Although it might be hard to believe, the 2025 NFL regular season is one game from being over. For both conferences, there have been plenty of close battles for playoff seeding. In the NFC, multiple teams came into Week 17 with a shot at the NFC’s top seed, including both the Chicago Bears and San Francisco 49ers. Both teams have exceeded preseason expectations, and, believe it or not, both rosters share many of the same strengths and weaknesses. That’s what made Sunday night’s game such an intriguing matchup. With both teams having clinched playoff spots in Week 16, and the Bears locking up the NFC North the night before, this game was much more about seeding and feeling each other out as potential postseason opponents. Despite the loss, it’s hard to come away feeling anything but excitement for what’s ahead. We’ll talk about all of that and more in our Week 17 installment of 10 Bears Takes.
1. The Chicago Bears Are The NFC North Champions For The First Time Since 2018. What Looked Impossible In January Became A Reality Shortly After Christmas.
It feels like an eternity ago that Ryan Poles sat up there awkwardly for his opening press conference. I couldn’t recall 90% of what he said during his introduction, but I’ll never forget his infamous quote: “We’re going to take the North and never give it back.”
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To say that the first three years of his tenure as the general manager in Chicago were smooth wouldn’t be truthful. In fact, I would say it was downright nasty, outside of some great fortune landing the No. 1 pick in consecutive seasons. After his second season, the quote became a point of mockery for many, and to be fair, it looked like they were going nowhere fast. There’s nothing wrong with a team committing to a rebuild; it’s another to show absolutely zero progress after three seasons. During the team’s season-ending press conference in January, team president Kevin Warren did the majority of the speaking. Many, including myself, wondered if Poles should be afforded a second chance. In the end, ownership allowed him to hire a second head coach, and the rest is history.
It’s been a full seven years since this organization has given fans anything to be proud of. Since 2018’s promising 12-4 campaign, we’ve seen three head coaches and a 37-63 (.336) record from 2019 to 2024. To put this into more perspective: In former head coach Matt Eberflus’ three seasons with the team, they won a grand total of 15 games. Assuming Ben Johnson can keep this up in Year 2, they could easily match (or surpass) that 15-win total next September.
To say it’s been a long time coming would be an understatement. Despite entering the season as the least likely team to win the NFC North, they overcame an 0-2 start and went on an 11-2 run heading into Sunday night. It would have been easy to give up and throw in the towel on this group, but they started showing that they could learn how to win, and the rest has been history.
Unlike 2018, the Bears will look to find some success during the postseason. That was made easier on Saturday when the Green Bay Packers’ losing streak hit three games after they dropped to 9-6-1 after a 41-24 letdown at home to the Baltimore Ravens. Now that the Bears have locked down the division, they are guaranteed at least two home games (assuming they win the first).
The job is far from done, but going from worst-to-first in one year is something not many teams can say they do each year. With two of Johnson’s checklist items down, the final goal hinged on landing the No. 1 seed. Unfortunately, with Sunday night’s last-second loss in San Francisco, that is no longer possible. That said, Bears fans should fully expect this team to give it their all to lock down the two-seed next Sunday afternoon.
2. Sunday Night Was Yet Another Datapoint To Show Everyone That The Bears Can Hang In Tough Matchups With Elite Opponents.
Did the Bears ultimately lose? They sure did. Was the defense awful? You betcha! Even so, it’s almost impossible for me to come away from Sunday night’s thriller feeling anything more than optimistic about the near and long-term future of this franchise. Although the offense continues to throw out inconsistent performances throughout the course of a 60-minute game, they’ve continued to find ways to have a chance to win, even in the unlikeliest of endings.
I’ve said it before, and I’ll continue to repeat it, but 2025 shouldn’t be about a Super Bowl run. After all, this was the same team that had a combined 15 wins over their three previous seasons. The primary goals for this season were establishing a new culture, learning how to win, and, if all went well, sneaking into the playoffs. Instead, this team won the NFC North for the first time in seven years, went into Week 17 with a real chance at the No. 1 seed in the conference, and still has a chance to win 12 games if all goes well next Sunday.
