News Colts Team Notes

[Indianapolis Colts]

No longer ‘happy go lucky,’ these surprising Colts have become legit AFC contender

No one, and I mean absolutely no one, realistically thought the Indianapolis Colts would be this good outside of anyone directly employed at their W. 56th Street complex or with some really Horseshoe blue tinted glasses.

This isn’t just a good team that may sneak into an AFC wild card game anymore, with the right breaks down the season’s stretch, but sitting at 6-1 and atop the AFC, they’re now a bonafide Super Bowl contender.

As CBS analyst and future NFL Hall of Famer J.J. Watt eloquently put it on the telecast, “Everyone’s waiting for the other shoe to drop. Let me tell you, that shoe ain’t dropping.”

Watt reiterated that the Colts “have no weaknesses” right now.

While there is assuredly work to be done, potentially in a depleted Colts cornerback room and for a stalling edge rush outside 2nd-year pass rusher Laiatu Latu—as next month’s NFL trade deadline rapidly approaches, one doesn’t have to make much of a leap of faith at all to believe that this looks and feels like a legitimate AFC contender—*health permitting for the remainder of the season.

This elite NFL offense continues to put on a clinic week-after-week and looks incredibly difficult to stop—as every bit of a well-oiled, prolific scoring and efficient machine:

Through seven weeks, the Colts are the most efficient offense by points per drive this century pic.twitter.com/4oyLckuShS

— Anthony Dabbundo (@AnthonyDabbundo) October 20, 2025

We always knew that Colts head coach Shane Steichen was a gifted offensive play-caller and one of the better young offensive minds in the league—even after last season’s collective disappointment.

Everything that he seems to call is going great right now, and he may lead the league in consistently scheming receivers wide open through his astute play-calling so far this season. He’s been on a heater.

It’s not just that he’s calling great plays though, the Colts players are also executing them close to perfection.

He’s been in complete lock step with new Colts quarterback Daniel Jones, and when this head coach-quarterback pairing isn’t attending Butler basketball games together on a Friday night, they’re breaking opposing defenses and their coordinators collective spirits out on football fields fresh come Sunday afternoons.

Jones has so far mastered the offense, showing exceptional pre-snap recognition, poise, progression, accuracy, and an ability to extend plays under pressure. He’s looked like the former franchise quarterback that New York Giants fans thought they had when they selected him with the 6th overall pick back in the 2019 NFL Draft.

A year ago everyone wanted the Colts to fire the GM and weren’t sure about the head coach either. It was so obvious the solution to all of these issues was Daniel Jones. I mean, duh.

— Colin Cowherd (@colincowherd) October 19, 2025

Fortunately, the Colts don’t have to decide anytime soon and can let the regular season play out for a larger sample size to reference, but he looks like he’ll be the eventual recipient of a lucrative, multi-year contract extension, presumably similar to the one that now successful former first round reclamation quarterback Sam Darnold just received with the Seattle Seahawks this past offseason.

It’s not just Steichen and Jones though.

That would be selling everyone else collectively short, and there’s a lot of collective praise to go around.

It’s superstar workhorse Johnathan Taylor, who leads the league in rushing yards and rushing touchdowns, and looks like the favorite for NFL Offensive Player of the Year and a legitimate NFL MVP candidate, for a prestigious individual award that’s historically been reserved for top quarterbacks in more modern league history.

It’s an offensive line that’s moving and manhandling opposing defensive linemen and linebackers upfront seemingly at will more often than not, paving huge running lanes for Taylor, while keeping Jones largely upright to make plays both in and outside the pocket.

It’s top rookie tight end Tyler Warren, who’s been a dynamic, versatile playmaker all over the field—with three receiving touchdowns in three straight games, and presented a mismatch nightmare that opposing defenses have yet to effectively neutralize but always have to somehow still account for while game-planning and preparing.

It’s a ‘pick your poison’ receiving corps with big bodied possession wideout Michael Pittman Jr., deep ball acrobat Alec Pierce, savvy natural slot Josh Downs, etc. where opposing defenses cannot simply lock on one guy. What the Colts lack in having a truly elite WR1, they have one of the deepest receiving rooms in football right now.

Under new veteran defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo and the veteran additions of both safety Cam Bynum and cornerback Charvarius Ward in the secondary, the Colts defense is better and much improved from last year.

There’s no more soft zone coverage no matter the down and/or situation, but rather, this defense is being tailored to each particular weekly matchup. It’s an opportunistic defense that after leaving Sunday’s game is allowing the 8th fewest points (20.0 avg. ppg)—even with their depleted cornerback room. After picking off Los Angeles Chargers Pro Bowl quarterback Justin Herbert twice yesterday, the Colts rank 3rd best in total takeaways (11).

Things feel really good right now in Indianapolis.

That was a statement road win against a very good and well coached football team, and a game that the Colts of more recent seasons would’ve found a way to falter late.

It’s time to give some credit when it’s due too. With an underwhelming quarterback situation and a GM and head coach who were both on the hot seat, this season almost felt over before it started—entering the 2025 campaign.

The Colts made the right moves though in the face of critics, in what’s shaping up to be a nearly perfect offseason.

Under the three Irsay daughters new energized leadership, an improved Colts clubhouse and culture, and an elite offense that’s routinely giving opposing defenses nightmares, backed by a defense that can opportunistically make plays (especially if it can shore up some deficiencies here soon), it’s an Indianapolis squad that could potentially be playing deep, late winter football again—which has been a very long time coming for the Horseshoe faithful.

There’s real reasons for optimism right now in Indy, as this feels and looks likes a well-rounded Colts juggernaut that has realistic aspirations of hoisting an elusive Lombardi Trophy—if they can keep up their great work.

Source: https://www.stampedeblue.com/analys...ising-colts-have-become-a-legit-afc-contender

 

[Indianapolis Colts]

Colts’ Week 7 QB Analysis: The Efficient Engine

Thanks to the nflFastR project, Pro Football Focus and NFL NextGen Stats for the timely sources of data.

For those of you new to this, I will publish key QB stats each week judging how well the Colts’ QB performed. Yes, O-Line, receivers, and play-calling impact these numbers but they are primarily QB measures. I will probably modify the charts throughout the season. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)

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HOW WELL?​

This week, Daniel Jones continued his trend of producing a high volume of positive plays while limiting the impact of negative ones. In Week 7, he ranks 9th in both success rate and EPA efficiency. He’s consistent, minimizes mistakes, and brings explosive capability. In short, he’s doing exactly what you want from a quarterback.

With no interceptions, he posted a bounce-back in EPA per play, even as his success rate dipped slightly. His yards per play remained high, leading to an elevated play conversion rate.

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HOW FAR?​

He struggled with completions early, going just 5-for-9 to start, but that’s the beauty of having a strong run game—when the passing attack sputtered early, the offense still found ways to score. Jones eventually settled in, finishing just shy of 70% on the day, and missing on only two of his final ten attempts helped seal the win.

Passing depth was up this week, as he recorded the 6th-longest average attempt distance and raised his completion depth back to around league average.

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TO WHO?​

Pierce stole the show with 10 targets, finishing just shy of 100 yards. Warren was a YAC machine throughout the game.

On the season, Pittman retakes the lead in targets, but Warren still owns the yardage crown.

You don’t want to be in the lower-right quadrant of this graph—and none of the Colts’ receivers are.

The trio with the most targets—Warren, Downs, and Pittman—sit well above the league-average value line.

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HOW ACCURATE?​

Completion percentage dipped slightly this week, but with the deeper throws, it actually translated to a higher accuracy rate (CPOE). Jones is absolutely killing it on passes between 0 and 20 yards.

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HOW FAST?​

Time to throw was again slightly above the league average this week—but with deeper attempts, that’s to be expected.

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TO WHERE?​

He primarily targeted the left side of the field but found the most success throwing to the right. Those results might not be entirely independent.

For the season… hold up—what’s that red patch doing there?

