The Buffalo Bills outgained the Philadelphia Eagles by 140 yards. They possessed the ball for 11 more minutes than their opponents. They were better on third down. They had nearly twice as many first downs as the Eagles did. They were essentially even in penalty yardage.
And yet, they came up short where it matters most: the scoreboard. Buffalo dropped a tough game to the defending Super Bowl champs, losing 13-12 in horrible Western New York rain. The loss dropped the Bills to the seven seed in the AFC while also giving the New England Patriots the AFC East Division title. It was not the outcome we or the team hoped for entering the day.
Buffalo certainly had chances to come away with a victory on Sunday, and they squandered those opportunities through a series of self-destructive plays. Our five players to watch were big contributors to the game, both to the positive and the negative.
Here’s how those five players fared in the loss to Philadelphia.
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QB Josh Allen
Statistically, Allen’s day doesn’t look too bad. He completed 23-of-35 passes in a driving rain, totaling 262 yards through the air. He didn’t throw a touchdown pass or an interception, though he had a touchdown toss to Dawson Knox (rightly) overturned by replay on the game’s final drive. Allen also rushed seven times for 27 yards, adding two touchdowns from one-yard out. He even completed a few deep passes to wide receivers, a shocking development given the year-long lack of production from that group.
However, it’s the negative plays that Allen had in the game that should be the focus. On Buffalo’s second drive, Allen fumbled in a comically bad way, rolling out to his right, extending the play, finding nobody, and trying to tuck the ball away when linebacker Jaelan Phillips didn’t buy a pump-fake. The ball slipped out of his hands, rolled backwards nearly 20 yards, and was recovered by the Eagles. If Allen throws the ball out of bounds and lives to fight another day, the Bills have 3rd & 2. Instead, the Eagles had prime field position and a first down. That was, at best, a seven-point swing, but if the Bills managed to score on that drive, it could have been even more.
Allen was confused by Philadelphia’s coverage more than once, as he anticipated man when the Eagles played zone, leading him to hold the ball, waiting for receivers running man-beater concepts to come open against zone coverages, which is a recipe for disaster regardless of the opponent. It happened on one horrible sack early in the fourth quarter. Allen waited for Khalil Shakir to come open — he didn’t — which prevented him from looking through his progressions and finding an open Ty Johnson in the flat. Does Johnson make up the eight yards needed for a first down? Perhaps. Even if he’s short, is it a better play than scrambling backwards 19 yards, thereby taking the Bills out of field goal range
and out of “go for it” territory? You bet it is. Allen has done this far too often this season, and whether it’s a product of his frustration with the offense or his own self-confidence to make a play, it’s been a glaring issue in far too many instances this season.
Allen also missed a wide-open Shakir on the game-defining two-point failure, a play that doesn’t even become necessary if practice-squad kicker Michael Badgley can kick a PAT high enough to avoid being blocked just five minutes earlier. The Bills had a great play call, as they faked the play I thought they were running (a naked boot to the offense’s right, which would have led to a target for Ray Davis in the flat) and snuck Shakir along the boundary on the offense’s left side. Allen didn’t set his feet, and he missed Shakir by a good three yards low and left. Ballgame.
Perhaps you think I’m being too harsh on Allen here, but if you’ve read what I write about him in spaces like these time and again, you know I’m not some blind hater. He’s gutting through an injury to his plant foot, something
I noted could cause issues with his mechanics and accuracy leading into the week. Throw in some bad weather and a very good Philadelphia defense, and it’s not necessarily a surprise that he wasn’t perfect. He also made some phenomenal throws (The ball to Tyrell Shavers? A work of art. A third-down pass that hit Joshua Palmer in the hands that he dropped, leading to a punt? Also perfect.).
With all of that said, I am exactly 0% worried about Allen moving forward. There isn’t a quarterback I’d rather have leading this team than him. He just has to realize that, sometimes, the best play is a layup.
RB James Cook III
The Eagles did a great job on the NFL’s leading rusher, holding him below his season average for yards per game and yards per carry. Cook rushed 20 times for 74 yards, good for just 3.7 yards per tote. On the season overall, Cook is averaging 100 yards per game and 5.2 yards per carry. Buffalo is used to gaining chunks of yardage on the ground, as Cook and the Bills average 156 yards rushing per game. They also have 21 runs of at least 20 yards on the season.
