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Evaluating the injuries, poor asset management, and everything else that has contributed to Milwaukee’s disappointing post-championship saga
The post-championship years for the Bucks have not gone how anyone would have hoped. A well-fought second-round loss in 2022 has been followed by two first-round exits, one of which was at the hands of the eighth-seated Miami Heat. With Damian Lillard’s availability completely up in the air, a fourth early exit unfortunately seems to be in the cards this season. The most frustrating part about the years of wasted potential is that there are some clear what-ifs to point to as causes— events and trends that could have completely altered the trajectory and perception of the team had they gone differently. Let’s talk about a few of the biggest what-ifs of this Bucks era, some of which are directly influenced by the organization’s decisions, and figure out what we can take away from them.
Injuries
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The basketball gods have unleashed their wrath on the Bucks since 2021. The team hasn’t had all of their stars healthy for an entire series since their fabled title run. In 2022, Khris Middleton went down in the first round against Chicago and missed the entire semis against Boston. In 2023, Giannis was only a full participant in games four and five of a five-game series after getting hurt in game one. Last year against the Pacers, Giannis wasn’t available at all, and Damian Lillard appeared in just four out of six games in the first-round loss to Indiana. Even in 2021, Milwaukee had to close out the Eastern Conference Finals without Giannis. Now, this season, while his recovery from a recently discovered blood clot reportedly is progressing well, it’s no guarantee that Lillard will be suiting up for what will be a tough opening series regardless of opponent.
Making it through an entire successful regular season just to have postseason hopes derailed by an injury to a star is incredibly frustrating. A team’s flaws and areas for improvement heading into an offseason can’t truly be determined when they weren’t at full strength in the playoffs. Injuries are bound to hit every team at some point, so the Bucks are far from the only victim. In 2019, injuries to Kevin Durant and Klay Thompson led to a dominant Warriors squad losing in the Finals to Toronto. The Clippers have lost their superstar Kawhi Leonard in multiple series. Injuries are no excuse, but they certainly can play a major factor, especially for the Bucks. Having to play postseason ball without a star player for three, maybe four, years in a row is cruel. At this point, it may not even be just bad luck. You have to wonder if Giannis playing an incredibly physically taxing style of ball for well over 60 games every year leads to his body breaking down a little by April.
If Milwaukee hadn’t faced so many injuries, it’s easy to imagine the last couple years playing out more favorably. A healthy Khris Middleton could have been the difference in the seven-game loss versus the Celtics in 2022, and from then on, the team very well could have made it all the way to the Finals like Boston did (and potentially even defeated Golden State). Giannis being in the lineup almost certainly would have prevented the Bucks from being first-round exits in ‘23 and ‘24, even if they would have lost in subsequent series. Overall, the team’s postseason performance from the past three years can’t be fully evaluated without an asterisk because of all the injuries.
Coaching hires and firings
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When Mike Budenholzer was fired in 2023, it was the right move. No need for revisionist history here. Flaws in his system were starting to become exposed more and more often. One of the biggest reasons why the Bucks were upset by the Heat in that year’s playoffs was that Bud refused to adjust defensive coverages (
editor’s note 1: Khris Middleton went on record saying Jrue Holiday specifically asked to be the primary assignment on Jimmy Butler before the series, but Bud did permit this to continue) in order to better mitigate Miami’s hot shooting. The 2022 playoffs played out similarly, as Grant Williams and Al Horford made Milwaukee pay for leaving them open night after night. Budenholzer was, and is, a good NBA coach, but the Bucks needed to shake up their strategies.