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DASHBOARD​

mouseover definitions: epa/d, median EPA gain in similar game situation (down, distance, etc.)”>arsr, 3 yards to gain in game-neutral situations”>edp, opd, pr%, tip, ttt, adot, ay/c, yac, yacoe, yd/c, ac%, cpoe, aypa, scr%, ta%, sck%, aa%, aay, ny/d, ny/p, 1st%, td%, to%, 0″>qbsr epa/p, adj/p

• The Colts remained a pass-first team, even though the run game was extremely productive (1st ARSR, 9th EDP).
• Jones faced roughly average pressure and took about an average amount of time to throw, despite maintaining solid downfield depth on his attempts (18th PR%, 15th TTT, 6th ADOT).
• His depth of completions was around league average, but the receivers provided excellent YAC, and when combined with a high completion rate, it pushed his yards-per-attempt efficiency into the top 5 (17th AY/C, 6th YAC, 9th AC%, 4th AYPA).
• Add to that the fact that he had very few scrambles, throwaways, or sacks, and you get dropback yardage that ranked 3rd highest on the week (21st Scr%, 19th TA%, 28th Sck%, 3rd NY/D).
• He consistently moved the chains, which led to a pair of touchdown passes—and, importantly, no turnovers (8th 1st%, 11th TD%, 26th TO%).

All of that translates to another top-10 performance overall (9th QBSR, 9th EPA/P).

mouseover definitions: ay<, dp%, ay/c, yac, yd/c, ac%, aypa, drp%, aypa, ta%, ypa, sck%, ny/a, scr%, ny/d, car%, ny/p, 1st%, any/p, td%, any/p, to%, any/p, epa/p, opd, adj/p

His efficiency curve is strong, showing a steady upward trend as different play outcomes—drops, incompletions, sacks, and so on—are factored in.

Although it’s not shown here, I have him ranked 9th in deep passing and #1 under pressure. The only real weakness is in the red zone, where his efficiency dips to 18th. But hey—that’s what a strong run game is for.

On the year, Jones holds the highest EPA efficiency of any quarterback, and even after adjusting for opponent strength, that only drops to 3rd overall.

For a guy I bad-mouthed so much before the season, he’s making me look like an idiot.

Source: https://www.stampedeblue.com/nfl-analysis-play-breakdowns/116609/colts-week-7-qb-analysis

 

[Indianapolis Colts]

Can you believe the Colts are first in the AFC?

The Indianapolis Colts are 6-1. Read that sentence again. The Colts could be 7-0 if it weren’t for several bonehead plays against the Rams. Ok, let’s not focus on what could have been. Let’s focus on the here and now. Seven weeks in and the Colts hold the best record in all of football. Even your most diehard fans would have been hard pressed to place a bet on the current results. Is it sustainable? Will it hold? Those are questions we will have answers to shortly, but in the meantime, it is something to behold.

When Daniel Jones was named the starter, the fanbase was split. Regardless of whether you found yourself on team Richardson or Jones, it seemed apparent that this franchise was going nowhere fast. How could you look at the last ten years and think much differently? Chris Ballard continued to employ old heads and retreads to play the most important position in sports. It hadn’t worked before and here they were going back to that same dried up well again. Jones had been unceremoniously kicked out of New York and took a bag of money with him. It seemed like a season that at best would hover near .500 or at worst, bottom out.

Well, look at the Colts now. Have they played some bad teams? Yep, some really bad ones. Have they obliterated them? Absolutely. They kicked out the collective teeth of the Dolphins, Titans, and Raiders. They handled bad teams exactly as a true contender should. They have played some good teams too in the Broncos, Rams, and Chargers. Luck, both good and bad played a factor in two of them but that is to be expected over the course of a season. Sometimes the ball bounces your way; other times it doesn’t.

What they did on the road against the Chargers, I don’t care how much the Chargers have struggled of late, was highly impressive. It was a major carryover of the offensive onslaught we have seen all year. The Chargers’ defense isn’t exact porous, but it looked as if my friends and I were out there in coverage. Whatever the Colts wanted, they got. Three touchdowns in a row to start a game puts an inordinate amount of pressure on the opposing offense to keep up. The Chargers got it together late, but it was simply that, late. The score was too high and the game too far out of reach. The first place Colts had taken it to them.

No lies here. There was no world in which I had the Colts sitting atop the standings seven weeks into the season. I was camp “7-9”, but certainly wasn’t camp “the number one seed in the AFC is anywhere near a potential reality”. There is so much season left and big games on the schedule coming up. Things can shift quickly in the NFL, but for now, on this October day, the Colts are in first place, not just in their division, but in the entire AFC. Read that sentence again…

Source: https://www.stampedeblue.com/analysis/116661/can-you-believe-the-colts-are-first-in-the-afc

 

[Indianapolis Colts]

Indianapolis Colts Wednesday Injury Report: 2 Starters Return to Practice

The Colts are healing up from some recent injuries, for on Wednesday news broke of that starting slot receiver Josh Downs and backup Wide Receiver and Special Teams gunner/returner Ashton Dulin would practice after their 1 game absence versus the Chargers. However that wasn’t the only good news on the injury front, as potential starting Cornerback Jaylon Jones returned to practice as well for the first time in months.

Colts Shane Steichen: Josh Downs (concussion) will practice today. Opening 21-day window for CB Jaylon Jones (hamstring). Ashton Dulin (chest) will practice.

— Mike Chappell (@mchappell51) October 22, 2025

Jones was competing with rookie Justin Walley for the starting outside Cornerback job opposite of Charvarius Ward, but has dealt with a hamstring injury since the preseason, and now has a 3 week window opened to return to the active roster. The 2023-2024 could step in as a starter once again when he is healthy, although new Corner Mekhi Blackmon has impressed in new Defensive Coordinator Lou Anarumo’s scheme since the Colts traded for him in the preseason.

wednesday's practice report for #TENvsIND. pic.twitter.com/ZkCtQa42Nd

— Indianapolis Colts (@Colts) October 22, 2025

Dulin was able to practice in full, a good sign for his availability for Sunday’s game. Downs is still in the concussion protocol and had a limited practice, as did Jones as the Colts ease him in off of his hamstring injury. Jones was competing with rookie Justin Walley for the starting outside Cornerback job opposite of Charvarius Ward, but Backup Running Back Tyler Goodson also practiced fully.

Kenny Moore II didn’t suit up today after his 1st game back from an Achilles/calf injury. His status will be one to monitor throughout the week. Defensive Ends Samson Ebukam and Tyquan Lewis didn’t participate either following their Week 7 midgame injuries. Ebukam is week-to-week with his MCL injury, so the Colts might have a multi-week absence without their 2nd best pass rushing Defensive End. Tyquan Lewis is day-to-day with his groin injury.

There are still 3 more players the Colts are waiting to return from IR this season:

• Nickel Cornerback Mike Hilton: eligible to return from IR in Week 10 (vs Falcons)
• Cornerback Charvarius Ward: eligible to return from IR in Week 11 (BYE)
• Quarterback Anthony Richardson: Eligible to Return from IR in Week 11 (BYE)

Source: https://www.stampedeblue.com/indian...y-injury-report-2-starters-return-to-practice

 

[Indianapolis Colts]

Laiatu Latu is an elite Pass Rusher… he just needs sacks

Laiatu Latu may have been overshadowed as a rookie by fellow first round pass rusher Jared Verse, but in Year 2 Latu has broken out in a big way. A refined technician with a deep bag of moves and counters, Latu continued to sharpen his craft this past offseason, and the results speak for themselves. The sophomore leap Latu has taken in his first year in Lou Anarumo’s scheme has been nothing short of spectacular.

• Pressure Rate: 10.1% —> 17.9%
• Pass Rush Win Rate: 14% —> 22.6%
• Run Stop Percentage: 7.2% —> 11.6%
• Interceptions: 0 —> 2

#NFL Edge: Best Pass-Rush Win % (PFF)

30.3%- Will Anderson Jr
27.7%- Micah Parsons
27.0%- Myles Garrett
25.3%- Danielle Hunter
25.2%- Aidan Hutchinson
22.6%- Trey Hendrickson
22.6%- Laiatu Latu
20.6%- Jared Verse

*100+ Pass-Rush Snaps*

— Daniel Griffis (@DanDGriffis) October 22, 2025

Per PFF Grades, Latu Ranks amongst 124 Edge Defenders 17th in Run Defense, 20th in Pass Rush, and 1st in Coverage for an Overall grade of 89.9, 7th in the NFL. Anarumo has been able to use him as a chess piece, moving around the defensive alignment to play not just Defensive End, but Linebacker and even attack inside at Defensive Tackle on occasion. He can stop the run, he can drop back and make timely plays in coverage, but most importantly, Latu can rush the passer at an elite level.

He has heated up in recent weeks, ranking 4th in the NFL in Pressures since returning from injury to move 4th on the season in Pressure Rate (behind only Nik Bonitto, Jonathan Cooper, and Will Anderson Jr.).