The goal when drafting Caleb Williams or hiring Ben Johnson was never about one season. We’ve seen the Bears’ flash-in-the-pan act. While it might be fun in the heat of the moment, it always ends in disappointment. No matter how the final few games (including the playoffs) go, there’s no other option but to label 2025 as a complete and total success. Would it hurt to lose three in a row to end the season? Sure.
Here’s the reality, though: No matter how the season ends (barring a Super Bowl victory), the final game (and loss) is going to sting for longer than usual. That’s just how sports go.
What really matters beyond any additional experience gained for a young team is how they build on this season. On paper, there’s plenty to be excited about. They have a young, ascending quarterback who can make plays most humans couldn’t dream of. They have one of the best offensive play-callers in the league as their head coach, and on top of that, he’s assembled a great coaching staff that is deliberately designed to stay together for more than a year or two. If that wasn’t enough, how about this rookie class? Their top two picks look like stars in the making. Ozzy Trapilo has done enough to earn the benefit of a longer look as the starting left tackle in Year 2. Kyle Monangai has become a legitimate No. 2 option in the league’s third-most potent rushing attack. Even sixth-round pick Luke Newman looks like he could develop into a future starter on the interior of the offensive line.
There’s no denying that the defense needs plenty of work. Despite significant investments, their defensive line ranks among the league’s worst. They don’t currently have a safety under contract heading into 2026, and there are plenty of questions about how general manager Ryan Poles will handle their tight cap situation this offseason. Even with all of the questions surrounding this team, it’s worth remembering that the core of their offense is entirely in place for 2026 and beyond.
The team we saw on Sunday night, which fought until the final second of the game, is essentially the same team we’ll see heading into next season. Add in another quality draft class and a few free agent pick-ups, and there are plenty of reasons for optimism.
Make no mistake: Even with a loss to drop them out of the race for the top seed in the NFC, this is just the beginning. They are hanging around and beating teams that should be (on paper) better than them. Yet, they clinched the division, have strong odds to land the second seed, and have just as good a chance as any team in the conference to win a playoff game. All of this, while arriving a year early.
3. Coming Into Sunday Night, The San Francisco 49ers Had Not Punted In Almost A Calendar Month, And The Bears Were Coming Off A Game In Which Their Opponent Did Not Punt.
As the 49ers have become a healthier team, their offense has been making significant strides toward becoming a Top 5-7 unit. Despite not punting since late November, they’ve averaged 37 points per game over their previous three games. Granted, two of those opponents were the Cleveland Browns and Tennessee Titans, but it’s easy to see why they’ve started to figure things out on that side of the ball.
On the other side of the ball, Chicago’s defense is giving up plenty of yards, but not nearly as many points as one would assume, considering everything else. They’ve given up an average of just 15.67 points per game. Again, looks can be deceiving, but when it has really mattered, they have kept teams out of the end zone. They’ve just struggled to stop anyone in between the 20s.
On paper, it made for an exciting matchup, especially with both teams sharing similar numbers on both sides of the ball. Although football isn’t played on paper, this matchup delivered exactly what it projected.
Santa Clara, and the rest of the world, were treated to a good old-fashioned offensive slug-fest that came down to the wire. The 49ers won on the scoreboard, and frankly, won in the box score in most categories. Even then, the Bears were one play away from leaving the Bay Area with their 12th win of the season in a game that could have gotten away from them multiple times.
Sunday night’s loss wasn’t all roses, though. The defense gave up 32 first downs, 496 total yards, and 42 points. Outside of the pick-six to open up the action, it was a horrible outing for a defense that has struggled most of the season. Somehow, the Bears were the only team to force a sack or a takeaway. However, that’s about where the fun ended for the defense on the night.
Offensively, for the Bears, they ended up punting more, but their second-year quarterback stood toe-to-toe with one of the Top 7-10 quarterbacks in the league all night. Williams finished 25-of-42 for 330 yards, two touchdowns, and no interceptions. He added 18 yards on the ground, and for the fourth time this season, wasn’t sacked. Despite a few inaccurate passes, the majority of his misses came from throwaways, drops, or throws he tried to extend, but nothing was there. Although it wouldn’t be fair to categorize his night as “perfect” by any means, it was one of his best performances all season.
