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NBA Free Agency kicks off four weeks from today, and the Milwaukee Bucks have a litany of free agents this year. Four key members of the 2024–25 squad (Brook Lopez, Jericho Sims, Gary Trent Jr., and Taurean Prince) are unrestricted free agents, and as many as three more (Bobby Portis, Pat Connaughton, and Kevin Porter Jr.) could join that class if they decline their player options by the end of June. Additionally, they have one restricted free agent (Ryan Rollins) and three players whose salaries for 2025–26 are not guaranteed (AJ Green, Andre Jackson Jr., Chris Livingston) until after July 7th. While we won’t look at
all of these names, we’ll certainly preview the market for each actual free agent and the ones likely to opt out. Today, we begin with the man in the middle, from Stanford.
Brook Lopez, 7’1” center, 37 years old
We all know Lopez very well by this point. What he’s done over the past seven years with the franchise, from a signing on the bi-annual exception who turned into a three-and-D monster after turning 30, through a very team-friendly four year deal that saw him rebound from back surgery to a Defensive Player of the Year runner-up, and the current iteration who remains one of the league’s better rim protectors. Yes, he’s lost a step and can’t switch onto guards like he did during the 2021 title run, and he is a bad fit against certain opponents as we saw against the Pacers, but if you think he’s no longer a solid NBA player, you’re off your rocker.
After missing 69 games in 2021–22 with that back injury, he’s missed a mere nine games in the three years since and has never missed a postseason game for the team. Even after turning 37 on April 1, he’s one of the league’s true iron men. This past season was the most minutes he’s played since 2010–11 (!!!) when he was
22 years old! And he certainly didn’t look worse for the wear on offense, coming 0.1% from setting a new career-best behind the arc with a true shooting percentage of 62.4%, a figure only exceeded by his 2022–23 campaign. He was still an excellent screensetter who showed lots of chemistry with Damian Lillard.
Despite that prolificness, he drew the ire of a significant portion of the fanbase this year and last for a perceived slip in defensive effectiveness. Part of that is due to a team-wide downgrade in terms of perimeter defense precipitated by the loss of Jrue Holiday and shift to Adrian Griffin’s ill-suited scheme last year. But even as the Bucks improved on that end of the floor this year, Lopez found himself targeted a lot on switches and in the trademark drop zone sets that worked so well from 2018–23. Teams with stretch bigs were a bugaboo in those years too, though, and increasingly mobile bigs aren’t forgiving to aging rim protectors.
Yet he still remains very good at what he does: though the Bucks were about league-average when it came to opponent shooting frequency and accuracy in the restricted area, their foes took 1.8% fewer shots there and shot 1.3% worse when Lopez was on the floor, per Cleaning The Glass. Those are 77th and 66th percentiles among centers leaguewide, respectively. From 2020–24, he never ranked below 95th in accuracy, and was only twice below the 81st percentile in frequency during his entire Milwaukee tenure. He’s not the deterrent he once was inside, but he’s still a solid one.
Role
Moving forward? It’s no guarantee he has similar success on the defensive end as he did during the most recent regular season. That’s why he may serve a different function to his next employer, wherever that is. Outside of his seventh season in Brooklyn when he split time with Mason Plumlee (yes, really), he’s started in all but 12 of 1033 games and only came off the bench three times as a Buck. He fell out of the starting lineup for Game 5 in this year’s first-round series, a harbinger of what may be to come. Had the Bucks advanced to play Cleveland, it seems probable he’d have been much more important—or at least playable—against their Jarrett Allen and Evan Mobley frontcourt. But we saw against other teams besides the Pacers this year that he’s not always a great fit in his current state.
I think part of the reason the Bucks stayed so loyal to Lopez, especially when he was last a free agent in 2023 and nearly bolted for a sizeable offer in Houston, was that Joel Embiid was healthier. Philly loomed much larger in those years as a potential playoff opponent, even though it never actually happened because of injuries on both sides, or just the way the bracket broke. After Embiid’s most recent knee surgery, though, who knows just how involved he and the Sixers will be in the Eastern Conference picture in the next couple years. Milwaukee’s more likely playoff opponents have bigs like Myles Turner, Karl Anthony-Towns, Paolo Banchero, possibly Kristaps Porzingis if Boston doesn’t trade him this summer, then the aforementioned Allen and Mobley.
The fact is, there are younger, smaller, more athletic centers who can deal with those bigs, all of whom aren’t as big as Embiid by height or by bulk.