Laiatu Latu had a career-best 9 pressures yesterday vs. the Rams.

An elite get-off is not needed when you are this refined as a pass rusher.

Latu has the highest career college win rate on true pass sets (36%) of the 306 drafted NFL EDGEs we have charted since 2015. https://t.co/52vnI4UBMV

— Gridiron Grading (@GridironGrading) September 29, 2025

But dear reader, there is one thing Latu lacks to set his reputation as an elite pass rusher in the NFL in stone…

Sacks.

The all mighty stat named by the LA Rams Fearsome Foursome member Deacon Jones. The name came from Jones equating hitting a Quarterback behind the Line to sacking a city (as well as “if “you put all the offensive players in one bag and I just take a baseball bat and beat on the bag”). If sacks are like sieges, then Laiatu Latu’s 2025 season thus far has been the Siege of Vienna in 1683… so close to a full success but at the last possible moment isn’t finished in sacking,

Latu is always this close! pic.twitter.com/BVyk42rB3m

— HOOYOAN (@Hooyoan81) October 20, 2025

Latu was so close here#Colts#ForTheShoe#Chargers#INDvsLAC pic.twitter.com/SN0wtP6AIe

— Chris Shepherd (@NFLscheme) October 19, 2025

Yes those are two separate plays from just this past week. Latu was able to record a sack versus the Chargers, but it was only his 2nd of the season. Ironically both sacks came in SoFi Stadium against both LA teams, so he has yet to sack a QB outside of Inglewood this season.

Latu wins very consistently, but the issue is two-fold:

1. Latu wins at an average speed, 3.06 seconds Time To Pressure ranks 52nd out of 97 Defensive Linemen, with 0 Quick Pressures (under 2.5 seconds) per Next Gen Stats
2. Latu needs to tackle better, with 2 missed tackles on sack attempts this season.

If Latu can be a split second quicker in beating his man and wrap up QBs cleanly, his sack numbers will skyrocket. But with his top echelon pressure rate, it is only a matter time before Latu’s breakout results in the sacks he craves.

The Colts have faced 3 of the NFL’s top 10 Offensive Lines per PFF so far this season (Broncos 2nd, Rams 8th, Cardinals 10th), and Laiatu Latu’s remaining schedule of Offensive Lines look very favorable:

• Titans: 23rd
• Steelers: 14th
• Falcons: 20th
• Chiefs: 4th
• Texans: 29th
• Jaguars: 21st
• Seahawks: 18th
• 49ers: 11th
• Jaguars again: 21st
• Texans again: 29th

Outside of the Chiefs and 49ers games, Laiatu Latu stands a very good chance of adding plenty of sacks the rest of the season. The young former Bruin could be on the precipice of true dominance, the likes of which the Colts have not seen since the days of Freeney and Mathis.

Source: https://www.stampedeblue.com/analysis/116669/laiatu-latu-is-an-elite-pass-rusher-he-just-needs-sacks

 

[Indianapolis Colts]

Understanding the Disconnect with Colts Pass Rush Stats

Indianapolis, IN — The Indianapolis Colts‘ defense has brought opposing quarterbacks down at a top-10 rate in the NFL. However, nuance is needed to understand the shortcomings.

Indy’s pass rush is filling up the box score statistically, but it still feels like they’re lucking into opportunities at times. Against Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers in Week 7, the Colts’ defense pressured Shane Steichen’s first quarterback as an offensive coordinator a league-high (and team season-high) 57.4% of the time, sacking him thrice. Just three other NFL teams were able to total a pressure rate of 50% or higher during Week 7. They are fresh off their single-best performance of the season, so how is there so much room for improvement?

For starters, opportunity. The Colts are T-12th in points allowed (19.4 PPG) this season, but are 25th in offensive plays against. Teams are regularly moving the ball against Lou Anarumo’s Colts defense, though opportunistic play has resulted in keeping them afloat. Not only has such a heads-up mindset prepared them to bend-don’t-break, but it’s turned in the T-3rd best turnover rate (11 takeaways) across the NFL. This Colts defense is almost allowing the offense to get comfortable before appropriately pouncing when the time is right. Also, the Colts’ offense is playing so lights out that they’re scoring early and often, therefore, more opportunities for the defense.

Since the mainstream statistics seem to brush this issue off as if it’ll sort itself out, the more niche ones (such as total plays against) help paint a clearer picture. For example, the Colts’ pass rush is up to the 3rd-highest pressure rate leaguewide (39.4%) and is now 7th in sacks with 19, according to Next Gen Stats. These two stats alone suggest that Indy has nothing to worry about, but a deeper dive hints otherwise.

To further contextualize the disconnect, the Colts are only 19th in sacks per pass attempt. Additionally, opposing quarterbacks have the 7th-most time to throw per attempt (2.86 seconds) while Indy’s pass rush is 20th in get-off rate (0.86 seconds). Long story short, the Colts need more overall pressure. More specifically, they need quicker wins to combat their relatively slow rush attempts, so finishing sacks is less of a sigh of relief and more of an expectation moving forward.

Indy’s pass rush does not need to improve in these areas so long as its defense continues making timely, opportunistic plays on the ball, but it’s risky to merely hope it develops as such. As the saying goes, even a blind squirrel finds a nut every once in a while, and although this pass rush doesn’t warrant that comparison, soon they might if sustainability isn’t found.

This article is more so to try and contextualize the disconnect among Colts fans and analysts alike who notice the high pass rush numbers, but fail to see that materialize on the field. There are some proven edge rushers leaguewide who’d theoretically fit what the Colts are looking for in a consistent, quick-winning pass rusher — in particular, Bengals DE Trey Hendrickson and Dolphins DE Jaelan Phillips — therefore, a move can be made to remedy the shortcomings. This could very well be a moot point as long as the offense continues to dominate and the defense continues playing its newly established brand of opportunistic football, but it’s worth noting how the league-leading statistics differentiate from the eye test.

Source: https://www.stampedeblue.com/analysis/116707/understanding-the-disconnect-with-colts-pass-rush-stats

 

[Indianapolis Colts]

Daniel Jones is cashing in on his great play

The Colts’ offense isn’t just the NFL’s best — it’s on a historic pace, averaging more points per drive than any team since 2000.

Through seven weeks, the Colts are the most efficient offense by points per drive this century pic.twitter.com/4oyLckuShS

— Anthony Dabbundo (@AnthonyDabbundo) October 20, 2025

While the additions of Tyler Warren and a fully healthy Jonathan Taylor have made a huge difference, the biggest reason for the Colts’ offensive success has been Daniel Jones and his remarkable efficiency.

Jones is currently playing on a one-year, $14 million deal. The question now is: what will the Colts have to pay him after the season if he maintains this level of play?

To break down a potential contract, three factors need to be analyzed:

1. The quality of his current play
2. Quarterbacks of similar caliber (before signing their deals) and their salaries
3. His overall importance to the team

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Quality of Play

By all accounts, Daniel Jones has been a top 8 quarterback in the NFL this season. He ranks:

• 1st in EPA/play
• 1st in success rate (plays where the EPA is above 0)
• 5th in EPA+CPOE composite
• 8th in passer rating
• 6th in completion percentage
• 4th in yards per attempt
• Tied for 3rd in 40+ yard pass plays

He has been tremendously efficient and clean with his passes and the Colts have the best offense in the NFL.

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Importance to the Team

It’s not difficult to measure Daniel Jones’ impact on the Colts. Last season, with Joe Flacco and Anthony Richardson splitting starts, Indianapolis averaged 22 points per game. Through seven games this year, they’re averaging 33. The addition of Tyler Warren has certainly helped, but it’s clear that Jones has been the driving force behind the offense’s 50% scoring jump. The last time the Colts had a quarterback rank in the top 10 across major passing categories was 2018 — Andrew Luck’s final full season.

Jones and Shane Steichen have developed a clear chemistry. The offense is built around Jones’ strengths — play action, quick rhythm, and timing — and he’s executing it flawlessly. His consistency has also opened up the run game, allowing Jonathan Taylor to return to MVP-caliber form behind a far more balanced attack.

A good comparison might be Baker Mayfield’s breakout year in Tampa Bay. Mayfield played at a high level, took a team-friendly deal, and gave the Buccaneers roster flexibility. If Jones were to do the same — which, adjusted for inflation, would be roughly three years and $40 million per season — he’d be celebrated in Indianapolis. It’s not impossible, but it’s rare in today’s NFL, where most quarterbacks push for top-of-market deals.

