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In his annual mock offseason, Aaron Leming spells out (almost) every move the Bears should make to get them back into contention. Be prepared, it’s a long read!
The start of the NFL’s “legal negotiation period” is a weekend away. The offseason has been more fun and engaging for
Chicago Bears fans than the product on the field from September through early January. With new life being breathed into the organization after a full-on coaching staff reshuffle, head coach Ben Johnson and his staff should heavily influence how the Bears approach the acquisition period.
For a third straight season, Chicago ranked near the top of the league in projected cap space. Thanks to general manager Ryan Poles’ conservative approach in the three previous offseasons, their ability to use simple restructures could free up another $69 million in cap space. That approach should still be used as a “break glass in case of emergency” route, but flexibility exists.
With a shiny, expensive new head coach and a front office that is motivated to win and win now, I’m expecting a more active free agent period than usual. After all, head coach Ben Johnson said it himself during his opening press conference: “The bar has never been set higher than it has been now.” His claims of them being ready to win and win now should be reflected in their approach this offseason, especially in free agency. The idea would be that with an expensive offseason, the team’s need for free agency in the coming years will be much more targeted and less reliant on filling multiple holes. With that in mind, let’s dive into yet another yearly Chicago Bears Mock Offseason.
What The Bears Will Be Working With (Finances):
2025 Cap Space ($279.2M + $5.084M rollover) $284.208M
Dead Cap: $4.052M
Current Cap Space (Top 51): $44.452M (Projecting veteran additions of Blackwell, Ogbongbemiga, and Smythe. Projected at -$3.98M)
Projected Draft Class: ($11.464M) $5.584M
In-Season Spending (53-man roster, practice squad, roster moves): $9M
Total Projected Functional Cap Space: $29.868M
Roster Specifics:
Current Roster: 54
Minimum Contract: $840K
Once the Bears reached the minimum 51 players on their 90-man roster, each additional signing, draft pick, or trade acquisition will replace the lowest contract on the Top 51 of the team’s roster. For example, if the Bears sign a player that accounts for a $2 million cap hit in 2025, that contract would replace an existing one of $840,000. Instead of absorbing the entire $2 million cap hit, the “true” cap consequence would be $1.16 million.
Unless that player is cut during training camp, the same thought process works when accounting for their upcoming draft class. The primary reason to point this out is to show players have “hidden savings” when signed, traded for, or drafted. Conversely, the same accounting purposes must be used if/when the team cuts a player. You’ll see two examples below.
According to Over The Cap, the Bears now rank 12th in total cap space ($51.382 million) and 13th in “effective” cap space ($43.278 million) after their two big trades along the offensive line. Effective cap space accounts for getting to the 51-player minimum and their projected draft class. It should be noted that this does not account for their recent futures signing of Maurice Alexander. It was, however, reflected in my numbers above. In addition to these numbers, they can save a maximum of $69.081 million from “simple” restructures or $112.1 million with “max” restructures. Without getting into much detail about this, max restructures are not something Poles will likely use due to adding in void years. Fans can still expect him to be relatively conservative regarding simple restructures. At most, I’d expect $20-25 million to come from restructures, if needed. In my mock, I choose to take advantage of one restructure for a player who will be here long after the impacts of dead money are an issue.
Defining the Bears’ Offseason Needs And Priorities
Top Needs (7): Center, Defensive End 2, Wide Receiver 3, Defensive Tackle 3, Tight End 2, Running Back 2/3, Long Snapper
None of the three starting interior offensive linemen from last year’s Week 1 depth chart are expected to be on the roster. We’ll see if they choose to re-sign Coleman Shelton as veteran depth and competition for a rookie. After Tuesday and Wednesday’s trades, center and defensive end become the top priorities. Defensive tackle depth with pass-rushing upside is another sizable need on the defensive side of the ball. Long snapper will be a need, especially with Patrick Scales’ back failing him. The right running back pairing is also needed in Johnson’s offense. Luckily, this is a historically deep rookie class. Finally, a starting third receiver will be necessary for this offense. The good news is that they have DJ Moore and Rome Odunze locked in for multiple years. Depth and speed should be a focus this offseason.