In this one, Cook’s longest carry went for just 10 yards. That’s the third-lowest “long” total he’s had this season, so the Eagles did a good job limiting those explosives on the ground. Cook saw four targets in the passing game, but he only caught one for a total of three yards.
Allen thought he had Cook on a mesh-rail toss on the play that immediately preceded the 19-yard sack early in the fourth quarter. While Allen dropped the ball perfectly in the bucket, it would have been a tough catch, as Cook was surrounded by defenders, one of whom was able to knock his left arm down before he could secure the ball. It was an example of the kind of game that went down yesterday, as the Bills did everything right on the play, but Philly’s defense was one step ahead.
WR Brandin Cooks
I don’t think I’d usually celebrate predicting that a veteran castoff who was acquired after he was waived midway through the season had a big game, but watching Cooks and Allen display a legitimate connection was promising. It started when Allen hit Cooks on a beautiful 50-yard strike in the first quarter, and while it set Buffalo up in prime field position, it was immediately squandered by the Keystone Cops-style fumble one play later.
Cooks made another long catch, as well, channeling David Tyree and using his helmet to gain 36 yards with less than two minutes remaining in the game, setting the Bills up with a first-and-goal chance that they’d cash in on fourth down. Cooks had two more grabs, as well, and both came in the fourth quarter. One was a nine-yard gain on first down, and the other was a six-yard grab on third down to move the sticks.
Cooks was the second-most targeted receiver with six, trailing only Khalil Shakir (seven) in that area. Cooks caught those four passes for 101 yards. He’s the Bills’ first 100-yard receiver since Shakir went for 110 yards against the Houston Texans.
If Cooks can provide a legitimate downfield threat when tight end Dalton Kincaid is healthy, it adds an entirely different element to this offense. It’s exactly what the Bills need moving forward. Given that they were able to do this even with Philadelphia’s excellent secondary in Kincaid’s absence with terrible weather, I am cautiously optimistic that it’s something to build on as the postseason begins.
DT Deone Walker
Walker was a menace in the middle once again, totaling three tackles, one for a loss, and plenty of disruption where he used his massive frame and incredible athleticism to impact the run game. The Bills held the Eagles to just 82 yards rushing, and Saquon Barkley had 19 carries for 68 yards. Tank Bigsby, who had rushed for 98 yards and a score over his past three games, carried just twice for seven yards. Buffalo was able to clamp down on the Eagles’ rushing attack, especially in the second half, where the Eagles gained just 16 yards total on their 18 plays.
You know what was almost cooler than watching Walker play great on 57% of the team’s defensive snaps, though? Watching some of the team’s other defensive linemen start to put it together as a unit. T.J. Sanders, another rookie, led the team in defensive line snaps, playing on 65% of them. He had just one tackle, but he looked good filling gaps and in pass-rush games. Andre Jones Jr. was active against the run yet again, notching a tackle on his 30% snap share. Phidarian Mathis had two tackles while playing 33% of the snaps. Larry Ogunjobi, who was a healthy scratch last week, also had two tackles while handling 31% of the snaps.
Quietly, Buffalo’s defense has improved as the year has progressed. They did their job on Sunday. If they continue to play at this level, the Bills can go a long way this postseason.
LB Terrel Bernard
Buffalo’s defensive captain had three tackles on the day. He played half the team’s defensive snaps, and all of his snaps came in the first half. Bernard left the game late in the second quarter with a calf injury and did not return.
As has become a pattern this year, however, the defense improved when Bernard was replaced in the lineup by veteran Shaq Thompson. Thompson appeared on 59% of Buffalo’s snaps, and he also posted three tackles in the game. One of his tackles went for a loss, as well. Thompson is a far more physical player than Bernard is, and at this point, he’s also the better player.
It might be a difficult conversation to have, but the team has to realize that its best chance is with No. 45 on the field at middle linebacker, not No. 8. It’s possible that Thompson isn’t the sole reason why the defense looks better when he’s on the field, just like it’s possible that Bernard isn’t solely responsible for defensive breakdowns when he’s out there. However, we’ve had enough time this season with Thompson playing in Bernard’s place to see the obvious. The Bills may be best suited by making a lineup change for the Wild Card Round of the playoffs — and hopefully beyond.