If the seeding worked out differently, this could be one of those games that people would love to see again in the postseason. That said, the 49ers have a real shot at the 1st seed, but if they fail, and the Rams win out, there’s a scenario where the two teams could run it back on Wild Card weekend, only this time at Soldier Field.
We’ll dive more into potential Wild Card weekend scenarios in a few, but I’ll leave you with a few historical facts that came out of Week 17’s shootout:
- QB Caleb Williams logged his 23rd game (in 33 starts) without an interception. That’s the most games by any quarterback in the first two years of their careers.
- The Bears became the first team in NFL history to record a defensive touchdown, score 35-plus points, have no turnovers, allow no sacks, and lose a game.
- Sunday night’s game was the first time in NFL history where two teams had tied the game at scores of 7-7, 14-14, 21-21, 28-28, and 35-35.
Long story short, the Bears were not only involved in one of the most exciting games of the season, but also one with multiple historical markers that may never be experienced again.
4. With The Division And Only The No. 2 and 3 Seed In Play, How Will Ben Johnson And Company Handle Week 18 With Very Little To Play For?
Since 2020, 50% of the No. 1 seeds have made the Super Bowl. Although the sample size is just eight teams, that’s enough to see a clear advantage. Unfortunately for the Bears, the top seed is no longer possible following Sunday night’s last-second loss.
We’ll dive more into the possible Wild Card Weekend matchups in a bit, but for now, we’ll focus more on next Sunday.
Earlier in the weekend, Lions head coach Dan Campbell said that he wants to see his team finish strong. He made it sound like anyone healthy and able will be on the field, and you can bet that he’ll be looking to finish above .500, even if it doesn’t mean anything for the playoff picture. Now, that doesn’t mean key players won’t be missing, but the risk of further injury versus just resting them is two different conversations.
From a health standpoint, the Bears are in good shape (pending Luther Burden’s status), at least when you’re looking to the Wild Card round. The flu virus has raged through the team’s locker room, and the hope is that in two weeks it’ll be over and everyone will be healthy. Could that impact how the Bears handle next weekend? A lot of that depends on how much they value the No. 2 seed, especially with the Eagles winning on Sunday afternoon.
The apparent advantage of the two-seed is simple: It guarantees them at least two home games from the Wild Card round through the Divisional Round. With the third seed, those chances shrink a little, depending on what happens in front of them. Two of the three wild-card teams (both in the NFC West) appear to be stronger than the Eagles or whoever wins the NFC South.
There will be plenty of calculus that goes into their decision on how they want to handle Week 18, but I’m putting money on Johnson leaning on what he knew in Detroit: playing all healthy, available starters. We already know that Campbell and the Lions will be doing the same. Not only that, but Williams is exactly 270 passing yards away from becoming the first quarterback in franchise history to eclipse that marker. Call it a gut feeling, but considering how Johnson has acknowledged that number before, I’m willing to bet that he’s got some skin in the game too when it comes to breaking that record in Year 1, on top of everything else they’ve already accomplished.
5. The Pro Bowl Rosters Were Announced On Tuesday. Why The Bears Should Have Had More Than Three Players Make It.
It happens without fail. The good teams send the most guys to the Pro Bowl, while the bad teams are primarily forgotten about. We’ve seen the latter happen with the Bears plenty of times. Luckily for them, they received some of the recognition they deserved, but maybe not all.
For those who aren’t sure how the Pro Bowl formula works, let’s take a surface-level look:
It’s a weighted formula equally based on three factors: fan voting, player voting, and coaches’ voting. In the end, it comes down to a numbers game, since they no longer strap on the pads and play a “game”. Because of that, there will always be a certain level of snubs involved, and the Bears weren’t safe from it either.
