I already penned
one article pointing the finger at the Buffalo Bills’ offense for the loss to the Atlanta Falcons, and it felt so good I figured I’d come back for seconds. But seriously, while the last piece focused on attributing liability mostly to the offense, this one dives into the film to figure out why. I think there might even be a glimmer of good news for you at the end… if you stick around.
Let’s do a quick review of each of the Bills’ failed offensive drives and I’ll give you my opinion of what happened.
Drive 2: Punt
Almost all of the drives will have a clip of where I think the drive went wrong, and in all but this case it’s usually the last play of the drive (see below why that’s good news). This drive resulted in a three-and-out but this first play set a bad tone. This was a somewhat rare occasion where quarterback Josh Allen had a clean pocket and was able to throw a clean pass. Note that “able to” in this case refers to the potential, not the result. Allen’s throw was a bit behind and honestly that’s just a good breakup by the defender. Had the pass been out front more where tight end Dawson Knox caught it in stride, the hand in the air would have been irrelevant.
On the next two plays, a keeper by Allen was just completely covered by Atlanta. On third down, quick pressure on Allen forced the throw, but it was still pretty near to a perfect pass to Khalil Shakir who just couldn’t quite stay in bounds.
Drive 3: Punt
This drive was going okay until Buffalo reached midfield and Atlanta’s defense found their groove. A short gain by running back James Cook on first down was followed by good coverage from the Falcons on a passing down. Allen scrambled up the middle but was taken down for what was officially a sack, but for zero yards. Then the play above happened.
I hinted at some good news along the way and for those of you wondering why no Bills receivers were open during the game, I’d argue there were some good examples of available targets. In this case, the insanely quick pressure leads to a massive loss. You have
two free rushers coming for Allen in the same gap, who scrambles towards left tackle Dion Dawkins’ side. Dawkins however was put in conflict early staring down three defenders and was going to end up letting two by regardless. The one he made contact with was an attempt to push wide to buy Allen time, but Allen had to vacate the pocket backwards. That is, right where the third defender was pushed by Dawkins.
The play design does have a little blitz-beater potential built in over the middle, but Buffalo’s line may as well have not even existed on this play — and Allen had no time to even consider a blitz-beater toss.
Drive 4: Punt
This drive’s ending was solely on this play in my opinion. Buffalo had already gained one first down and set themselves up with 3rd & 3, which is certainly manageable. This throw by Allen was the entire culprit for the play failure. Wide receiver Tyrell Shavers was wide open and would hae easily gotten the first down but Allen’s throw looked more like a spike to stop the clock than anything else.
You could argue that maybe Allen’s hand was hurting, but that’s even more reason to softly lob the ball rather than this throw. To pile on, this was a decent rep for the offensive line in Atlanta, and Allen had space to throw this pass. I thought maybe the ball hit someone at the line, but that still circles back to the main premise: You need a softer lob here, which would have avoided that too.
I don’t want to condemn Josh Allen who rightfully earned the MVP last season and who also hasn’t fallen off any talent cliff. Quarterbacks make bad throws and this was one of them.
Drive 5: Punt
This drive had a couple reasons for failure, but even still the Bills had a chance to convert on 3rd & 6. A short pass to Coleman was followed by the controversial non-catch by wide receiver Elijah Moore. I think I like it as a catch but it’s gray-area enough to call it either way. If we’re comparing it to another one, I agree. Travis Kelce did not catch that football.
Back to this drive, we’re starting to see a trend with Allen having an off night. This throw was a bit off. But just as bad if not worse is wide receiver Keon Coleman’s route, which involved what should have been offensive pass interference and just an overall lack of polish. To make it worse, based on Coleman’s depth and Allen’s anticipated throw, it looks like the design was to get the ball short of the sticks and hope Coleman picks up the rest. I like Coleman a lot more than most fans, but even I’m not sold on that strategy.
Drive 6: Interception
We don’t need a GIF on this one and frankly I’m completely fine here. Yes I know we’ve all seen a team score a field goal with less than 15 seconds on the clock, but we all also know that’s not the usual scenario. The Bills took a shot and it didn’t work out. It was another bad decision by Josh Allen, but given the game situation a risky throw is better than no throw.
I could rip apart what Allen may or may not have seen, but I want to be clear that I don’t give a **** on this play. Atlanta made it tough to gain anything, Allen took the least-terrible option and it didn’t work out.
Drive 8: Downs
The Bills were actually driving down the field pretty well. A sack at midfield though pushed them back to 2nd & 18. It wasn’t the sack that killed the drive, though. On second down, Shakir picked up a nice chunk of yards and if it weren’t for a defender tenaciously holding his ankle he might have gotten an even nicer chunk.
The next play, Coleman picked up seven of nine yards needed to put Buffalo at 4th & 2. Atlanta’s defensive backs closed in quickly or Coleman may have moved the chains. Knowing the situation and pretty much needing to go for it, I think most of the time I’d be feeling pretty comfortable.
I want to be candid, I don’t hate the play call, though it’s also not my favorite. I don’t hate the flip rather than Allen turning his hips and throwing. I think there’s a good chance he’s caught if he slows down at all. It’s close enough at least where I get Allen’s decision. What I hate about this is that it’s very obvious there’s going to be a free rusher. Just look at the bottom of the screen. Knox ran a route and he was the only on that side that might even be close to blocking for that blitz.
There are several ways this could have become successful, but none of them were chosen.
Drive 9: Punt
I said in the last play I didn’t hate the play call. I wasn’t able to say that for the entire game. The Bills had gotten this to 3rd & 1, which should be pretty much automatic for them. This is a play where “hat on a hat” is necessary. In addition to the play call being a bit cute for the situation, they did not remotely go hat on a hat. AAAAAAAGGGHHHHHH!
Drive 10: Punt
Buffalo put themselves in a bad spot, as 3rd & 10 is never ideal. On the first play of the drive, there was an underneath option open to Allen that would have gained a big chunk but pressure led to another sack of zero yards. A poorly blocked second down and free rusher led to Allen trying to throw a blitz-beater to running back Ty Johnson, which got them nowhere.
On this third down though, Allen found his moment of zen. Despite a collapsing pocket he stepped up and threw the ball with solid mechanics. That makes the fact that the ball’s in a different zip code than Moore perplexing. I thought live that Allen’s arm was hit while throwing and I can’t rule that out, but couldn’t confirm it with any angle I found. It’s also possible that there was massive miscommunication on the route for this one.
Drive 11: Interception
This was truly just a great play by Atlanta beating what could have been a tremendous play from Buffalo. Allen had a shot at a touchdown throw but Zach Harrison tipped the pass up and it was of course caught by “Not A Bills Player.”
The Final Straw
I said there’d be a silver lining at the end and there are a couple. I saw opportunities for throws and play designs that had a chance of success. What went wrong was a combination of things. Josh Allen had a bad game. Offensive coordinator Joe Brady outsmarted himself more than the other team at times. Receivers made mistakes. The line was worse than turnstiles at times.
That doesn’t sound like a positive at all, now does it? It’s not. Not right now. The silver lining is that the comedy of errors are things that aren’t necessarily permanent.
We know what Josh Allen is capable of. I know Brady isn’t the most popular guy at One Bills Drive after the last few weeks, but Skare’s weakest-link theory would suggest that even if Brady is a weak link Buffalo has had a strong chain with him as offensive coordinator. The line can play ball, and should return to their usual form. I won’t make any promises that the Bills pull it all back together, but I will say that they have the pieces to spring back.
