As the saying goes, all good things must come to an end. And end it did. The Bears’ four-game win streak, their first since 2018, came to a screeching halt in Baltimore, where the Ravens handed Chicago a 30–16 loss on Sunday.
The Bears were outplayed in every phase. Backup quarterback Tyler Huntley gave the patchwork Chicago secondary fits, Derrick Henry returned to form with two rushing touchdowns, and Baltimore’s defense, bolstered by the return of key players like linebacker Roquan Smith and cornerback Chidobe Awuzie, executed a sharp game plan that stifled a Bears offense that had topped 21 points in every game until now.
Online discourse after the loss was immediate and predictably knee-jerk in both directions. But as usual, the truth sat somewhere in the middle, and Bears head coach
Ben Johnson confirmed as much.
He played better this game than I think he had the previous two. When you look at it, all 60 minutes, and I’m not saying it’s perfect. I actually came away, from watching the tape this morning, encouraged that we took a step in the right direction here this week. I know for some people it’s hard maybe rationalize because the result wasn’t there. But yeah, I saw tangible growth from him. He’s working his ass off. –Ben Johnson on Caleb Williams progress in Week 8.
I was eager to get my hands on the film, and when it became available, I watched Caleb Williams’ game first. That’s something I normally save for last when going through my list of quarterbacks to grade. The film and the final game score both confirmed what Coach Johnson said. It wasn’t perfect, and there were some glaring mistakes, but overall this was his best start since the Cowboys game.
Caleb mostly threw the ball with conviction, and his ability to throw with anticipation and accuracy was on display throughout the game (interception aside). His on-target throwing percentage climbed back up to 64.9% after dipping to 59.3% last week. His adjusted completion percentage, a metric that gives a truer indication of accuracy by accounting for drops, throwaways, spikes, batted passes, and passes affected by quarterback hits, was a season-high 76.5%.
As always, we’ll dive into what went right for the young quarterback and what went wrong. But from my perspective, and many of my colleagues, Week 8 against the Ravens was a stepping stone, not a reversion to 2024.
For a bit more insight on this, I’d suggest checking out Matt Waldman, who took a deep dive into Caleb’s start in the 663rd edition of
The Gut Check.
But for now, let’s get into some benchmark metrics, notes, and play breakdowns!
Benchmarks
(Season Averages in
Italics)
C/A: 19.3/30.8 (62.7%) | 25/38 (65.8%)
Yards: 225.2 | 285
aDOT: 8.6 | 8.9
Touchdowns: 1.8 | 0
Turnovers: 0.5 | 1
QB at Fault Sacks: 1 | 0
Passer Rating: 92.9| 77.2
True Passer Rating: 128.6| 127.2
Time to Throw: 3.00s | 2.78s
Time to Pressure: 2.62s | 2.53s
Pressure Rate: 31.21% | 26.19%
On-Target Rate: 63.5% | 64.9%
Poor Play Rate / Big Play Rate: 12.7% PPR / 6.6% BPR | 14.0% PPR / 7.0% BRP
Game Notes
The full grading sheet for each play can be found
here.
- NFL Passer Rating / True Passer Rating / PFF Grade: 77.2 / 118.6 / 60.0
- The average passer rating in the 2025 season sits at 93.7, meaning anything around a 77.2 NFL Passer Rating would be considered below average. (This would be a good example of why I think the NFL Passer Rating is a flawed metric.)
- A 118.6 TPR falls into the slightly Above Average range, with 100 serving as the baseline for “Average.”
- And on the PFF scale, a 60.0 is a dead average performance.
- On-Target Throws: Season Average: 63.5% | Week 8 vs. Ravens: 64.9%
- A slight but encouraging uptick after last week’s dip in on-target accuracy.
- Short-Level Passing (Behind LOS – 9 yards): 18/24 | 75.0% On-Target
- Deep-Level Passing (10–20+ yards): 6/13 | 46.2% On-Target
- 14.0% Poor Play Rate (turnover-worthy + poorly graded plays) against a 7.0% Big Play Rate (great + elite graded plays)
- He continues to embody a true boom-or-bust profile in PPR/BPR splits.
- Among the seven quarterbacks I’ve graded this year, Caleb leads the group in PPR% (technically second if you count J.J. McCarthy, who hasn’t played since Week 2). Inaccuracy remains the primary driver of his high PPR rate, but the hope is that improved ball placement will bring those numbers down over time. For reference, his 2024 PPR sat at 9.3%.
- On the other end, he ranks 3rd in BPR% and 2nd in total Big Plays (Elite + Great), highlighting the upside that keeps him competitive despite the inconsistency.
- One final note: his average plays graded per game have dipped from 44.8 in 2024 to 34.9 this season, a drop that could be influencing both efficiency and volatility metrics.
- Time to throw hit a season low this week, charting in at 2.78 seconds.
- TTT is a metric I believe is mostly misunderstood. A high TTT only becomes a real issue if your pressure-to-sack percentage starts to balloon, like Caleb’s did in 2024 (28.2%, the worst in the league, compared to 14.0% in 2025, which is tied for 10th best). A single play where he extends the pocket for six or seven seconds can add roughly 0.15-0.30 seconds depending on total number of dropbacks to his average time to throw. That’s simply the nature of the beast with quarterbacks who make a living off extending plays.
- The Bears offensive line had a performance in pass protection, allowing a season-low 26.19% pressure rate. That figure held despite an early quick sack, where left tackle Theo Benedet gave up pressure in just 1.85 seconds.
- Combined with Caleb’s pocket time to throw of just 2.39 seconds, the Ravens managed only 11 pressures on 42 total dropbacks.