Other Needs: (6) Defensive End 3, Wide Receiver 4, Safety, Offensive Line Depth, Defensive Tackle 4, Kicker
This group of needs is essential, but there are more role players than starting players who could seriously factor into the upcoming season. Tight end will be important, as will better receiving depth. As Bears fans have learned, offensive line depth is also vastly essential and will need a boost, even if they re-sign Matt Pryor. Kicker competition might be needed, even if Cairo Santos is the favorite going in. Defensive line depth should also be a focus outside of adding a starting caliber name or two in the first wave.
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Dealing With The Current Roster
Cuts: (2)
Total Saved: +$9.27M (+$29.868.M) *Already Accounted For
TE Gerald Everett $5.5 million savings ($4.66 million true savings) Already Done
DE Demarcus Walker $5.25M savings ($4.41 million true savings) Already Done
Everett seemed easy to cut after posting just eight catches for 36 yards. That was coming off the heels of the veteran tight end signing a two-year, $12 million deal last offseason. Walker was more of a surprise. Despite being one of their better defensive ends, Dennis Allen and his new staff have bigger plans. Ryan Bates could be added to this list if they value Matt Pryor at a similar price, but for now, we’ll assume they keep Bates, and Pryor will get paid elsewhere.
Restructures: (1)
Total Saved: +$10.12M (+$39.988M)
WR D.J. Moore (Convert $12.65 million of his 2025 $20.65 million base salary to a signing bonus)
New/(Old) cap hits:
2025: $14.78 million ($24.9 million)
2026-2028: $31.03 million ($28.5 million)
2029: $27.03 million ($24.5 million)
For this scenario, we did a “simple” restructure, which takes the majority (but not all) of Moore’s 2025 base salary and converts that into a signing bonus. This move primarily aims to take that $12.65 million base salary (plus a $250,000 non-prorated bonus) and spread the dead money over the next five years. Although Moore’s cap hit will go up for the remaining years, it’s only at a rate of $2.48 million from 2026 through 2029. By the 2027 offseason, Chicago could still release Moore with a non-June 1st designation and save $20.5 million. In the grand scheme, it’s a minor move for the future while immediately giving the Bears an extra $10.12 million in cap space this year. As a reminder, any of the money that isn’t spent will be rolled over into next year’s cap total. It also gives them more flexibility for the offseason with limited impact on the future cap outlook.
Re-Signs: (9)
Total Spent: -$3.87M (+$36.108M)
LB Jack Sanborn 2 years, $5.5 million ($3.045 million guaranteed) (Comp: Robert Spillane), $2.5 million in 2025
CB Josh Blackwell *projected* 2 year, $5.5 million, $2.5M in 2025 *Already Accounted For
LB Amen Ogbongbemiga 2 years, $5 million, $2M in 2025 *Already Accounted For
DT Chris Williams 1 year, $2 million ($750,000 guaranteed)
CB Jaylon Jones 1 year, $1.5 million ($350,000 guaranteed)
LS Scott Daly 1 year, $1.17 million ($300,000 guaranteed)
Exclusive Rights: (5)
DT Jonathan Ford 1 year, $1.03 million
iOL Bill Murray 1 year, $1.03 million *Already Done
DE Daniel Hardy 1 year, $1.03 million *Already Done
In total, Chicago has 23 unrestricted free agents, five restricted free agents, and five exclusive rights free agents that simply require the Bears to say “yes.” For the sake of simplicity, I’ve opted to extend all five exclusive rights free agents a tender, which is what you see above. As for the restricted free agents, the tender values are as follows:
- First Round: $7.458 million
- Second Round: $5.346 million
- First Right of Refusal: $3.263 million
The tender meanings are pretty simple. If a team chooses to give a player a first-round tender, the price tag is the most expensive and would force any team who signs the player to an offer sheet to trade their 1st round pick in exchange (unless negotiated differently). The same concept exists for the second round tender. The First Right of Refusal (AKA, the “Original Round Tender”) means that a team can sign a player to an offer sheet, but the original tendering team has the choice of matching or refusing the offer.
The Bears have two candidates worthy of the lowest tender, Sanborn and Blackwell. It’s already been said that Sanborn will not be tendered, but I mocked both listed players to remain with the team on slightly different contracts. Sanborn will likely want to see what his market holds before returning. Blackwell is someone who could get done before Wednesday’s new league year.