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Comparable Quarterbacks

While many quarterback contracts haven’t lived up to expectations, it’s worth noting that when the players listed below signed their deals, they were performing at a level comparable to Daniel Jones.

The three most relevant long-term contract comparisons for Jones’ next contract are:

• Tua Tagovailoa: 4 years, $213.4 million ($53.1M per year), $167.1M guaranteed
• Brock Purdy: 5 years, $263 million ($53M per year), $182.5M guaranteed
• Trevor Lawrence: 5 years, $275 million ($55M per year), $200M guaranteed

Some may also bring up Baker Mayfield and Sam Darnold, though Darnold’s situation is far less applicable. Darnold was effectively replaced in Minnesota by J.J. McCarthy, signed elsewhere on a short-term deal with an opt-out after two seasons, and was coming off a rough finish that deflated his value.

Mayfield, however, is a fairer comp. He produced one strong season in Tampa Bay — albeit not quite at Jones’ level — and took a team-friendly contract to stay. Adjusted for today’s market, that type of deal would equate to roughly three years at $40 million per season, a bargain by current standards. If Jones were willing to sign something similar, he’d be hailed as a hero in Indianapolis. Still, that kind of discount is rare in today’s NFL, where most quarterbacks push to maximize every dollar of their value.

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Projected Contract

There’s 3 different contracts to examine. There’s the longterm, expensive one that locks him in for multiple years. There’s a shorter term Baker Mayfield or Sam Darnold style deal. Then finally, there’s the franchise tag.

Contract 1: 5 years, $280,000,000 ($56M per year) with $175,000,000 guaranteed

Contract 2: 3 years, $130,000,000 ($43.3 per year) with $60,000,000 guaranteed

Contract 3: 1 year, $46,073,000 fully guaranteed (projected Franchise Tag)

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Which contract to take?

To me, there are two realistic paths, depending on how negotiations unfold. If Daniel Jones pushes for a long-term deal similar to those signed by Tua Tagovailoa, Trevor Lawrence, or Brock Purdy, the Colts should decline and instead apply the franchise tag, projected at about $46 million. If Jones is open to a shorter-term agreement, Indianapolis should move quickly — something in the three-year range with an opt-out after year two, similar to Sam Darnold’s deal, would make perfect sense.

As impressive as Jones has been, committing to a four- or five-year contract right now would simply be too risky. Still, the team should already be preparing for a cap hit in the low-to-mid $40 million range for next season. With several other contracts already backloaded, it wouldn’t be wise to use the same structure for Jones — especially if they opt for a three-year deal.

Jones has earned himself a massive raise — but if the Colts stay smart with their structure, both sides can win.

Source: https://www.stampedeblue.com/analysis/116603/daniel-jones-is-cashing-in-on-his-great-play

 

[Indianapolis Colts]

Colts’ Players to Watch: Week 8 vs. Titans

Laiatu Latu​

Latu has been the Colts’ best pass-rusher this season, which is no surprise after a rookie year where he showed flashes. The Titans have two good tackles, but are struggling in pass-protection, as they struggle in all offensive areas. Keeping the edges contained and bringing in quick pressure to rookie quarterback Cam Ward will be important in never allowing the Titans to get into any sort of rythm, and finish the game fast. Left tackle Dan Moore Jr. has been serviceable this season, the matchup to exploit lays on the right side where JC Latham has struggled with injuries and has been mediocre when on the field.

Jonathan Taylor​

Yeah, yeah, I get it! Thank you Captain Obvious! Well of course JT is worth keeping an eye out every single game, but with the way the Colts’ offensive line has been playing, with how bad the Titans’ front-seven is defending the run, and just the way that JT is running the football, there might be some records broken here. There are no wasted movements in his game, no rush at all to hit the hole, no player he cannot shake, reaching top speed in an instant. I don’t think I have seen more dominance from a Colts’ skill position player in my life.

Johnathan Edwards / Mekhi Blackmon​

The Titans’ wide receiver group as of right now is easily the least talented in the NFL. I am really cautious with my words and rarely am as absolutist as I am here, I am that confident in my statement. Elic Ayomanor is an intriguing rookie, and his chemistry with Ward is developing nicely, but as of right now, Ayomanor caught just 19 of his 39 targets, for 225 yards and two touchdowns. Other than him, and with Calvin Ridley most likely out for the game, the Titans will play Chimere Dike and Van Jefferson at receiver. This is the perfect chance for either Edwards or Blackmon to have a breakout game and establish themselves as the #4 cornerback on the team, maintaining their playing time until both Charvarius Ward and Jaylon Jones return from their injuries.

Michael Badgley​

Either this week or the next there are going to be two very coveted kickers potentially available to sing, perhaps even three, as Lukas Havrisik (Packers), Matt Prater (Bills), and Jake Moody (Bears) could be released after their respective starters return from injuries. Michael Badgley came in for the injured Spencer Shrader, and he missed an extra point attempt against the Chargers. If Badgley struggles then the Colts will probably be looking at better options available on the market, and with a relatively easy game I don’t believe that head-coach Shane Steichen will be as aggressive as he was against the Chargers, leading to plenty of opportunities for Badgley.

Cedric Gray, linebacker (Titans)​

Gray has been the second best defensive player for the Titans, and their most pleasant surprise this season by far. He is an excellent tackler, with 15 stops already defending the run, above-average in coverage, and just 22-years old. The Titans have found their starting linebacker for the next decade, and it will be entertaining watching him go up against Jonathan Taylor in the hole, hopefully several times on Sunday.

Jeffery Simmons, defensive tackle (Titans)​

Simmons is by far and without a shadow of a doubt the best player that the Titans have on their team. He is good enough to be able to wreck games on his own, and is always the biggest worry when the Colts are playing the Titans. He will most likely be out for Sunday with a hamstring injury, which is amazing news for the Colts’ interior offensive line who will not have to deal all game with such a dominant player. I doubt he is available, but I would trade two 1sts and even more for him in a heartbeat.

Source: https://www.stampedeblue.com/analysis/116706/colts-players-to-watch-week-8-vs-titans

 

[Indianapolis Colts]

Colts Reacts Survey Results Week 7

Indianapolis Colts fans confidence is nearly sky high for the AFC’s leading team, who many expected to be a bottom feeder entering the 2025 campaign. There’s good reason too as the Colts are currently 6-1.

Specifically, 99% of Colts fans are now confident that the team is headed in the right direction, which it doesn’t take a rocket scientist to know is a nearly pristine percentage.

In particular, the Colts now have a solidifying veteran presence at starting quarterback, which coupled with the big rookie addition at tight end, has paid dividends. Under new defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo, the Colts defense has also improved dramatically—having its own key additions in the Colts secondary this past offseason.

Colts head coach Shane Steichen has also been on a heater with his play-calling offensively, seemingly in complete synch with his quarterback, star running back Jonathan Taylor, and an Indy offensive line that is manhandling its opponents up front. The Colts are one of the most prolific offenses in league history right now.

As such, 98% of Colts fans believe they’ll do what they haven’t done since 2014, which is finally win the AFC South again.

Once the toast of the division, the Colts have the longest division title drought of any of their AFC South rivals, and each of their rivals has won the division at least twice since the Colts last won it over a decade ago.

What does that mean for hoisting an elusive Lombardi Trophy?

Well, that same optimism isn’t quite as high, as only 37% of Colts fans believe that Indianapolis will become World Champions again, which they haven’t done since 2006. Still, even having that percentage that high is shocking, given that many Colts fans realistically felt this was closer to a Top 5 draft pick than serious contender.

Source: https://www.stampedeblue.com/analysis/116792/colts-reacts-survey-results-week-7

 

[Indianapolis Colts]

With or without injuries, the Colts will look to handle the Titans

When the Indianapolis Colts met the Tennessee Titans in week three, things started with a bang. On the first possession, Kenny Moore II picked rookie Cam Ward off and took it in for six. From there, the Colts never looked back. It was 20-6 at the half, and by the time the final whistle blew, it was a blowout at 41-20. Whether it is week one or eighteen, teams deal with injuries. The Colts have had their fair share, and the Titans are currently taking on more than theirs. Regardless of who could be out there on Sunday, the Colts should be able to take care of business.

