Kirby Lee-Imagn Images
The 49ers sprung a surprise by selecting Jordan Watkins in the fourth round of the 2025 NFL Draft, but it could prove to be a masterstroke of a pick.
As I
detailed ahead of the 2023 NFL Draft, the
49ers – in the first half of of the Kyle Shanahan-John Lynch era – had a track record of selecting wide receivers who were among my favorite prospects in their respective classes. A three-year run saw San Francisco take wideouts to whom I attached the label ‘draft crush’ as Dante Pettis, Deebo Samuel and Brandon Aiyuk were selected in consecutive drafts.
In more recent years, however, the shared appreciation for the same wideout prospects had not been apparent. Neither Elijah Moore in 2021 nor Jonathan Mingo in 2023 were selected by the 49ers. Danny Gray was not somebody near the top of my list in 2022 and, though I’d done some work on the latter, the selections of Ricky Pearsall and Jacob Cowing honestly caught me off guard last year.
This year, however, marked a return to past form – somewhat.
I say somewhat because I only started watching OIe Miss receiver Jordan Watkins after I knew the 49ers had hosted him for a top 30 visit, and San Francisco consistently drafts at least a couple of players with whom they hold visits.
But in turning on the tape, the understanding of why the 49ers were interested took hold swiftly.
The immediate reaction of many to seeing Watkins go with the 138th pick in the fourth round was to label him a reach. Yet Watkins was the 29th receiver on the big board of Dane Brugler of The Athletic, and he was the 21st receiver taken – hardly a massive gap when we’re talking about a day-three pick.
More importantly, watch Watkins in college, and it should quickly become obvious why the 49ers felt the need to add him to their stable of receiving weapons. The short version – Watkins is a receiver with the skill set to thrive in the Shanahan offense who perfectly fits where the 49ers’ passing game is going. Here’s the long version….
An explosive technician
Some of the critiques of Watkins concern the limited route tree he ran at
Ole Miss and the fact that much of his production in 2024 came in a bonkers 254-yard, five-touchdown display against Arkansas. At 5ft 11in and 175 pounds, he’s also a little undersized.
All those criticisms, while valid, do not outweigh a skill set that should translate excellently to the pros and particularly well to the 2025 version of the Shanahan offense, with Watkins winning in large part because of his route-running ability and his speed.
The route tree in college may have been simplistic, but Watkins ran a greater variety of routes than any of his Ole Miss teammates. Per Sports Info Solutions, Watkins ran 34 unique routes, putting him in the top 20 in the draft class at the position. That number was 10 more than teammate Tre Harris, who went in the second round to the Los Angeles Chargers.
On top of that, Watkins’ approach to route-running is already quite well refined. He excels at creating leverage with his release as he consistently gets cornerbacks to turn their hips and open their inside shoulder, with the 4.3 speed he displayed in the pre-draft process allowing him to take advantage of that leverage by getting vertical and stacking defenders on downfield routes.
But Watkins isn’t just a straight-line athlete, with stop-start and change-of-direction quickness key parts of his game, helping him regularly create separation with double moves that have consistently proven effective.
Watkins won’t just be able to rely on his agility and his speed at the highest level. Helpfully, though, he has shown some promise in an area of the game that has recently caused some issues for the 49ers and their receivers.
Not such a pressing concern
It’s no secret that the 49ers, ever since the Super Bowl 58 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, have had issues beating press coverage. Samuel, for whom that appeared to be his kryptonite, has obviously now moved on, and Aiyuk and Jauan Jennings have previously shown an ability to win against press.
Yet, given their recent struggles against it, the question of being able to beat press is going to be asked of any 49ers wideout.
At his size and given the offense in which he played in college, it would be unfair to expect overcoming press to be a forte for Watkins, but there have been some encouraging signs.
Take for example, this catch and run from the bowl game against Duke. Watkins defeats the attempt at a jam from the corner with a quick swipe of his hands and uncovers into open space over the middle, showing the ability to create yardage after the catch thereafter.
This touchdown catch in the rout of Arkansas was against a defender playing off, but Watkins still fought through contact, using his quickness to get open on the deep post and stroll into the endzone.
Is it the most physical coverage you’re likely to see? Far from it. The draft, though, is about projection, and there’s tape that makes it easy to project Watkins succeeding when defenders get physical because of his athletic gifts and his route-running savvy.
The 49ers are going to continue to see physical man coverage after a season in which they had limited success against it. In 2024, Watkins caught 13 of his 14 targets against man coverage for 280 yards and four touchdowns.
The sample size is small, but there’s evidence to suggest Watkins could eventually help the 49ers in a problem area. Yet perhaps the most intriguing aspect of Watkins’ game is what he does at the catch point.