Pryor and Carter would be the two names that “stick out” the most for their remaining free agents. Pryor could be re-signed as the primary interior backup, and Carter could be brought back as depth and a key special teams piece post-draft. For now, neither player was added to this exercise. I assume Daly stays at long snapper, considering Patrick Scales’ age and back issues. All in all, there shouldn’t be a lot of money spent on retaining players until they choose to bring back one of Teven Jenkins or Keenan Allen.
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Trades: (2) Total Spent: -$26.993M (+$36.108M) *Already Accounted For
- Bears trade 2025 6th round pick to the Los Angeles Rams for OG Jonah Jackson $11.833M cap hits for 2025 and 2026.
- Bears trade 2026 4th round pick to Kansas City Chiefs for OG Joe Thuney $16M cap hit for 2025.
Free Agents: (10) Total Spent: -$29.325M (+$6.783M)
While it would be fun to go through and project every minor free agent contract the Bears will sign, I will focus on the bigger deals and let the fillers fall where they will. As I wrote about earlier in the week, the Bears need to be aggressive and spend. They’re going into Year 2 of Caleb Williams’ rookie contract. They need to fully maximize this window, which involves taking more risks in free agency while waiting to pay their young players down the road.
DE Dayo Odeyingbo 4 years, $66 million ($39.5 million guaranteed) (Comp: PFF), $9M in 2025
Two weeks ago, when the Bears moved on from Walker, it became apparent that defensive end would be another focus for them during the offseason. Initially, I had projected Demarcus Lawrence in this spot on a short-term deal. Part of that was the timeline, and the other was annual average value. Since then, I’ve built in a minor restructure for Moore, which gives the Bears more money to go out and add an impact player to the defensive line. In an ideal world (for me), Chicago would spend a little more and add someone like Josh Sweat, Khalil Mack, or even Chase Young. Most of the smoke seems to be trending toward the former second-round pick. Odeyingbo had a career-high eight sacks in 2023 but dropped to three in 2024 despite having a higher pressure rate and a career-high seven stops at or behind the line of scrimmage. Overall, this isn’t the type of player who will be a perennial 10-sack-per-year player, but he’s big, well-rounded, and an ideal scheme fit under Allen. Coupled with a high-round draft pick, they could quickly remake their edge rushing depth.
C Drew Dalman 4 years, $56 million ($30 million guaranteed) (Comp: PFF), $8M in 2025
Call it a pipe dream, but landing the top center and another starting guard on the free agent market would be an excellent start to building a sustainably good offensive line. Dalman’s likely not worth $14 million per year, but it’s likely to happen in this market. Due to the Falcons’ cap issues, he’ll likely have to get that money outside of Atlanta. The 26-year-old has graded out as PFF’s 4th and 3rd best center over the last two seasons. He might be a little athletically limited, but he fits well in a zone-based blocking scheme. After listening to Johnson speak during multiple media appearances, I know he will greatly value a veteran center. If they miss on Dalman, veteran Ryan Kelly or Josh Myers could make sense. Make no mistake, though. Both would be sizable downgrades from Dalman.
DT Javon Hargrave 1 year, $5.125 million ($4.625 million guaranteed) (Comp: Folorunso Fatukasi)
Assuming the Bears choose not to actively pursue Milton Williams, they’ll have many options for veteran pass-rushing defensive tackles. Because of the oversaturated market, that should knock the overall prices down and help Chicago land a formidable DT3. Hargrave is someone that Poles heavily pursued a few years ago before signing in San Francisco. His impact wasn’t nearly what the 49ers had hoped for, but there’s still plenty of juice to be squeezed in a reduced role. This would go a long way in helping give the Bears some credibility on the defensive interior of the line.
TE Durham Smythe 1 year, $2 million ($1 million guaranteed) (Comp: Marcedes Lewis) *Already Accounted For
Following Everett’s release, some work must be done at tight end. Initially, I was going to project someone with a little more receiving ability, but according to the Chicago Tribune’s Dan Wiederer and Jeremy Fowler at ESPN, Chicago has their sights set on a familiar face to their head coach. Johnson spent a year with Smythe in Miami. The Notre Dame product isn’t much of a receiving threat, but he’s a credible blocker, which is something that Johnson values highly in his offense. This won’t preclude the Bears from taking another swing, and in an ideal world, the 29-year-old will play that Brock Wright role for Chicago this upcoming season.