Positive news came in the form of Josh Downs progressing through concussion protocol. There is a chance he suits up this week. Additionally, Moore came back against the Chargers, and Jaylon Jones is in his 21-day practice window. He seems like more of a longshot to play this week, but it is certainly in the realm of possibility. On the Titan’s side, Tyler Lockett is gone, and the trio of Jeffery Simmons, L’Jarius Sneed, and Calvin Ridley are looking to miss this one. Outside of Ward, those are the biggest names on an already bad football team. Any chance the Titans thought they had to upset the Colts takes a massive blow with those three out.

It really shouldn’t matter though, should it? The Colts are producing at the highest offensive level imaginable. Literally… They are up there with the best offenses off all time. Field a completely healthy Titans team and the Colts should still be able to handle them with ease. With elevated quarterback play, the receiver corps. ability to get open, an emerging rookie of the year candidate, offensive player of the year candidate, and an offensive line that is straight up mauling people, the Colts are equipped to take on any defense, home or away, healthy or not. Playing the banged up Titans just makes work that much easier.

Look, it’s the NFL. Anything can happen, and any team can win, any given week. This is not to say you should bet your house on the Colts to win this week, but then again, you’d probably win that bet. The Colts could lose, but the odds of that seem more and more astronomical as the injury news comes out. The Colts will stumble at some point this season. Just don’t expect it to be this week against a Titans team that is decimated by injuries because the Colts should run through them like a hot knife through butter; injured or not.

Source: https://www.stampedeblue.com/analys...ries-the-colts-will-look-to-handle-the-titans

 

[Indianapolis Colts]

Week 8 Colts vs. Titans Game Thread

The Indianapolis Colts are at home to take on the Tennessee Titans in week 8 of the 2025 season, kickoff is at 4:25 p.m. EST.

Last week our Colts dominated a good LA Chargers team. The game was never as close as the 38-24 final score would indicate. That said, the game was not without it’s concerns. The depleted Colts secondary allowed Justin Herbert to throw for a career high 420 yards and three touchdowns and there were large swaths of the game that felt like the pass rush didn’t do enough. That’s not to say the front four weren’t playing well, they applied pressure on a little more than 57% of Herbert’s drop backs (that’s very good), it’s just that Herbert threw 55 passes, which means he had a clean pocket for something like 24 drop backs. So this could have just been a matter of circumstance and ultimately the numbers are what they are, even if it was frustrating at times to watch, only three teams in week seven pressured the quarterback at a 50% rate and Indy was one of them.

This week the opponent isn’t of the same quality as those Chargers. The Titans are a little more than a week removed from firing their head coach and whether the phenomenon is real or imagined the Titans failed to receive the in-season bump in play that so often follows the firing of a head coach, when they lost in blow-out fashion to the New England Patriots. Having said that, rookie quarterback Cam Ward played the best game of his young career, throwing for 255 yards and a touchdown on 74% passing.

I’m not going to tell you that the Colts are going to lose this game because Cam Ward threw one touchdown (and a pick) last week, but I am going to tell you that for a team with very serious concerns at cornerback, this game could be uncomfortably close.

Ultimately the Titans will be without several stars (stop laughing, Jeffery Simmons is a star on all 32 teams) due to injury and even in Cam Ward’s career best game he was sacked five times and averages more than four sacks taken per game. The Titans offense is still ranked dead last in both yards gained and point scored and defensively they’re not much better. This is a bad team. The 2025 Indianapolis Colts are a very, very good team.

I’ve been watching Colts football since Jim Harbaugh was the starting quarterback. I saw every single Peyton Manning snap in Indy. I once shaved my full beard into an awful neck-beard just so I could match Andrew Luck (10/10 would do that again) and I’ve never seen a Colts team like this. The offense is elite and the defense (when healthy) is better than average. These are the seasons NFL fans live for and we’re in the middle of one. This week’s game should be a blowout.

I’m not going to tell you this is a potential trap game, but we all know it is. Under no circumstances should this game even be close but if you listen to any Super Bowl winner they’ll all tell you the hardest thing to do is to come back from that success, lock in, and go do it all again. After someone climbs a mountain, human nature tends to dictate that, that person lets their foot off the gas. The Colts haven’t won anything yet but they’re (rightfully) receiving a lot of praise from the nationwide NFL media. So the question becomes, will they let their foot off the gas or will they keep climbing the mountain?

My prediction is that this team is locked in. I think they are focused and I think they’re going to come into this one and take care of business. Jonathan Taylor will have a big day, Daniel Jones will be good again, Tyler Warren will continue to look like a rookie of the year candidate and the offensive line will bully anyone brave enough to line up across from them. But there’s a reason they play the games. We’ll see what happens.

Prediction:

Titans: 24

Colts: 34

As always, go Colts.

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RELATED

Week 8 Opponent Preview

Week 8 Players to Watch

Week 7 Film Review

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This is your week eight open thread so hang out here, chat, celebrate, commiserate, and argue in the comments! Go wild (within reason)!

Go Colts!

Source: https://www.stampedeblue.com/gameth...pierce-michael-pittman-latu-cross-kenny-moore

 

[Indianapolis Colts]

Indianapolis Colts roll through Titans to stay on top of AFC playoff picture

The Indianapolis Colts dominated the Tennessee Titans and it didn’t matter that the rest of the AFC playoff teams won. The Colts stay atop the AFC with their Week 8 win.

The AFC East-leading New England Patriots and the second-place Buffalo Bills both won, the Denver Broncos walloped the Dallas Cowboys, and the Los Angeles Chargers all won this week.

The Pittsburgh Steelers lost Sunday night while the Kansas City Chiefs roll on Monday night.

The Jacksonville Jaguars are on the bye.

AFC playoff standings during Week 8​

The Jaguars and Raiders were on their byes in Week 8.

1. Indianapolis Colts (7-1)
2. New England Patriots (6-2, 4-2 AFC)
3. Denver Broncos (6-2, 3-2 AFC)
4. Pittsburgh Steelers (4-3)
5. Buffalo Bills (5-2)
6. Los Angeles Chargers (5-3)
7. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-3, win over KC)
8. Kansas City Chiefs (4-3, loss to JAX)
9. Houston Texans (3-4)
10. Cincinnati Bengals (3-5)
11. Las Vegas Raiders (2-5, 2-3 AFC)
12. Baltimore Ravens (2-5, 1-3 AFC)
13. Miami Dolphins (2-6, win over CLE)
14. Cleveland Browns (2-6, loss to MIA)
15. New York Jets (1-7, 1-4 AFC)
16. Tennessee Titans (1-7, 0-5 AFC)

AFC South standings after Week 8​

With the Jaguars on the bye, the Colts added a half-game to their lead in the division. The Texans won, but are still several games back.

Indianapolis has their four big divisional games yet to come, but they are sitting pretty.

1. Indianapolis Colts (7-1)
2. Jacksonville Jaguars (4-3)
3. Houston Texans (3-4)
4. Tennessee Titans (1-6)

Source: https://www.stampedeblue.com/indian...-titans-to-stay-on-top-of-afc-playoff-picture

 

[Indianapolis Colts]

Colts WR Michael Pittman Jr. is Amidst a Career Year

Indianapolis, IN — The Indianapolis Colts, and more specifically its offense, have had no shortage of highlights through each of its games through eight weeks of play. From head coach Shane Steichen pulling out tricks from the deepest parts of his offensive bag to Jonathan Taylor and Daniel Jones vying for MVP votes, this Colts team is a wagon in large part due to its historically successful offense.

Each position group on that side of the ball has seemingly evolved into all-world talents collectively. The offensive line, with two first-time starters across the interior, is simply mauling people in tandem as they’ve provided countless clean pockets in pass protection while also parting red seas in the run game. As for the passcatchers, the addition of rookie tight end Tyler Warren’s talents certainly has opened things up, but even the wide reciever core of Michael Pittman Jr., Alec Pierce, and Josh Downs has been at its best.

Most notably, Michael Pittman Jr. is amidst a career year, and is fresh off of his single-best performance yet this season. Against the Tennessee Titans in Week 8, Pittman Jr. led all Colts receivers with 8 receptions for 95 receiving yards and a touchdown. This is the third instance this season of Pittman Jr. being the Colts’ leading man through the air, two of which have come against Tennessee.

