DENVER, COLORADO - JANUARY 17: Josh Allen #17 of the Buffalo Bills celebrates during an NFL divisional playoff football game against the Denver Broncos at Empower Field at Mile High on January 17, 2026 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Perry Knotts/Getty Images) | Getty Images
During the 2025 season, the Buffalo Bills’ passing game served as a complement to the offense’s dominant ground attack, with the team ranking 11th in passing yards (3,668 total) and tying for ninth in passing touchdowns (25) while averaging 216.6 passing yards per game. A look at advanced metrics reinforces a solid but not elite unit: 11th in passing DVOA (25.3%), seventh in EPA per dropback (0.09), and a 69.5% completion rate (sixth).
The group posted an 87.7
Pro Football Focus (
PFF) receiving efficiency rating (eighth-best), but lacked explosiveness, ranking 29th in yards per catch (11.6) as a team. Yet, in the playoffs — a 27-24 Wild Card win over the Jacksonville Jaguars, followed by a 33-30 overtime Divisional Round loss to the Denver Broncos — the pass catchers stepped up in spots, with 636 passing yards across two games. However, there were far too many drops and turnovers that proved costly.
As the second in a series evaluating the Bills’ offense for a potential 2026 Super Bowl run, we’ll apply what I’ve termed as the “Lofton Exercise” to categorize players as “game-winners” (elite talents who can single-handedly win multiple games), “win-with players” (reliable contributors who perform well but aren’t consistent difference-makers), or “needs improvement” (inconsistent or underdeveloped). After addressing the offensive line and running backs, I continue with a look at Buffalo’s quarterbacks and pass catchers (wide receivers and tight ends), both those under contract and pending free agents.
Without further ado, incorporating 2025 stats, postseason performances, and advanced metrics like
PFF grades, expected points added (EPA), success rates, and others to build my case, here are my rankings:
Game-Winners
These players stood out as elite talents capable of dominating matchups and carrying the unit in critical moments. Their performances were crucial for the Bills’ success.
QB Josh Allen
Despite playing through injuries and with a very questionable group of wide receivers, Josh Allen remained the franchise cornerstone and one of the league’s best (3rd in MVP voting) in 2025, throwing for 3,668 yards (11th in the league), 25 passing touchdowns (tied for ninth), and 10 interceptions, posting a 102.2 passer rating (seventh) and 65.4 QBR. His advanced metrics were elite: a
PFF passing grade of 87.4 (sixth among QBs), 0.09 EPA per dropback (seventh), a 7.0% big-time throw rate (top-five), and a low 2.6% turnover-worthy play rate. Allen also added 579 rushing yards and 14 rushing touchdowns, leading all quarterbacks in rushing scores.
In the playoffs, Allen threw for 556 yards, four passing touchdowns, and two interceptions across two games, including 283 yards and three scores in the loss against the Denver Broncos. His dual-threat ability earned him a Pro Bowl selection and MVP votes, in what looked like a down season for him.
Allen’s a true game-winner who can exploit defenses through the air and on the ground, as evidenced by his 177 first downs passing and 42 explosive plays (20+ yards). Turnovers in key spots (four vs. the Broncos) weren’t good, but if he’s not asked to do so much, almost by himself, all the time, with some better play around him, there’s no reason to believe Allen can’t keep his turnovers down when it matters most. He has certainly done enough to, by now, have at least made it to one Super Bowl in his career.
TE Dalton Kincaid*
Dalton Kincaid emerged as a mismatch weapon despite injuries, hauling in 39 receptions for 571 yards (14.6 average) and five touchdowns. His advanced metrics were strong: a
PFF receiving grade of 81.9 (third among TEs), 2.7 yards per route run (first), and 0.15 EPA per target (top 5). Kincaid’s 79.6% catch rate and 47.6 yards per game when healthy speak to his dependability.
In the playoffs, Kincaid caught nine passes (11 targets) for 111 yards and two scores. Despite a torn PCL limiting him to 12 games, Kincaid earned a Pro Bowl alternate spot. The former first-round pick has established himself as a game-winner with seam-stretching ability. He was a primary target for quarterback Josh Allen, and his 2025 season showed he can be one of the most productive tight ends in the league when healthy.
This “when healthy” part, though, is what makes me put an asterisk next to his name when thinking about him as a game-winner — after all, “the best ability is availability.”
Win-With Players
This group provided reliable, complementary production without consistently dominating. Their stats and metrics show solid contributions that help the team win, but which don’t carry games alone.