WR Elijah Moore 2 years, $8.5 million ($5.7 million guaranteed) (Comp Devin Duvernay), $3.75M in 2025
There’s a chance I’m getting a little too greedy regarding receivers, but with more pressing needs for the draft, the Bears should seek to upgrade their speed with a cheap free agent option like Moore. Although he hasn’t lived up to his draft status as a former second-round pick, he can bring value to this offense in the right role. Despite playing in Cleveland with a nightmare quarterback situation, the 25-year-old produced 538 yards receiving. He’s also got some special teams experience as a returner, which will be key for another WR4 on the roster.
WR Tim Patrick 1 year, $3 million ($2 million guaranteed) (Comp: DJ Chark)
Unlike last season, when it felt like the Bears had three potential No. 1 receivers on their roster, their approach will be more calculated this year. Simply put, this team needs receivers who can separate and, more importantly, know their role. Patrick sustained back-to-back season-ending injuries in Denver but settled in nicely last year as Detroit’s third receiving option. At 32 years old, Patrick’s big paydays are behind him. Instead, he’d follow Johnson to Chicago and provide a safe No. 3 option. This type of move would provide value in more ways than one. He’d be a solid No. 3 or No. 4 option in this offense, would come cheap, and having a voice in the offense who knows the offense would be valuable for a second-year quarterback.
S Marcus Williams 1 year, $3 million ($2.745 million guaranteed)
A few weeks ago, I highlighted some veteran players who could be a fit with the new coaching staff. A surprisingly large group of safeties came from Allen’s background in New Orleans. Most might remember Williams’ blunder against the Minnesota Vikings in the NFC Divisional Round years ago. He has gone on to have a good career but took a step back in his lone year in Baltimore. Even though he’s just 29 years old, he’ll be looking to rebuild his value on a one-year deal. In some ways, it’s similar to Tashuan Gipson’s situation when he came to Chicago. The good news is that he wouldn’t be pressed into starting duties unless he beats out Kevin Byard or Brisker gets hurt again. There’s not much downside in a move like this, even if it provides better depth for one year.
QB Teddy Bridgewater 1 year, $2.25M (Fully guaranteed)
Call it a gut feeling, but something tells me that after last year, the Bears will want a veteran quarterback behind Caleb Williams in 2025. They’ll have many options, and most shouldn’t be too costly. It would make the most sense for them to bring in someone who already knows Johnson’s offense, which is why Bridgewater could be a worthwhile one-year investment. His story back to the NFL last year was a surprise, but if he’s ready to commit to another season in 2025, this is as close to a no-brainer as it gets. This doesn’t mean Tyson Bagent won’t stick around, but it allows them to have another adult in the room to help guide Williams during a pivotal year of his development.
DE Payton Turner 1 year, $2 million ($500,000 guaranteed)
Admittedly, the Walker release caught me by surprise. I figured that for less than $6 million per year, he’d be an ideal candidate to be their first defensive end off the bench to start the season. Obviously, the hope is that someone like Austin Booker can develop and take the next step, but most teams can do a lot worse than Walker as their third edge rusher. I’m guessing they’ll add one starting-caliber player and another upside gamble. Turner has been disappointing since being drafted, but he’s an Allen product from New Orleans. There’s not a lot to lose with this type of gamble. At worst, he’ll provide some depth.
OT Dan Skipper 1 year, $1.5 million (Fully guaranteed)
Swing tackle might not be a significant need, depending on how free agency and the draft play out. Even so, there’s always value in having a player like Skipper, who knows the offense and can be a part of the special packages that Johnson often deploys. Skipper’s PFF grades aren’t excellent in limited action, but his value would go beyond the value of him coming off the bench. At this point in his career, contract offers should be relatively similar in terms of value. The bigger pull will come from the guaranteed money. At worst, fully guarantee his contract. Either way, getting him to Chicago shouldn’t be a heavy lift.
