Unpacking the Atlanta Dream’s fourth quarter woes

[Atlanta Hawks]

Unpacking the Atlanta Dream’s fourth quarter woes

The Atlanta Dream fell to the Las Vegas Aces on Tuesday night despite leading by ten points entering the fourth quarter. This marked the fourth time in 2025 that Atlanta has lost a double-digit lead. What is happening to the Dream in the fourth quarter of games?

Atlanta has held a lead against every team in the league​

The Atlanta Dream have held a lead in every single game of the 2025 season. With the exception of the loss to the Dallas Wings on June 24th (in which Atlanta shot 23.4% from the field, including 7-34 from three-point range and 72% from the free throw line), Atlanta has led by multiple possessions in every other game. Even in their two losses against the reigning WNBA champion New York Liberty, Atlanta led by 17 and 19 points.

Date	Opponent	Final Score	Atlanta’s Largest Lead
May 16	@ Washington Mystics	90-94	12
May 22	vs. Indiana Fever	76-81	9
June 6	@ Connecticut Sun	76-84	7
June 17	@ New York Liberty	81-86	17
June 24	@ Dallas Wings	55-68	2
June 27	@ Minnesota Lynx (OT)	92-96 (OT)	7
July 3	vs. Seattle Storm	79-80	7
July 11	@ Indiana Fever	82-99	8
July 13	@ New York Liberty	72-79	19
July 22	@ Las Vegas	72-87	7
July 29	vs. Golden State	75-77	5
August 15	@ Seattle	78-80	5
August 19	@ Las Vegas	72-74	10

Fourth quarter net rating struggles​

Over the course of the 2025 season, Atlanta has an excellent 7.3 net rating. This means that, on average, they are scoring 7.3 more points than their opponents, for every 100 possessions. Atlanta currently ranks second in the WNBA behind the Minnesota Lynx with an impressive net rating of 13.6. The next closest teams are the New York Liberty at 6.3 and the Phoenix Mercury at 4.2.

In the fourth quarter of games, however, Atlanta has a negative net rating of -0.1. This drop of 7.4 points from their overall rating to their fourth quarter rating is the second-largest decrease in the league, behind only that of the Las Vegas Aces (from 0.3 to -7.5). Atlanta’s drop is entirely from defensive struggles, as their defensive rating increases from an overall 99.6 rating to 106.1 in the fourth quarter.

Potential explanations for the endgame shortcomings​

There are a number of factors that affect a team’s fourth quarter net ratings including how close their games are in the fourth quarter, random variance that occurs throughout the season, and the impact of player rotations. Atlanta’s struggles could point to problems with their bench depth and player fatigue in crunch time.

Guards Allisha Gray and Rhyne Howard are both in the top three in the WNBA for minutes played per game, averaging 35.4 and 34.7, respectively. Only Kelsey Plum plays more minutes per game than the two Dream stars. Additionally, Atlanta has not had a particularly deep roster; as of last week, the Atlanta Dream was “the only WNBA team to use fewer than thirteen players this season with just ten players averaging at least double-digit minutes.”

Atlanta’s best defender (with at least ten minutes played per game) has been Nia Coffey, with a 91.7 defensive rating. Coffey is averaging just 3.5 minutes per game in the fourth quarter, however. Gray and Howard have been on the court in the fourth quarter for 9.0 and 8.9 minutes per game, respectively. The two stars also have the worst defensive ratings for all Dream players this season (other than Brittney Griner, who has struggled with a 100.6 defensive rating on the season). Their season-long averages of 98.9 and 98.6 increase to 106.9 and 104.9 in the fourth quarter.

As the Dream ramp up for a postseason run, Coach Smesko and the Dream staff may need to consider giving Gray and Howard additional rest in the second half of games so that they can maintain their defensive efforts in the fourth quarter. As they have shown throughout the season, Atlanta is capable of taking a lead against anybody. It may just require a bit of luck and attention to maintain those leads at the end of games.

All stats are from WNBA.com unless otherwise noted.

Source: https://www.peachtreehoops.com/atlanta-dream/64783/unpacking-the-atlanta-dreams-fourth-quarter-woes