WR Khalil Shakir
Khalil Shakir led the receivers with 72 receptions on 95 targets for 719 yards and four touchdowns. His advanced metrics included a
PFF receiving grade of 70.5 (43rd out of 81 qualifying WRs), 1.69 yards per route run, and 7.5 yards after catch per reception (second in the NFL). Shakir’s 75.8% catch rate and low 4.8% drop rate underscored his dependability in the short passing game. He led the NFL with 173 yards of screen passes. In the playoffs, Shakir had 19 receptions (21 targets) for 157 yards.
I love Shakir and believe he still can be even more productive if used a little bit more downfield. However, with the role he’s had under Joe Brady, Shakir is a win-with slot specialist: consistent in the quick game but not a dominant outside threat.
The team still needs Kincaid inside and at least one better downfield threat who can win one-on-ones outside to complement number 10. Shakir can’t carry the burden and be a game-changer in the passing game by himself.
TE Dawson Knox
Dawson Knox’s blend of receiving efficiency and in-line blocking value still strengthens Buffalo’s offense, and he complements Kincaid well. In 2025, Knox caught 36 passes for 417 yards and four touchdowns, converting at a 73% catch rate and averaging 11.6 yards per reception — those are numbers that highlight his reliability as a secondary target. His
PFF overall grade of 68.6 ranked him 17th among tight ends, showing he remains a steady contributor in a position group where your top option hasn’t been available all the time. In the playoffs, Knox added six catches for 62 yards.
Beyond receiving, Knox’s ability to line up in-line and function as a blocker adds tactical flexibility. While he didn’t log enough snaps to earn a formal run-blocking grade, Knox’s usage in heavy sets and play-action packages demonstrates his value in helping Buffalo disguise looks and maintain balance.
He’s not worth his $17.868 million cap number, but I wouldn’t be surprised if a renegotiation — maybe even including an extension — keeps the veteran with One Bills Drive for the foreseeable future.
WR Brandin Cooks
Brandin Cooks, acquired midseason, had 24 receptions for 279 yards (11.6 average) and no touchdowns in 15 games (10 with New Orleans and five with Buffalo). His
PFF overall grade was 57.4, with an average depth of target of 14.7, and a passer rating when targeted of 92.4. Despite the quiet regular season, in the playoffs, Cooks became one of Josh Allen’s go-to targets, with five catches for 78 yards as someone constantly threatening defenses deep.
At this stage of Cooks’ career, if he comes back to Buffalo in the same role as one of the top three receivers, he should be listed among the “need better” group. Now, if he comes back affordably as the team’s WR4 option, as a guy who can rotate in and stretch the field, plus being an awesome role model for young receivers as a pro, he deserves to be in the “win with” group.
WR Tyrell Shavers
Tyrell Shavers saw increased snaps due to injuries and inefficiency in the wide receivers room, recording 15 receptions for 245 yards (16.3 average) and one touchdown. His
PFF overall grade was 72.1, with strong marks in run-blocking (78.4 grade, top-15 among WRs) and a 62.9% catch rate. Shavers forced 0.18 missed tackles per reception and led Bills wide receivers with a 2.1 in EPA per reception.
Time and again, Shavers showed that he deserved more looks, but has never truly received them. In the playoffs, Shavers had one catch for 14 yards before tearing his ACL and missing Buffalo’s last game.
Shavers’ combination of blocking prowess and opportunistic pass-catching, plus a feeling like there’s some untapped potential there, makes him a win-with depth player with special teams value.
TE Jackson Hawes
Jackson Hawes performed exceptionally well as a fifth-round rookie in 2025, largely operating as an elite blocking tight end and earning “secret superstar” status from
PFF. He was recognized as one of the highest-graded rookies and tight ends in the league, specifically in terms of run (74.2 grade, third best among NFL tight ends) and pass (78.1 grade, eighth among NFL tight ends) blocking. His 83.1 overall
PFF rating ranked second among all 2025 rookies and second on the Bills’ offense (behind only Josh Allen).
Hawes didn’t excel just at blocking, though. When his number was called in the passing game, he delivered, finishing the season with 16 receptions for 187 yards and three scores. His 84.2% catch rate and the 147.3 passer rating when targeted were impressive, even with a small sample size.
Hawes is still a developmental piece as the total package at the position, but in his role as the TE3, with good potential to become an excellent TE2, he’s a player the Bills can win with.
QB Mitchell Trubisky (UFA)
I’m not a big Trubisky fan and wouldn’t lose any sleep if he doesn’t come back during next month’s free agency. With that said, its hard to argue about the job he’s done as backup quarterback to Josh Allen. Trubisky was reliable and highly effective this past season, maintaining high efficiency without throwing an interception, as shown by his 137.0 passer rating.
