action there!​


Source: https://www.milehighreport.com/game-day-threads/164395/tnf-bills-at-texans-week-12
 
How good has Jeremy Crawshaw been this season?

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The Denver Broncos drafted the only punter taken in the draft this year and let veteran former Bronco draftee, Riley Dixon, walk as a free agent. So far, Jeremy Crawshaw has been extremely good at the main job of the punter, which is maximizing field position. He has the most punts downed inside the 20 and the 10, but this has to tempered since he has the most punts with 57 in 11 games. He is near the top in % inside the 20 and the 10, but not leading.

Jeremy Crawshaw is having a good season, but not a great season. He leads the league in punts inside the 20 and the 10, but not in % inside the 20 and 10. Plenty of room for improvement.

Joe Mahoney (@ndjomo.bsky.social) 2025-11-19T17:05:50.227Z

His net average has suffered because he is focusing on direction and hangtime. His gross average and his net average are about average for the NFL. He has the third most touchbacks with 6 (two tied for most with 8).

Last season, I devised a metric that looks at punts downed inside the 10 and gives more value the closer you get to the goal line – with a punt downed at the 1 getting the punter 10 points, at the 2 getting 9 points, etc. While Crawshaw has 12 points downed inside the 10, he only has one downed inside the five (at the 5). So his precision punt points are average for the league at 28.

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Riley Dixon (and the punt coverage team) were absolutely deadly at downing punts inside the five last season.

Dixon got 6!! downed at the 1 last season. Dixon finished with 22 punts downed inside the 10 last season which was a record for the Broncos (data only goes back to 1994). Dixon is currently punting for the Buccaneers and has been a little better than Crawshaw at precision punting so far this season.

A recently found that PFF has average hangtime for punters. Crawshaw is currently 23rd in hangtime at 4.35 seconds. JK Scott is currently 2nd with an average hangtime of 4.75 seconds. I have to wonder how much the poor punting in the game against the Raiders hurt Crawshaw’s hangtime average.

If you care about PFF grades, Crawshaw currently has an overall grade of 71.7 which is 14th. As I do every year I will do my full league punting analysis at the end of the season.

For what it’s worth, there have been 62 punts downed inside the five this season and the most common outcome from those drives is a punt – 40% of the time. The next most common outcome is a TD at 19%.

End ResultCount%
Missed FG23
TD1219
INT711
Punt2540
End of game46
End of half23
Safety35
Field Goal35
Fumble35
Downs12

Source: https://www.milehighreport.com/denv...enver-broncos-jeremy-crawshaw-season-analysis
 
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