Safety Kevin Byard, center Drew Dalman, and left guard Joe Thuney all made the Pro Bowl, and all three were more than deserving. That said, two snubs stood out to me, and only one of them was understandable. The understandable name missing from the list was right tackle Darnell Wright. For as good as he has been, the three names ( Penei Sewell, Tristan Wirfs, and Trent Williams) selected in front of him are elite and well-deserving. That was more about a numbers game than anything else.
The one snub that stuck out to me was the leader in takeaways, Nashon Wright. He has been far from perfect and has allowed more touchdowns than is desirable, but he’s been improving every week, while ranking first in total takeaways and second in interceptions. More importantly, Wright will be a free agent come March, and any additional accolades will only add to his value if he hits the open market. It’s also worth mentioning that the Bears had two players who finished in the top 10 in the final portion of the fan voting.
Fans did their jobs, and with an injury or two, the Bears could see another player make it as an alternate. Either way, it was great to see some players get proper recognition, but also disappointing to see others not being rewarded for great seasons. Such is life when it comes to the Pro Bowl, right?
6. Heading Into The Playoffs, The Bears Seem To Be Getting Healthy At The Right Time.
The Bears have kept on winning, so forcing players back out onto the field hasn’t been a necessity. That includes receivers Rome Odunze and Luther Burden III. With the playoffs just two weeks from kicking off, this team appears to be getting healthy right into a potential playoff run.
Johnson has said on multiple occasions that Odunze will “help” them this year. Could that be Week 18? If there’s something to play for, absolutely. The team’s head coach has also mentioned the possibility of getting Kyler Gordon back in time for the playoffs, but I’m a little more skeptical about that one. Even so, it appears that C.J. Gardner-Johnson avoided a serious knee injury as he was active for Sunday night’s game and played plenty of snaps. Couple that with a healthy Jaylon Johnson and Tyrique Stevenson, and they should have plenty of depth to finish out the season. Assuming that Burden’s injury isn’t anything too serious, the Bears could enter the playoffs as the healthiest they’ve been all season.
Luckily for Chicago, they’ve yet to lose too many players for the season. The same can’t be for many other teams in the playoffs, including the only other team in their division. Their depth has been tested at times, but most of it has been on a short-term timeline. Assuming no big injuries happen between now and the start of the playoffs, the Bears could end up being one of the healthier teams in the playoffs. Outside of playing their best football in December and January, being the healthier team should play as a significant advantage. The flu running through the building is less than ideal, but the timing should help them avoid missing key players when it truly matters in two weeks.
Although I expect health to be a factor in their decisions about who plays in the regular-season finale, I also wish Johnson would lean heavily on how Campbell performed during his time in Detroit. Johnson has never struck me as the type of coach to run away from an immediate challenge, just to play the “what if” game. Either way, this is a team that should be entering the playoffs as healthy, if not more nutritious than they were heading into Week 1.
7. Dissecting Each Playoff Scenario For The Bears Heading Into Week 18.
As we’ve already covered, any chances of the Bears earning the NFC’s top seed are gone and dead. While it would have been a great story to not only go from worst-to-first, but also from the bottom of the NFC North cellar to the top of the NFC as a whole, there are only so many “feel good” stories that can be expected in one season.
Now that we’ve washed that from our brains, let’s take a look at what’s really possible.
First, we’ll start with seeding. Heading into Sunday’s regular-season finale, the Bears have two different possible outcomes. It’s worth noting that all scenarios would lead to them hosting at least one game at Soldier Field.
Two-seed: A Win and they’ll host the Packers on Wild Card weekend. That’s it. That’s the entire scenario for the two-seed.
Three-seed: A loss, coupled with an Eagles win. There would be three possible opponents, all from the NFC West.
- 49ers: A loss to the Seahawks, coupled with two Rams wins.
- Rams: One loss over their final two games.
- Seahawks: A loss to the 49ers, coupled with two Rams wins.