To showcase just how locked in Michael Pittman Jr. was against the Titans on Sunday, and has been all season long, look no further than this 3-play sequence on the Colts’ second touchdown drive. Although not in immediate succession of one another, Pittman Jr. seemingly took over this drive. Quarterback Daniel Jones and the offensive line had to ensure the ball got to him first and foremost, but it was Pittman Jr.’s effort(s) once the ball was in the air that provides understanding how and why he’s always been underrated.

The Michael Pittman Jr. Drive vs Titans:

– 11-yard reception
– 14-yard reception: Hot Potato Edition
– 21-yard TD reception (with defender draped over him) pic.twitter.com/79ebRgPL9A

— Noah Compton (@nerlens_) October 27, 2025

Michael Pittman Jr. is finally getting consistent quarterback play after churning through several quarterbacks throughout his first half-decade in the NFL, and it’s quickly paying dividends for all parties invovled. Every passcatchers within the Colts offense is getting their fair share of targets, yet Pittman Jr. has already tied his season-high in receiving touchdowns (6) through just 8 games. He’s on pace to finish short of season-best total in receiving yards (947), but would shatter his receiving TD (13) and catch percentage numbers (76.8%).

Amongst the league, Michael Pittman Jr. is not even the team’s leader in receiving yardage — that nod currently goes to rookie tight end Tyler Warren — but he ranks with the best of them in a couple of categories. His aforementioned 6 receiving touchdowns so far not only ties his career best, but is good for T-3rd leaguewide while his reception total (43) is tied for the 11-most.

Accusations ran rampant last season of his effort on the field, but later it was revealed by Michael Pittman Jr. himself that he had a minor back fracture that he played through, saying, “We were doing the scan every four weeks but I got a point I didn’t care what the scan says, I’m gonna play either way.” Hindsight bias or not, the mere thought of Pittman Jr. not giving his all was always the crux of such accusatory takes. Regardless, his reasoning is much deeper than a selfish excuse.

“It’s something you go through. I think it was [Andrew] Van Ginkel said that everybody wants to be a dawg until it’s time to do dawg stuff,” Pittman Jr. referenced the saying as doubling as his own mindset. “That’s just what you have to do for the guys. This isn’t a fair-weather sport. Guys like Quenton Nelson, Jonathan Taylor, and DeForest Buckner — they deserve my best even when maybe I don’t feel up to it and stuff like that. Also, it’s a privilege to play in this league and I don’t take any game lightly. I’m out there because it’s such a privilege and I take every game seriously. Football is really my life and I would really do anything to play in each and every game.”

The only statistic Michael Pittman Jr. cares about is adding to the win column, but this quick turnaround from a back injury to a career year is both impressive and validating for multiple parties involved, but none more than the Pittman camp. He’s always been a lead by example type, and while his dirty work is often thankless, such team success if forcing eyeballs onto the Colts, and as a result, many are about to understand how underrated Indy’s top wideout has always been.

Source: https://www.stampedeblue.com/analysis/116920/colts-wr-michael-pittman-jr-is-amidst-a-career-year

 

[Indianapolis Colts]

Colts work out five players on Monday, ultimately signing veteran DE to practice squad

According to KPRC2’s Aaron Wilson, the Indianapolis Colts worked out cornerback LaMareon James, defensive end Tanoh Kpassagnon, linebacker Grayson Murphy, defensive end Casey Toohill, and linebacker Rashad Weaver—ultimately signing Kpassagnon to their practice squad following his Monday tryout.

It’s not the first time the Colts have been reportedly interested in Kpassagnon, as they were reportedly interested when he was a free agent back in the 2021 offseason.

Instead, Kpassagnon signed with the New Orleans Saints on a 2-year, $4.5M deal and later was re-signed to another 2-year, $6M contract extension in February of 2023.

After signing with them this past offseason, he’s been on and off the Chicago Bears roster to start this season, appearing in 4 games and recording 5 tackles (4 solo) and a sack before being released just a few weeks ago.

Per PFF, he earned a +51.1 overall grade with the Bears to start the season in limited action.

Originally a 2017 2nd round pick of the Kansas City Chiefs, the 6,7”, 289 pound defensive end (with 35 3/4” arms) has 146 tackles (98 solo), 17.5 sacks, 9 passes defensed, 2 forced fumbles, and a fumble recovery during 108 career games (34 starts).

While longtime Colts general manager Chris Ballard had already joined Indianapolis when Kpassagnon was drafted by Kansas City, as their former Director of Football Operations, he was presumably heavily involved with their pre-draft scouting and evaluating of prospects.

Should he be added to the active 53-man roster, Kpassagnon brings veteran d-line experience to the Colts organization, as well as an interesting physical profile:

The Colts announced that they released recently signed defensive end Seth Coleman in a corresponding roster move on their taxi-man squad to free up a spot for Kpassagnon.

Source: https://www.stampedeblue.com/indian...timately-signing-veteran-de-to-practice-squad

 

[Indianapolis Colts]

Colts’ Week 8 QB Analysis: Jones continues to impress

Thanks to the nflFastR project, Pro Football Focus and NFL NextGen Stats for the timely sources of data.

For those of you new to this, I will publish key QB stats each week judging how well the Colts’ QB performed. Yes, O-Line, receivers, and play-calling impact these numbers but they are primarily QB measures. I will probably modify the charts throughout the season. Commentary will be brief but feel free to let me know in the comments that stats aren’t everything. (click charts for larger view)

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HOW WELL?​

I think I could just copy and paste my comments from previous weeks, because Jones keeps delivering the same consistently strong performances. In Week 8, he was once again a top-10 QB in EPA efficiency and success rate, minimizing mistakes and mixing in high-impact plays to keep the NFL’s best offense rolling.

He did take three sacks this week, which was out of the ordinary, but when your biggest complaint is that the worst play of the day was a 3rd & 10 sack, there’s not much to complain about.

His success rate dipped a bit this week, but it was a down week across the league, so he still managed to land at #7. His yardage efficiency and play conversion rate, however, were sky-high — leading to plenty of points.

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HOW FAR?​

One of Jones’ strengths this year is the ability to string together completions. At one point, he completed 10 passes in a row and that really helps move the chains. I guess technically there aren’t chains anymore, but “moving the cameras” just doesn’t have the same ring to it. Regardless, 70+ % completion rates are a good thing.

He’s kept both his attempt volume and completion depth above average pretty much all season. That’s a big change from his days in New York, where he was often forced to constantly dump off short passes. Even in his previously best season back in 2022, he had the 4th-shortest average attempt depth — but in Indy, he’s up to the 7th-longest. Of course, that’s irrelevant unless you can actually complete those passes — and he is.

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TO WHO?​

Both Pittman and Pierce had big days, nearly matching each other in total receiving depth, but Pittman added a lot more YAC. Warren continues to impress as Jones spreads the ball around nicely.

Warren still leads in total yards, but Pittman is the completions and target leader.

The only low-value throws were the shorter ones, which is completely normal.

Each week I’m stunned by this graph showing all the main receivers delivering above-average value. Colts fans haven’t seen anything like this in a long time. A long, long time. Like… looooooong.

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HOW ACCURATE?​

Accuracy (CPOE) jumped significantly this week, driven by Jones connecting on the deeper throws. Ironically, for the season, he’s actually below average on passes behind the line of scrimmage — but he more than makes up for it on throws up to 30 yards downfield.

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HOW FAST?​

Time to throw stayed a little high, but with the longer attempts, that makes sense. His three sacks were the most he’s taken all season, and I’m sure holding the ball a bit too long was a factor. But it’s a trade-off — and it clearly worked. On the year, when you account for passing depth, his time to throw is actually quicker than average.

Bottom line — nothing to see here.

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TO WHERE?​

He spread the ball evenly across the field, without favoring either side. He was a little shy on throws over 20 yards, but when he took those shots, he delivered.

I just need him to take a deep shot down the middle next week so he can erase the only red zone left on his season heat map.