The coaching what-ifs start with Bud’s successor, Adrian Griffin. Bringing in a first-time head coach to lead a contender was a questionable move. The other two finalists in that search, Kenny Atkinson and Nick Nurse, were both much more experienced and established. The latter is even a championship coach. However, in a decision likely influenced heavily by Giannis, Griffin was selected. His 43-game stretch as head coach was pretty successful on paper. The Bucks went 30-13 with him at the helm and were a formidable offensive squad. However, it was apparent that there were some underlying problems. The team was significantly worse on defense than they ever were during the Budenholzer era. Even worse, Griffin seemed to be losing the locker room. When he was fired in the middle of the 2023–24 season, it wasn’t as surprising as it was made out to be.
The search for Griffin’s replacement included Kenny Atkinson once again, as well as Nate McMillan, Jeff Van Gundy, and the eventual selection, Doc Rivers (
editor’s note 2: this decision was reported by several insiders to have come from ownership, as GM Jon Horst’s choice was Atkinson). Rivers is one of the most decorated and esteemed coaches in NBA history, as he’s firmly in the top ten all-time in total wins. For a midseason hire, bringing Doc in seemed like a great decision. However, the team tanked after his arrival, finishing the regular season 17-19 in games where he coached. It’s tough for a coach to take over in the middle of the season. Fans looked forward to seeing what the Doc-led Bucks could do after a full offseason to gel. The result has not been what was hoped for.
With Rivers at the helm, the Bucks haven’t found an identity. They’re statistically solid on both ends, but not top ten on either side this season. At least when Griffin was at the helm, it was clear that the Bucks wanted to win by maximizing their offensive output, and they were successful in doing so. With all the offensive talent on today’s roster, it makes you wonder if sticking with Griffin and giving him at least a full season to work things out would have been the better move. He did a better job of getting the most out of his players than Doc has (on offense, at least).
But the most intriguing what-if here involves a man who was involved in both coaching searches but not hired. Kenny Atkinson, who became the head coach of the Cavaliers prior to the 2024-25 season, is currently the clear Coach of the Year favorite. He’s done a phenomenal job getting his players to buy in and has extracted a ton of value from every single one of them. He’s creative in his direction on both ends and has turned the Cavs into a two-way juggernaut. There’s no denying that Atkinson is a much better coach than Griffin or (current) Rivers, and a timeline where he was given the Bucks job sounds a lot more encouraging than the one we’re in now.
The Lillard trade
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More controversial than the coaching-related hypothetical debates are the ones surrounding Milwaukee’s biggest move of the Giannis era. Very few people anticipated the Bucks landing Damian Lillard in the 2023 offseason, but they pulled it off. It was a deal that shocked the NBA world and immediately put the team at the top of title favorite lists. Nobody knew how a duo of Giannis and Dame could be guarded. Everyone was excited about their potential for greatness.
Almost two years later, opinions have soured. The Giannis-Dame duo and the team as a whole haven’t lived up to the hype. It’s somewhat understandable why some fans feel the Bucks should have never traded for Dame. They had a great thing going with the core of Giannis, Khris Middleton, and Jrue Holiday. Holiday was the heart of the team and championed their defensive identity. Giving him up sucked, frankly.
However, there is simply no world where the Bucks shouldn’t and wouldn’t have made that trade. It sent Giannis the message that the organization will do whatever it takes to give him a chance to compete, and the superstar’s happiness should be near the very top of the priority list for decision makers. Plus, that type of politics aside, not taking the opportunity to add an all-time great guard coming off a season where he averaged 32.2 PPG to a contending team would be baffling, especially when the price tag was only a low-tier All-Star and three first round picks (remember, Rudy Gobert and Mikal Bridges both went for five).
Bottom line, Bucks-related finger-pointing should not start with the Lillard trade. The front office would do it ten out of ten times and would be silly not to.