Keeping things on track
Watkins did commit five drops in 2024 but, as Kyle Shanahan articulated in his post-draft press conference, the 49ers were impressed with the concentration he displayed as a catcher of the football.
Shanahan said:
“Love his speed. First thing you notice when you see a guy for the first time, you look at his 40 time, then you watch his routes at the Combine. I thought he was one of the better route runners at the Combine, just with natural receiver skills and everything. You watch his hands, he was our best graded-out guy going through the gauntlet and stuff with just true natural hands. Watched his one-on-ones at the Senior Bowl and then to how he played at Ole Miss, talking to Lane Kiffin, the whole package. We love the guy. Think he’s got a great skillset and needed to add him to the group.”
The fact the 49ers grade the gauntlet speaks to the importance of a Combine drill that has previously attracted some skepticism, and his performance was reflective of his skills at the catch point.
Watkins tracks the ball extremely well. He displays the body control to be able to adjust to inaccurate passes. When he finds the ball early and has time to judge its flight, Watkins will alter the path of his route to put himself in the best position to make a play on it.
Though Watkins was not consistently asked to go over the middle of the field and catch the ball in traffic, the proficiency he demonstrated at Ole Miss in bringing in passes with defenders nearby points to him being a player who won’t have too much difficulty rising to the challenge of operating in the congested area in the pros.
Watkins’ touchdown on a stop-go double move against Oklahoma was a prime example. Watkins knew he was going to get hit by the deep safety as he surged down the left sideline, but his focus never drifted from the ball as he looked Jaxson Dart’s pass into his grasp for the score.
There weren’t many instances of Watkins having to catch in traffic in his exhibition of utter dominance against Arkansas, but he did so effectively on his deep out route in the win over the Razorbacks. The timing with Dart was a little off, so Watkins had to slow his route to adjust, allowing the defender originally tasked with defending the flat time to close to the ball.
Watkins not only made the catch, but bounced off the defender for extra yardage. It’s not the same as having to go over the middle of the field with the distinct possibility of being hammered by a second-level defender, but the skills Watkins has showcased at the catch point are transferable to that task.
And, as it pertains to doing damage after the catch, you don’t need to squint very hard at all to envision Watkins doing that in the NFL.
YAC bro potential
A player with Watkins’ speed is always likely to be a natural YAC threat, and that proved to be the case in his time with Ole Miss. In his final season with the Rebels, Watkins averaged 6.9 yards per reception.
That may not be an amount akin to Deebo Samuel at his peak, but it still saw Watkins rank tied 16th among all receivers in the 2025 draft class, per Sports Info Solutions.
While his YAC average is likely to be, at least in part, the product of him getting over the top of defenses and making big plays downfield, Watkins has also demonstrated the elusiveness and contact balance required to evade and slip through tackles consistently, doing so on one of his two touchdowns against Duke.
With Shanahan’s unmatched aptitude for putting players into open space, there’s clear potential for Watkins to quickly blossom into a more dynamic YAC threat operating within the 49er scheme. However, the selection of Watkins is an astute one by San Francisco because there is no projection required to see him thriving in an offense that has become increasingly reliant on dropback concepts and Brock Purdy’s willingness to push the ball deep.
In his final season in college, Watkins ranked fourth in the FBS among wideouts in passer rating when targeted (135.4) on throws of 20 yards or more (min. 20 targets), per PFF.
Despite high praise from his head coach and tape that indicates he is a strong fit for both the traditional Shanahan offense and a 49er passing game that appears to be shifting away from the foundations that had previously made it successful, it may be some time before Watkins sees regular offensive snaps.
Watkins said as much in his post-draft media session, telling reporters:
“So, they kind of spoke to me about what it takes to be a 49er, especially as a rookie in coach Shanahan’s system. It’s going to be tough. It’s going to be hard to be able to work my way up onto the field as a rookie.”
The prospect of batting with Aiyuk, Jennings, Pearsall, Cowing, and Demarcus Robinson for snaps is a daunting one for a rookie receiver, and the sheer level of competition figures to make his path to getting on the field very difficult.
Yet difficult does not mean impossible. Watkins was able to stand out in a similarly crowded receiver room at Ole Miss and, with the comments he made after the draft, Shanahan clearly believes it is feasible he could overcome the odds and make an impression early.
Hope for Watkins can be connected to uncertainty around Brandon Aiyuk’s injury status, a possible suspension for Robinson, and a 2024 rookie season from Cowing in which he evidently did not win Shanahan’s trust.
That confluence of factors could create an opening for Watkins to see snaps early in the role of deep threat that is becoming more important to this offense. If Watkins can quickly earn Purdy’s trust and does indeed get an early opportunity to contribute, he could soon change the minds of many and start to establish himself as a day-three steal for San Francisco.
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