Extensions: (1) Total Spent: -$2.5M (+$4.283M)
NCB Kyler Gordon 3/$30.75M $20M guaranteed (Comp: Taron Johnson/Michael Carter) -$2.5M
If Jaquan Brisker had stayed healthy, he’d be right up there with Gordon for an early extension. Unfortunately for him, he missed all but five games in 2024 after sustaining a concussion against the Carolina Panthers. He has yet to play an entire season at the NFL level, but with a healthy 2025, maybe he will receive his own deal. With Gordon, it seems like a no-brainer. Johnson and defensive coordinator Dennis Allen called Gordon out at their press conferences. Price will be key here, but this would line up with him being paid like one of the top nickels in the game. This aligns with what he should receive unless they plan on giving him a more versatile role.
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2025 NFL Draft
Draft: (1st, 2nd, 2nd, 3rd, 5th, 7th, 7th)
Previously Acquired Picks:
- 2nd from Carolina (For 2023 1st overall pick)
- 7th from Cincinnati (For Khalil Herbert)
Previously Traded Picks:
- 4th to Buffalo in 2024 for the selection of DE Austin Booker
- 6th to Cleveland in 2024 for DT Chris Williams
- 6th (from Pittsburgh for Justin Fields) to Los Angeles Rams for iOL Jonah Jackson
Projected Trades:
- #10 to Miami for #13, #98, and #135
The Picks
1st (#13) RB Ashton Jeanty (Boise State)
So… Here’s the thing. A few years back, I laughed at the Lions when I believed they “reached” for Jahmyr Gibbs in the first half of Round 1. Turns out, I was wrong. A big reason why is Ben Johnson. Much of his offense relies on a strong and versatile run game, so I’m not discounting the viability of Jeanty being the Bears’ pick in the opening round. Positional value be damned. This is not a strong draft when it comes to top-end talent. Sure, Chicago could take someone in the trenches, but there’s a strong chance that none of them will be as good as what Jeanty will be at the NFL level.
Jeanty is far from a burner, but he’s an excellent all-around back who could truly help this offense. Not only is he a strong runner with breakaway speed, but he has good vision. He’s surprisingly polished as a pass blocker, and although he wasn’t utilized a lot as a pass catcher out of the backfield, that’s another tool he has in his bag. A pick like this is heavily predicated on the assumption that the Bears will do enough in free agency to make taking a skill position player justifiable. My free agency projections have done that and allow the Bears to get the best value in rounds two and three. They also gain a few additional picks with a slight trade-down.
2nd (#39) DE Princely Umanmielen (Ole Miss)
The defensive line and developmental offensive line depth become the forefront of the Bears’ focus over their next set of picks. Historically, Allen has preferred bigger, longer defensive ends. Umanmielen doesn’t check all those boxes, but I like his overall skill set a little better than that of someone like Landon Jackson this early in the second round. Who knows, maybe Poles can trade down again and pick up another pick, but for now, this is a pick that makes the most sense to me. The Ole Miss product will moonlight as a rotational piece and someone who can be on the field in obvious pass-rushing situations when they kick Odeyingbo inside. Bill Johnson and Jeremy Garrett are about to get a pair of developmental pieces they can mold into key contributors over these next two picks.
2nd (#41) DT Alfred Collins (Texas)
As an Oklahoma die-hard, this hurts my heart to mock, but Collins is a “draft crush” of mine. Texas has done an outstanding job of producing NFL-caliber defensive linemen over the last few years, and Collins is the next generation in that line. This is a deep defensive line class; sometimes, projection is needed when figuring out who will have the best career down the line. He came in hitting all the measurements Allen looks for in a defensive tackle and tested decently well for being over 330 pounds. He’ll need to develop his pass-rush arsenal, but he has the makings of one of the better defensive tackles in this deep class.
3rd (#72) iOL Tate Ratledge (Georgia)
Like former teammate Jared Wilson, Ratledge tested off the charts at the combine. Ratledge is a quality guard prospect who posted a 9.98 RAS. He’ll need to add a little weight at the NFL level, but allowing him to grow into the position as a reserve will work well in this case. Returning to offensive line coach Dan Roushar’s time in New Orleans, he was a master at developing young interior linemen into
Pro Bowl players. With Jackson projected as the starting left guard, Ratledge has some time to develop. Even with Pryor on the roster, the Georgia product could see time later in the season if injuries arise.