Of the four matchups, we’ve already seen two play out. Chicago is 1-1 against the Packers, with its win coming at Soldier Field last Saturday, while the other obvious matchup was with the 49ers on the road, which came down to the final play of the game. All three matchups came down to the final play of the game, but the Bears did finish with a record of 1-2. I’d argue that facing the 49ers at home, even with a healthy Trent Williams and George Kittle, should give fans confidence that they could win. The Packers are a team they’ve already beat, but it’s worth noting that the Bears have yet to hold a lead on Green Bay in regulation, despite playing a full 120 minutes of game time.
Seattle is a well-rounded team, but any team you can get from the West Coast into a cold and hostile environment, there’s something to be said for that. A similar argument could be made for the Rams. However, quarterback Matthew Stafford and receiver Davante Adams spent more than half their careers in the NFC North, so the advantage might not be as significant for them as it would be for the Seahawks or 49ers.
In the end, no playoff matchup is going to be easy. That’s a given that we’ve all learned over the years when watching the Bears fail more often than not when it comes to January football. There can be such things as favorable matchups, although I would argue that of their four potential Wild Card Weekend opponents, there’s no clear-cut favorite. The only true advantage I see in the seeding, at least in the NFC for 2025, is the fifth-seed getting a crack at the NFC South winner. Neither team has played well, and a distinct possibility remains that the division winner (the fourth seed) could have a losing record.
No matter how Week 18 plays out, Bears fans should expect a challenging and hard-fought game at Soldier Field. Being at home should give them an edge in trying to win a playoff game.
8. Your Weekly Update To The NFC Playoff Picture.
Considering there’s not going to be a lot of movement, we’ll keep this shorter than usual. With their loss on Christmas, the Lions have been eliminated. Their loss also allowed the Packers to clinch a playoff spot. Green Bay’s loss on Saturday night locks them into the seventh and final spot. That means that coming into the Saturday and Sunday slate of matchups, there was one remaining spot up for grabs, and that was in the NFC South.
With a Panthers win and a Buccaneers loss, Carolina would win the NFC South for the first time since 2015, when Cam Newton was at the height of his career. Anything short of that scenario would leave the NFC South title to Week 18, and that’s precisely what happened. The Buccaneers’ string of foul play reached an unbelievable 1-7 over their last eight games. The Panthers had a golden opportunity against the NFC’s top seed, but in the end, their offense couldn’t get the job done.
The rest of these spots come down to seeding. The Seahawks had a one-game margin heading into the weekend, but the Rams, Bears, and 49ers were hot on their tail. Without winning out, Seattle will not land the bye week once the playoffs start. The Week 18 road matchup with the 49ers will decide the conference’s top seed, while the other could drop as low as the sixth-seed.
Following all the results (except for the Rams’ game), here’s how things are shaking out heading into the final week of the season.
- Seattle Seahawks (13-3) *Clinched Playoff Spot (Can Clinch The Top Seed With A Win)
- Chicago Bears (11-5) *Clinched Division (Can Land The 2nd Or 3rd Seed)
- Philadelphia Eagles (11-5) *Clinched Division (Can Land The 2nd Or 3rd Seed)
- Carolina Panthers (8-8) (Can Clinch The Division With A Win Or Atlanta Winning Out)
- San Francisco 49ers (12-4) *Clinched Playoff Spot (Can Clinch The Top Seed With A Win)
- Los Angeles Rams (11-4) *Clinched Playoff Spot *Plays Monday Night
- Green Bay Packers (9-6-1) *Clinched Playoff Spot (Locked Into The 7th Seed)
In The Hunt:
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-9) (Can Clinch The Division With A Win And A Falcons’ Loss)
Eliminated: New York Giants (2-13), Arizona Cardinals (3-11), Washington Commanders (4-12), New Orleans Saints (5-10), Atlanta Falcons (6-9), Minnesota Vikings (8-8), Dallas Cowboys (7-8-1), Detroit Lions (8-8)
9. NFC North Lookaround: Following A Vikings’ Win, The Lions Have Been Officially Eliminated, And The Packers Have Officially Clinched A Playoff Spot, Even With A Loss.