Misuse and mismanagement of draft assets
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Finally, let’s talk about the biggest criticism of Jon Horst, who has otherwise done a very respectable job as a GM. Horst is often attacked for his drafting ability. Here is the list of Bucks draftees since 2017, when Horst was hired:
- D.J. Wilson, 17th overall, 2017
- Sterling Brown, 46th overall, 2017
- Donte DiVincenzo, 17th overall, 2018
- Jordan Nwora, 45th overall, 2020
- Sam Merrill, 60th overall, 2020
- Sandro Mamukelashvili, 54th overall, 2021
- Georgios Kalaitzakis, 60th overall, 2021
- MarJon Beauchamp, 24th overall, 2022
- Andre Jackson Jr., 36th overall, 2023
- Chris Livingston, 58th overall, 2023
- AJ Johnson, 23rd overall, 2024
- Tyler Smith, 33rd overall, 2024
Upon first glance, there is only one player who can undeniably be considered good, and that’s Donte DiVincenzo. The Villanova product was turning into a super valuable piece for the Bucks (
editor’s note 3: Horst tried to trade him when his value was highest in 2020, but the deal was reportedly nixed by Bogdan Bogdanovic’s agent) before an injury completely threw him off and ultimately led to him being traded. Now, he’s one of the best bench players in basketball. Beyond him, though, none of those guys have made a meaningful impact in the league. Sam Merrill and Sandro Mamukelashvili were nice picks considering where they were taken, as both have carved out multi-year careers for themselves. Andre Jackson Jr. will clearly play some sort of role for the Bucks moving forward, but he’s still a bit of a mystery as of now. Tyler Smith has yet to get a chance to show what he can do.
While it’s easy to look at that draft resume and pick it apart, it needs to be considered that Horst has only been able to draft in the first round four times, only twice in the top 20, and not once in the lottery. He’s also had the last pick in the draft three times. It’s really hard to consistently find real contributors in the draft, especially when you’re working with less desirable picks. Yes, Horst could have done a better job with the few “high” picks he has gotten, but still, the larger factor in Milwaukee’s draft results remains their lack of premium capital.
Not having a ton of favorable draft picks is a reality of being a contender. However, the Bucks have done a not-so-awesome job of managing their picks and draftees as trade assets (outside of the Holiday and Lillard trades). Giving up
five second-rounders for Jae Crowder was an obviously poor decision even before Crowder proved to be washed. Trading DiVincenzo for an older Serge Ibaka instead of letting him regain his confidence post-injury is highly regrettable in hindsight. Giving away a promising young prospect in AJ Johnson in exchange for Kyle Kuzma might turn out to be a back-breaking decision.
Jon Horst has drafted well relative to his average position, especially in the second round. He’s done a fine job with what he’s had. What he does deserve some criticism for is setting himself up for failure in the draft by needlessly shipping out picks and trading away prospects before finding out what they are as players. Taking swings on young, raw players in the draft is pointless if you don’t make their growth a priority.
Two side notes: one, the Bucks have been one of the worst player development teams in the league in the last five years. They rarely gave young guys a chance to play consistently (if at all) and grow during that stretch, but that’s a conversation for another time. It is worth noting, though, that 2024–25 has been a step in the right direction, as players like AJ Green, Ryan Rollins, and Andre Jackson Jr. have been important rotation pieces at different points throughout the season, proving why letting the young guys rock can be very beneficial. Two, signing Green as an undrafted FA in 2022 is truly an excellent move that makes up for whiffing on MarJon Beauchamp in the same year.
The takeaways
The main takeaway here is that a lot can go wrong for an NBA team at any given time. Some of it’s controllable, some of it’s not. The Bucks are far from the only team that could have an article like this written about them. The most important thing for fans to recognize is what warrants criticism and what doesn’t. For an organization, they have to learn from past mistakes to reverse negative trends. For the Bucks, uncontrollable injuries are probably the biggest reason for the letdowns in recent years. However, muffed coaching searches and mismanaged draft assets are self-inflicted mistakes that need to be prevented as best as possible going forward.
The 2024–25 chapter for the Bucks isn’t over, and the same goes for the Giannis and Dame era. Championship hypotheticals could still be fulfilled in the near future. Don’t give up hope yet.
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