Potential Suitors
It may surprise his detractors, but there will definitely be a market for Lopez’s services this summer. Beyond the Bucks, the Lakers have long been known to be fans, rueful of letting him leave without even offering him anything after his one season there in 2017–18, then seeing him have a renaissance in Milwaukee for a mere $3.4m. ESPN’s Bobby Marks also reported last month that the Warriors were interested in him too. The Rockets may not be quite as into him two years later, but we probably can’t rule them out either; Steven Adams is a free agent, Jock Landale’s $8m contract is fully non-guaranteed, and the smaller Alperen Sengun could likely slide down to the four to play alongside Lopez in a supersized frontcourt.
Other speculative fits are the Pelicans (who has had rumored past interest), Magic, and Clippers. The Pelicans have All-Rookie Second Teamer Yves Missi in the middle, but Splash Mountain off their bench makes a lot of sense next to Zion Williamson. At least moreso than Kelly Olynyk, their current backup big. Lopez famously makes his offseason home at Disney World, but Orlando is pretty stocked in the frontcourt, so it probably won’t happen. LA’s other team doesn’t have much behind All-Defensive center Ivica Zubac, and Lopez would maintain the level of rim protection they get from Big Zu while adding shooting.
Potential Contract
The center market is
very thin in free agency. Without question, Myles Turner is the best name, but it seems certain he will remain in Indiana. Clint Capela is 31 now and definitely facing a pay cut after an injury-filled down year. Al Horford is the only other guy who might start for most teams, but he’s 39. Depending on how you feel about him, Lopez either falls between Horford and Capela as the third-best center on the market or second after Turner. Next probably comes the Nets’ Day’Ron Sharpe, who is only 24 but a restricted free agent. If Bobby Portis (more on him soon) declines his player option, he would round out the arguable list of top five fives.
There are a variety of solid rotation bigs and backups like Jaxson Hayes, Luke Kornet, and Kevon Looney, each of whom probably will stick with their current teams. Then there are less proven guys like the Bucks’ own Jericho Sims (more on him soon too), former Buck Sandro Mamukelashvili, and Paul Reed before you get to vets who will get minimum salaries like DeAndre Jordan and Mason Plumlee. Jaylin Williams of the Thunder (the other one) will probably have his very cheap player option picked up and not hit the open market, otherwise he’d be one of the most interesting possibilities at just 23 years old.
Since he’s been a Buck for so long, the team has his Bird rights and can retain him at any price up to his maximum salary without worrying about the salary cap. Prior to his down postseason, it seemed possible that Lopez could command up to the non-taxpayer midlevel exception of $14.1m. Now, though, I doubt as many teams will be willing to go over the taxpayer midlevel of $5.7m. Going over that figure hard caps his new employer at the first apron, and teams might not want to do that for an aging center.
At his age, he’ll probably only get one guaranteed season, and perhaps a team option in year two. Contracts signed with the TPMLE can be worth up to two seasons, so if a team somehow wanted to give him any more than two years, it would have to use the full midlevel exception and face that hard cap. With LeBron James reportedly remaining in LA on his $52.6m player option next year, the Lakers will be pushing the first apron, so using any more than the TPMLE won’t happen, since they couldn’t fill out a roster beneath the resulting hard cap. Golden State is in the same boat. Either team would have to cut salary significantly to give a free agent any more than $5.7m.
Houston has much more breathing room below the first apron to offer a player more than the TPMLE, but I’d be surprised if that would be for Lopez. New Orleans has less space, but could have more if they move Olynyk and replace him with Lopez. Orlando’s roster is pretty full next year, especially at the five, and even if they moved someone like Goga Bitadze and saved some money, Lopez wouldn’t be getting more than the TPMLE. If James Harden opts into his $36.3m for next season, the Clippers will also have room to use the full MLE. Even if he opts out for a bit of a raise, they could still probably hard cap themselves, but again, probably not for Lopez.
Milwaukee has an advantage since they possess his Bird rights, meaning they could go slightly beyond any team offering him all of its TPMLE and offer him, say, $6m for one year plus a team option for the same amount. For Lopez’s current level of play, I would probably do that if I’m Jon Horst. It wouldn’t be too harmful even if it was a bit more, and it wouldn’t hard cap them either. The Bucks project to have $148.8m committed to just seven players next year, assuming Portis and Porter opt out, and the restrictive second apron is $207.8m. If nothing else, it becomes a pretty tradeable expiring contract after December 15th.
What kind of contract would you re-sign Lopez to, or would you let him walk? What kind of salary could he expect next year if you believe the $5.7m TPMLE is too much? Let us know in the comments.
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