When the schedule was released in May, the three-game Christmas Day slate looked like one for the ages. After all, five of the six teams that played on Thursday were in the playoffs a year ago. Instead, we saw one playoff team (the Denver Broncos), and it was a low-scoring, somewhat dull affair. The second game of the day featured a pair of NFC North foes. One had plenty to play for, while the other was just looking to build some pride heading into the offseason.
Despite being heavily favored, the Lions came out flat and never seemed to figure it out. The Vikings were without multiple key players, including their starting quarterback, best pass rusher, and starting left tackle. Yet, they looked like the team with more to prove. It would have taken quite a few things to go right for the Lions to have a shot at the playoffs, but plenty of teams are driving on the fumes of hopes and dreams this time of year. Instead, Detroit laid an egg on the road, and because of that, they joined Minnesota as one of eight teams that have officially been eliminated from playoff contention.
Two days later, we got more Saturday Night Football, this time with the Packers hosting a desperate Baltimore Ravens squad that cannot afford to lose another game this season. Both teams featured backup quarterbacks making starts thanks to various injuries to Jordan Love and Lamar Jackson. Despite neither playing on Saturday, it was a highly entertaining game. In fact, Malik Willis has made himself quite a bit of money over the last six quarters of football. In the end, the Packers’ defense couldn’t get after the quarterback or stop Derrick Henry. With their 41-24 loss at Lambeau Field, they have nothing to play for in Week 18. That should allow them to get healthy for the playoffs, where they’ll be facing whoever is crowned the 2nd seed next weekend.
Heading into Week 18, here’s what the NFC North Standings look like:
Chicago Bears (11-4)
Up next: Vs Detroit Lions
Green Bay Packers (9-6-1)
Up next: At Minnesota Vikings
Minnesota Vikings (8-8)
Up next: Vs Green Bay Packers
Detroit Lions (8-8)
Up next: At Chicago Bears
10. Week 18 Look Ahead: The Regular Season Finale Against The Detroit Lions At Soldier Field.
Heading into a Christmas afternoon showdown with the Vikings, the Lions’ season was hanging by a thread. Not only would they have needed to win out, but they would have needed the Packers to lose their two remaining games. What could have set up as a fun Week 18 with something to play for quickly turned into a season-ending showing in front of a home crowd. Simply put, the Lions are struggling. They got down early to the Vikings, and it seemed like it reached a point where they didn’t want to be on the field playing football anymore. Not to take anything away from Minnesota’s defense, but how does a Lions’ offense get shut down that badly at home? Even if their playoff hopes were considered a long shot heading into Week 17, their play didn’t resemble a team that had any plans of playing meaningful football in January.
With the Bears having clinched the division and the Lions’ season officially over, Detroit has nothing (but pride?) to play for over the final week of the regular season. Considering how banged up they are all over the roster, it shouldn’t shock anyone if they don’t take chances with some of their star players like Amon-Ra St. Brown. I’m sure, to a certain extent, the weather will play a role in who they decide to sit with. While I wouldn’t expect Dan Campbell to throw in the towel completely, I’m not sure a win does very much for them in the long run.
For the Bears, there was still plenty on the table heading into Sunday night’s shootout. In the end, they lost on a failed last-second attempt at the endzone, but gained plenty of respect along the way. We’ve known for a while now that the defense was ultimately going to be their downfall, and after a 38-point performance that still resulted in a loss, there should be no doubt where the improvements this offseason need to come from.
That said, there’s still plenty on the line for both teams. The Lions will be fighting for pride and a fourth consecutive winning season, while a win for the Bears at Soldier Field would result in the No. 2 seed and a rubber match against the banged-up and struggling Packers. I’m not going to sit here and make any grand proclamations one way or the other, because we all know how unpredictable the playoffs can be, regardless of seeding. I’m sure Johnson would love to get his first win against his former head coach, but when all is said and done, getting into the playoffs as healthy as possible is going to be their most significant advantage, especially with at least one guaranteed home game.
Although Week 18 won’t be for the No. 1 seed, there are still plenty of reasons to tune in and get excited about it. That, in itself, should be a win.