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DASHBOARD​

mouseover definitions: epa/d, median EPA gain in similar game situation (down, distance, etc.)”>arsr, 3 yards to gain in game-neutral situations”>edp, opd, pr%, tip, ttt, adot, ay/c, yac, yacoe, yd/c, ac%, cpoe, aypa, scr%, ta%, sck%, aa%, aay, ny/d, ny/p, 1st%, td%, to%, 0″>qbsr epa/p, adj/p

Here’s the quick and dirty on the game:

• The Colts had a strong day on the ground but still leaned on the pass (2nd ARSR, 2nd EDP).
• Jones wasn’t pressured for most of the afternoon, which allowed him to hold the ball a bit longer than average and push the ball deeper downfield (22nd PR%, 13th TTT, 10th aDOT).
• Not only did Jones complete a high percentage of his throws, but he also generated more depth on those completions than most quarterbacks — leading to a top-five yards-per-attempt mark (8th AC%, 9th AY/C, 5th AYPA).
• Unlike previous weeks, he abandoned more attempts — with a higher number of throwaways, a few sacks, and minimal scrambles (9th AA%, 6th TA%, 10th SCK%, 19th SCR%). That’s not a good thing, and it significantly reduced his yardage efficiency (9th NY/D). Although by simply not having any designed runs, he jumps 2 spots in net yards per play (7th NY/P).
• He racked up plenty of first downs to keep drives moving downfield, which yielded three passing touchdowns — all while posting yet another turnover-free game (8th 1st%, 5th TD%, 26th TO%).

That all put him 7th in EPA efficiency and success rate. Sure, it came against a 24th-ranked Tennessee pass defense, but he was strong against the good defesnes too (Rams, Broncos).

mouseover definitions: ay<, dp%, ay/c, yac, yd/c, ac%, aypa, drp%, aypa, ta%, ypa, sck%, ny/a, scr%, ny/d, car%, ny/p, 1st%, any/p, td%, any/p, to%, any/p, epa/p, opd, adj/p

Up to this point, I’m not seeing any real weaknesses — other than strength of schedule. But even after adjusting for opponent, I still have him graded as the 2nd-best passer on the season.

Source: https://www.stampedeblue.com/nfl-an...week-8-qb-analysis-jones-continues-to-impress

 

[Indianapolis Colts]

Colts speculated as ‘one player away’ trade suitor for Bengals All-Pro edge Trey Hendrickson

According to ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler and Dan Graziano (subscription), the Indianapolis Colts still seem like a logical trade destination for Cincinnati Bengals reigning All-Pro pass rusher Trey Hendrickson—even with their current caveat that “Cincinnati has no plans to trade Hendrickson right now”:

“Up to this point, the Bengals have rebuffed trade inquiries, and sources have maintained that Cincinnati has no plans to trade Hendrickson right now,” writes Fowler. “The Cowboys and 49ers are among the interested teams, though San Francisco made a move for a pass rusher Tuesday night.”

“ . . . Complicating matters is a hip injury that has compromised Hendrickson’s past two weeks on the field, though that injury is not considered serious and Hendrickson should be full-go for the stretch run, be it for Cincinnati or someone else,” adds Fowler. “The Colts make a ton of sense as a contending team that could be the proverbial ‘one player away.’ It would also represent a reunion between Hendrickson and former Bengals defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo, now running the defense in Indianapolis.”

It’s not the first time that the Colts have been linked to Hendrickson, as Indianapolis had reportedly maintained interest throughout this past offseason—after the elite veteran pass rusher initially requested a trade.

The pairing is only logical, as Hendrickson previously played under Colts new veteran defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo in Cincinnati from 2021-24. The 30-year-old had his best career individual season in Anarumo’s Bengals defense last year, finishing with a league-leading 17.5 total sacks—en route to First-Team All-Pro honors.

The 4x NFL Pro Bowler has been limited by a hip injury recently, but still has 4.0 sacks on the season in 7 starts, and if fully healthy, would be a significant upgrade to a stalling Colts’ pass rush off the edge as of late.

Per ESPN Analytics, the Colts currently rank 29th in pass rush win rate at 31%—although Indianapolis is currently tied for the 6th most team sacks at 23 total sacks. The Colts have struggled generating a consistent edge rush outside of 2nd-year pro and former first round pick Laiatu Latu.

If fully healthy, Hendrickson remains one of the best pass rushers in the league.

With the Colts leading the AFC at 7-1 and being red hot, and the conference down atop, if there was any year for Indianapolis and longtime general manager Chris Ballard to go all in and make a ‘win now’ championship move, this would arguably be it—albeit within reason.

Source: https://www.stampedeblue.com/indian...tor-for-bengals-all-pro-edge-trey-hendrickson

 

[Indianapolis Colts]

Could Colts game strategy apply as a season strategy?

First of all, let me thank the 550 readers who took the time to vote in the “Expectations for the next 3 weeks” poll. 550 is easily the most voters I have seen and I also want to say thank you to the 42 who took a minute to comment. To say that fans are feeling confident, might be an understatement. Most (57%) believe that taking down the Chiefs in Arrowhead may be a bit optimistic, but those voters also believe that we show well enough to remain a true contender at 9 – 2. 33% are full speed ahead and find no reason not to win all three of the next three games, which brings us to 90% being highly optimistic and 99% mostly optimistic. Only 6 of 550 voters see doom and gloom on the horizon.

On to the topic at hand.

Shane Steichen made a statement early on, before the season even started, that the team intended to pass to score and run to win. This has held true as we have consistently used the air to build leads and then used our rushing attack to seal victories. It is hard to argue that strategy, given the impressive results. When you are scoring over 33 points a game, you are likely putting up big numbers throughout, but the Colts currently average 18 points in the first half and 15.8 in the second half.

I started thinking, I know, first time for everything, whether we could apply that strategy to the season? Could we be passing to score a good record in the first half and then rely on the running game to win the second half? This thought process materialized from watching the first half of the Titans game. In my humble opinion, I think we saw a team finally take the approach of not honoring the run fake for play action passes. All three of the sacks we surrendered, were in the first half and I think only the 3rd and 10 play was not play action.

Anyway, as the season gets into the second half, is it time to bring a little more focus on the running game earlier in games? I’m not talking the ground and pound, or “Run the damn ball” mentality, but as weather becomes dicey, might it be better to lean more toward the traditional “Run to set up the pass”? I can hear the backlash now, “So, our offense is producing at a historic level and you want to just shake thing up a little?” As I look at in print, I can completely acknowledge that sentiment.

If teams continue to honor the run fake on play action and RPO plays, then by all means, keep making them pay with the passing game. However, I worry that other teams with better defenses may also be willing to risk a big run, if it yields them a sack, a hit, or even worse, a poor decision from our QB. They may find it worth it? I’m merely suggesting that we remind them why others have honored the run fake, with a few more attempts early on. I wouldn’t even be opposed to showing them a little designed run for Jones, early on. I’d be lying if I said that I didn’t fear Watt deciding not to honor run fakes in an attempt to physically or mentally rattle DJ.

I do not believe we need a poll to determine if I am “Bat Crap Crazy”, but feel free to agree or disagree with my assessment.

Source: https://www.stampedeblue.com/analysis/117006/could-colts-game-strategy-apply-as-a-season-strategy

 

[Indianapolis Colts]

Week 8 Colts Defensive Rankings and Analysis

Each week during the season, I will be walking through the data from the previous Colts game and analyzing the numbers to form a sort of “what happened” narrative, as well as comparing the Colts against all other teams in the league. For a glossary of the stats listed, reference Season Stats. Thanks to Pro Football Reference, NFL.com, Pro Football Focus and the nflFastR project for being awesome sources of weekly data.

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For most of the day, the Colts defense stopped the Titans from moving the ball. Tennessee managed only 20 first downs and a 71.4% Drive Success Rate — and even that may be inflated by a late garbage-time touchdown.

The defense managed only two three-and-outs on the day, but they kept the Titans out of the red zone on seven of ten drives, forcing an interception, five punts, a turnover on downs, and a long field goal attempt.

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TEAM TOTALS​

Mouseover for definitions: PPD, Adj PPD, W-L, Pyth Wins, PPG, Yds, DSR, Strt Fld, yds/ply, EPA/ply, adj TSR, 1st/ply, Pen 1st/ Yds, 3DC, 3rd ytg, Expl Plys, TO, TOP%

The defense ranks 7th in Points per Drive this week, which is slightly better than most of the underlying defensive metrics. They ranked 12th in Drive Success Rate, 10th in EPA per play, 11th in yards per play, 11th in success rate, and 11th in play conversion rate.

Points are what matter, so I’ll gladly take the 7th-place finish — but the defense actually played a bit worse than that in terms of ball movement. This is a classic “bend don’t break” defense, which isn’t as good as a “don’t bend, don’t break” defense, but I’ll take whatever works.