3rd (#98) TE Harold Fannin Jr. (Bowling Green)
Tight end is a spot where I’m unclear about the overall plan. Is Cole Kmet still viewed as a long-term piece in Johnson’s offense? How much will the team’s new head coach value tight ends who can block? Once those are answered, the focus will turn to how these guys come off the board. This is a deep group, and there should still be some fun names on the board at No. 98, but I’m not sure who that’ll be. Fannin was highly productive in college but has some versatility concerns at the next level due to his size and skill set. Maybe Gunner Helm drops more than expected after a rough combine due to his sprained ankle? Only time will tell. Just know that this should be a prime spot for a developmental tight end.
4th (#135) S Billy Bowman (Oklahoma)
Safety is another area where the immediate need might not exist, but someone like Bowman makes sense with Kevin Byard on the last year of his deal and on the wrong side of 30, plus Jaquan Brisker’s long-term health is a concern. In all reality, Bowman is probably better off being closer to the line of scrimmage. He’s on the smaller side but a good athlete who can make plays on the ball in a two-high look. He’s a little bit older of a prospect, but his leadership traits and overall instincts are undeniable. This is the type of gamble the Bears should take a year too early instead of a year too late.
5th (#149) iOL Joshua Gray (Oregon State)
Hats off to Poles and Johnson so far on rebuilding the interior of this offensive line. Once Trey Smith was taken off the market with a franchise tag, it became clear that the Bears would need to get creative to drastically change their offensive line. Both Jackson and Thuney should be good fits in this offense, but both are coming on expiring deals. Jackson must prove he can stay healthy and round back into form, or he won’t make it to Year 2 of his deal. Thuney will likely get an extension in Chicago but will be 33 before the start of Week 1. This isn’t a complaint about how the team has reshaped this group but also an acknowledgment that good things don’t last forever. Enter Gray. This pick comes with some familiarity, as the Bears’ new assistant offensive line coach, Kyle DeVan, spent the last few years with Gray at Oregon State. I’m not sure what the ceiling is here, but this is the ideal developmental piece to bring in and see if this coaching staff can build him into a cheap starter in a year or two.
7th (#235) LB Jay Higgins (Iowa)
Projecting positions like linebacker this late in the draft is always a shot in the dark. More than anything, this is more of a concept that the Bears will need to add some young linebacking depth. Higgins showed well for Iowa over the last few years and graded out as one of PFF’s best college linebackers. He doesn’t have great size, and his skill set is limited, but this type of pick can at least get production in Round 7.
7th (#242) K Ryan Fitzgerald (Florida State)
Some might view drafting a kicker as a sure-fire way to replace Cairo Santos. In reality, a late seventh-round selection is simply a way to lock up someone the team would pursue as a priority undrafted free agent just hours later. At worst, Santos needs to be pushed. Although he’s still accurate and reliable inside the 40, his lack of leg shows up at the worst times. In a cold-weather city like Chicago, finding someone with a modern-day NFL leg should be a priority at some point soon.
Depth Chart:
QB: C. Williams/Bridgewater/Bagent/Reed
RB: Jeanty/Swift//R.Johnson/Wheeler/
TE: Kmet/Smythe/Fannin Jr./Wilson
WR1: D.Moore/Moore
WR2: Odunze/Scott
WR3: Patrick
LT: Jones/Amegadjie
LG: Thuney/Bates/Gray
C: Dalman/Stromberg
RG: J. Jackson/Ratledge/Murray
RT: Wright/Skipper
LDE: Sweat/Booker/Hardy
3T: Dexter Sr./Hargrave/Williams
NT: Billings/Collins/Pickens/Ford
RDE: Odeyingbo/Umanmielen/Turner
WLB: Edwards/Sewell
MLB: Edmunds/Ogbongbemiga/Higgins
SLB: Sanborn/Bozeman
CB1: Johnson/Smith/Speed
CB2: Stevenson/Jones
NCB: Gordon/Blackwell
FS: Byard/Williams/Hicks
SS: Brisker/Bowman/Owens/Coleman III
K: Santos/Fitzgerald
P: Taylor
LS: Daly
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