In four appearances, Trubisky threw for 313 yards and four touchdowns. He earned a 76.2
PFF grade for his performance against the New York Jets in Week 18, his only extended playing opportunity. As long as Allen’s healthy and Trubisky isn’t asked to come in and win games, he’s fine as a backup option.
Needs Improvement
These players lacked consistency, often due to limited snaps, inexperience, or simply not being talented enough, even if some of them showed potential at some point. At this point in time, each of them requires more development for possible bigger roles.
WR Keon Coleman
In his sophomore season, Keon Coleman underperformed relative to breakout expectations, totaling 38 receptions for 404 yards and four touchdowns across 13 games. Instead of that breakout, he suffered through notable inconsistencies and disciplinary issues, resulting in healthy scratches and lost opportunities.
With other injuries opening the door for his comeback, Coleman played meaningful snaps in the playoffs, catching two of four targets for 46 yards and one touchdown, but dropping another one, in the end zone, against the Broncos.
Long story short, Coleman hasn’t earned the role and playing time he was given upon entering the league. The potential is still there, but there are no excuses for missing meetings and poor professionalism. This is the kind of stuff that makes people lose respect for a public person; it’s hard to rely on a player who can’t even be on time during preparation. Time will tell if he has what it takes to earn the respect of his teammates and coaches — and his playing time back.
WR Joshua Palmer
I hated it when this signing was made, and it seems I was right about this one.
After signing with Buffalo, Joshua Palmer was expected to be a key part of their passing attack, but struggled to find consistent chemistry and production, particularly after Week 1. Despite a solid 5-catch, 61-yard opening game, he only managed 17 more catches for 242 yards over his remaining 11 games.
I saw him as an average-level player being signed for a bigger role during the 2025 free-agency period, and the truth is that he couldn’t deliver. His 58.4
PFF grade ranked among the lowest-graded Bills offensive players in 2025, and his 2.5 yards after catch per reception and a 63.2 passer rating when targeted show that if he’s one of a team’s top three wide receivers, their WR2 and WR3 must be awesome. That’s not the case in Buffalo.
WR Curtis Samuel
Samuel struggled to stay healthy (again), often playing fewer than 20 offensive snaps in games during the regular season, serving as a deep reserve or 4th/5th option rather than a primary playmaker. He finished the year with seven catches for 81 yards and one score.
With the possibility of saving roughly $6.1 million in cap space by cutting ties with Samuel this offseason, I can’t see how he’s kept as part of the team going forward.
WR Gabe Davis
Coming back from an injury-plagued 2024 season and in a limited role, Davis was utilized in a different capacity than his early Buffalo years, showing a lower ADOT (9.6) than in 2023 (15.1), suggesting more intermediate work. His best performance of the 2025 season came against the Jets in Week 18, where he recorded five catches for 41 yards and a touchdown.
Davis ended up on Injured Reserve yet again after suffering another gruesome knee injury, and it’s likely he won’t be back anytime soon. He can’t be counted as more than an end-of-roster, reliable wide receiver who can block at this point.
WR Mecole Hardman Jr.
Another frustrating try to help a lackluster wide receivers room. Hardman signed with the Bills’ practice squad in November 2025 and was briefly elevated to the active roster, where he failed to secure his only target in two games and had one fumble, before getting hurt.
He was back for the AFC Divisional Round playoff game against the Broncos, where he scored a touchdown on a four-yard catch, but dropped his only other target during an important, possibly game-winning, drive late in the fourth quarter. He also had some opportunities returning punts, but couldn’t make any impact there as well.
Final Assessment
With Josh Allen as the only surefire “Game-Winner” on the list, General Manager Brandon Beane has to find ways to add at least one more player who can win games for the Bills in this group. Having Kincaid healthy for an entire year should help a lot, and Shakir’s contributions can be counted on, but it’s a group with no margin for error, often asking Allen to play near perfection (see the Wild Card game versus the Jaguars) to be able to beat the best teams in the league.
The lack of play makers who can create separation and make life easier for Allen — knowing (sometimes pre-snap) he has some advantageous matchups he can exploit without the need to hold the ball forever and scan the entire field, so somebody can finally get free (sometimes) — hurt the passing offense severely in 2025. Adding one difference maker should help Allen tremendously and make it easier for some of those other players to succeed in smaller roles.
Catch up on all this and more with the latest edition of
Leading the Charge!