Looking across all games, the Colts defense appears strong on the surface — holding opponents to the 6th-lowest points per game — but that figure is highly misleading. Points per Drive is a far more predictive measure of future performance, and by that metric, Indianapolis drops to 15th.

Even that ranking comes with context, as the Colts have faced several below-average offenses. When adjusting for opponent strength, my model places the defense 25th on the year, though that may represent an “over-adjustment” given the limited schedule. As the season progresses, that number will stabilize, but for now it’s fair to say the defense grades out somewhere between 15th and 25th. I know that’s a wide range, but the point is — it’s not 6th.

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PASS TOTALS​

Mouseover definitions: EPA/db, Adj EPA/d, PSR, Cmp, Att, Yds, TD, Int, Sck, Sck Y, Sck Fum, Scrm, Scrm Yds, Scrm TD, Scrm Fum, 1st/db, ny/d, cmp %, aDOT, CPOE, Air Yd, YAC, 20+ #/Yd

The Colts held the Tennessee passing game in check, limiting Cam Ward to the 6th-worst EPA per dropback. His Success Rate was slightly better (14th-worst), but his red-zone interception tanked his efficiency. He also posted the 9th-worst yards per dropback and the 10th-worst pass play conversion rate. I’d comfortably call that a top-10 defensive performance against one of the worst passing teams in the NFL.

On the year, I have the Colts pass defense ranked 19th after adjusting for opponent strength — and given the injuries they’ve dealt with, I’ll take it.

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RUSH TOTALS​

Mouseover definitions: wgt RSR, adj RSR, YDS, CAR, TD, 1st, Fum Lost, RSR, 1st/c, YPC, 10+ #/Yd, 3rd, EPA/c,

In a change of pace, the Colts defense was strong against the run. Although they allowed 4.4 yards per carry (8th most) and the 10th-highest EPA per carry, they kept a lid on first downs, holding Tennessee to the 7th-lowest run-play conversion rate of the week. Adjust for situation, and that translates to the 5th-best defensive weighted Rush Success Rate in Week 8.

On the year, however, the news isn’t as good. After opponent adjustments, the Colts run defense ranks only 21st, allowing the 11th-highest run-play conversion rate in the league — driven by a league-worst 82.6% third-down conversion rate.

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CONCLUSION​

Tennessee doesn’t have a good offense, but holding an opponent to 14 points — with seven of those coming in garbage time — still qualifies as a solid defensive day. Indy was good against the pass and strong against the run, getting stops when they needed them by forcing a turnover and a failed fourth-down attempt.

I just wish the cumulative season effort looked as good. The Colts are a below-average defense against both the run and the pass, so when they face strong offensive opponents, if they can’t re-produce their 6th ranked take-away success, it could spell trouble — terrible, terrible trouble.

Source: https://www.stampedeblue.com/nfl-an.../week-8-colts-defensive-rankings-and-analysis

 

[Indianapolis Colts]

5 Questions with Behind the Steel Curtain: Can the Pittsburgh D slow the Indy O?

In Week 9 of 2025 our Indianapolis Colts will travel to take on the Pittsburgh Steelers. Knowing the party was hitting the road, I sat down with Ryan Parish of Behind the Steel Curtain, SB Nation’s Steelers blog. You can find him on Twitter @RyanParishmedia. We swapped questions and answers about both the Steelers and the Colts and what follows is what I’ve learned about this week’s enemy.

You can find my answers to his questions here.

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Chris Shepherd: This year we’ve heard about the predictability of the Steelers defense and since Shane Steichen got to town Gardner Minshew, Joe Flacco and Anthony Richardson have combined to go 37 for 58 (64%) for 454 yards, 5 touchdowns and zero interceptions, perhaps lending some credibility to the allegations of predictability. How can the Steelers change things up for this matchup against the NFL’s best offense through 8 weeks, how do Steelers fans think they’ll slow down the Indy offense?

Ryan Parish: One big change could be new safety Kyle Dugger whom the Steelers acquired in a trade on Tuesday. While I don’t expect Dugger to boost the Steelers’ woeful secondary against the pass, he is a plus-defender against the run and could hopefully help slow down Taylor and his MVP aspirations.

Beyond that, I’m not sure what the Steelers can do. The majority of the secondary has looked old and slow. It’s been no help that the Steelers typically show defenses the exact coverage scheme they are going to run pre-snap, allowing savvy quarterbacks and playcallers to pick apart the soft spots in zone looks and hunt matchups in man coverage. The pass rush is creating pressure at a fairly high rate, but even that has been bland and unimaginative, allowing good offenses to get the ball out quickly to nullify some of the heat Pittsburgh is able to generate. The Steelers are also blitzing at a high rate, which again gives savvy quarterbacks the ability to throw where there is a weakness in coverage.

I would like the Steelers to play Darius Slay significantly less, give more reps to Brandin Echols, and press more at the line with their corners. But truthfully, the Colts seem like a matchup nightmare for this year’s defense.

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CS: Aaron Rodgers has looked much better this season than last, how has playing in Arthur Smith’s offense helped Rodgers get some of that magic back and in what ways do you expect to see him test a very beat-up Colts secondary?

RP: To a certain extent, it’s all been smoke and mirrors. When given adequate time to stand in the pocket and read the defense, Rodgers is still among the best. All those years of experience haven’t faded from his mind. That said, if you’re able to move him off his spot at all, things quickly fall apart. Rodgers rarely throws deep, likely due to diminishing arm strength and accuracy, but also because the Steelers’ offensive line struggles to block for long-developing routes, and the Steelers have few playmakers outside of DK Metcalf who can win vertically.

If you let the Steelers stay ahead of the sticks with their running game and quick passing attack, they can hang with any opposing offense. But if they get off track, via penalties, or sacks, or runs that get stuffed or lose yardage, they turn into fish in a barrel and just aren’t built to climb out of those holes consistently.

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CS: In the first round of the 2025 NFL Draft the Steelers selected defensive tackle Derrick Harmon. How has Harmon looked thus far and do the Steelers have any other young standouts on either side of the ball?

RP: Harmon had to miss the first couple of games due to an injury he sustained in the preseason, but he’s looked the part since returning. In five games, he’s totaled three sacks and 14 pressures as an interior defensive lineman. He’s not immune to rookie pains, but for a player picked in the 20s, it’s been encouraging. He’s gotten five stops in run defense, but has had his fair share of struggles, as has the rest of the Steelers’ front. Still, I’d say the early reviews are generally positive.
As for other young players on defensive, Payton Wilson has his lapses here and there, but he’s arguablly been the Steelers best linebacker, better than 2024’s free agent prize Patrick Queen. Nick Herbig has been the Steelers most effective pass rusher and has been electric when on the field, but for some reason has seen his snaps go down the past two weeks — which coincides with the two worst defensive performances of the year from Pittsburgh, I might add.

On offense, the young standouts are center Zach Frazier and right tackle Troy Fautanu. Second-year receiver Roman Wilson has slowly been getting more action over the past couple of weeks and might provide a big play or two if the Steelers can exploit that banged-up secondary you mentioned. Lastly, Darnell Washington is an offensive tackle-sized tight end who is key to the Steelers as a blocker and the occasional catch and run.

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CS: If you were an offensive coordinator charged with creating a game plan to take on this Steelers team what would your plan look like? Who would you target? Is there anyone you would avoid?

RP: The Steelers run Cover-1 man and Cover-3 62% of the time. In man, I’m tossing deep to Alec Pierce a couple of times this game, and I’m asking Tyler Warren, Josh Downs, and Michael Pittman to abuse the Steelers coverage in the middle of the field and on curl and corner routes. I’d also remember that Jonathan Taylor is vying for 2,000 rushing yards and 20+ touchdowns, and be licking my chops scouting the Steelers.

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CS: Currently the Colts are three point favorites over the Steelers. How do you see the game going, who’s going to win and what will the final score be?

RP: The Steelers need to score 30 points, control the clock, and win the turnover battle to have any shot in this game. I don’t see it happening. Colts win 35-23.

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I can’t thank Ryan enough for answering this week’s questions. Make sure you head over to Behind the Steel Curtain and @RyanParishmedia on Twitter to check out his work.

The more I think about it the more I think Aaron Rodgers throws for 450 yards and 5 touchdowns in this one and if that’s the case, Ryan might have been wrong with his prediction, although I hope he’s spot on.

As always, go Colts.

Source: https://www.stampedeblue.com/interv...nes-aaron-rodgers-tyler-warren-derrick-harmon