- The passing game over the middle came alive again this week. Across all levels, Caleb went 14-for-16 for 135 yards, averaging 8.4 yards per attempt with a 101.8 passer rating and a 125.6 TPR.
- Behind LOS: 2-for-2, 24 yards, 12.0 YPA, 116.7 Passer Rating.
- TPR’s ADOT bonus scales harshly the farther it gets from 7.0, so TPR isn’t a particularly useful metric for this depth range.
- Short (0-9yds): 8-for-9, 46 yards, 6.1 YPA, 88.0 Passer Rating, 90.8 TPR.
- Mid (10-19yds): 3-for-4, 45 yards, 11.3 YPA, 111.5 Passer Rating, 182.7 TPR.
- Deep (20+ yds): 1-for-1, 20 yards, 20.0 YPA, 118.8 Passer Rating, 295.8 TPR.
- Caleb and Rome regained their rhythm this week, connecting 10 times for 114 yards. Rome was also the only wide receiver to top 100 yards.
- That number could have been even better if not for an untimely drop on a throw down the sideline. If there’s one knock on Rome right now, it’s that his hands still fall short of elite.
- It was also great to finally see some ad-lib chemistry between Caleb and DJ near the end of the fourth quarter. It feels like it’s been forever since those two connected on an extended play. It was a bit chaotic, with Caleb lobbing the ball to space while two defenders closed in on him, but DJ tracked it beautifully in the air and came down with a highlight catch.
- Caleb had two intentional grounding calls on the afternoon, a rare occurrence.
- The first I graded as Ungraded, pressure is near immediate, D’Andre Swift doesn’t help the cause by failing to pick up either free rusher, Caleb tries to by time with his feet but it’s too late, he attempts to ditch the ball, but gets hit with a grounded. It is of my opinion that there was nothing Caleb could have done on this play besides take a sack.
- The second is similar but I graded as Poor, the Ravens bring immediate pressure forcing Caleb into a quick throw. He throws to his right, however nowhere near a receiver. He had Colston Loveland running an out route. Caleb has to do a better job getting the ball closer to one of his guys, he has the arm talent to do it (as we see with his deep completion late to DJ Moore.)
Play Reviews
The plays we’ll be reviewing are presented in the order they occurred in the game.
Situation: 1st Quarter, 2nd and 9 CHI41 13:48
Play Grade: Above Average
Result: 16 Yard Completion to Rome Odunze
Notes: (+) Anticipation, (+) Mid Level Accuracy and Placement
pic.twitter.com/3cWA61GOur
— Grim Cutty (@iamcogs)
October 30, 2025
Analysis: The first play we’ll look at is Caleb’s second throw of the day. It’s a low-to-high read, with Colston Loveland running a stutter-drag underneath and Rome working the dig route over the middle. Caleb could have delivered the ball a touch earlier to hit Rome with a bit more separation, but the throw still showed good accuracy and enough anticipation to pick up a solid gain over the middle and move the chains. This continues a drive that the Bears ultimately
Situation: 1st Quarter, 1st and 10 CHI41 3:22
Play Grade: Good
Result: 21 Yard Completion to Rome Odunze
Notes: (+) Anticipation, (++) Mid Level Accuracy and Placement
pic.twitter.com/3N3Lo6pWiw
— Grim Cutty (@iamcogs)
October 30, 2025
Analysis: The next throw comes on the ensuing drive. With the Ravens showing a single-high safety look, Caleb makes the right read by targeting Rome on the out route. If the coverage had been tighter, he likely would have checked down to Kyle Monangai in the flat.
Caleb delivers a well-anticipated ball, leading his receiver perfectly toward the sideline and allowing him to catch it in stride before turning up-field for some extra yards after the catch. He showed the ability to deliver accurate, well-timed throws throughout the afternoon, and this play was no exception.
Situation: 1st Quarter, 3rd and 7 BAL22 00:11
Play Grade: Poor
Result: 16 Yard Completion to Rome Odunze
Notes: (—-) Mid Level Accuracy and Placement
pic.twitter.com/ZHQ2wT0NY0
— Grim Cutty (@iamcogs)
October 30, 2025
Analysis:On to the next throw, this one being a poor pass that ended the drive and forced the Bears to settle for another field goal. This play is an example of Caleb either not working through his reads or speeding up his process and delivering an inaccurate ball, or both. Once he sees Rome getting slowed off the line, he could move off that read and work the levels concept at the bottom of the screen. With a well-timed throw, he likely could have hit Zaccheaus on the out route for an easy gain and first down.
Instead, Caleb stays locked on his number one receiver, which is understandable given how hot Rome started the game. With a little more patience in the pocket, this could have been an easy pitch and catch, as Rome eventually gained solid separation from his defender. But Caleb rushed the process and threw too early, giving his receiver no real chance to make a play on the ball.
Situation: 3rd Quarter, 3rd and 6 CHI39 00:57
Play Grade: Great
Result: 27 Yard Completion to Rome Odunze
Notes: (+) Anticipation, (+) Explosive Play, (++) Deep Level Accuracy and Placement
pic.twitter.com/iDtnPiJMJL
— Grim Cutty (@iamcogs)
October 30, 2025
Analysis: This was one of my favorite throws of the afternoon and a perfect example of high-level quarterback play. The Bears are running a flood concept: Zaccheaus runs the clear-out route deep, DJ Moore runs the short out, and Rome runs the post route into the soft zone between the deep safety and the underneath corner.
Caleb fields the snap and holds the safety toward the middle of the field during his dropback. With the Ravens in Cover 2, Zaccheaus does an excellent job pushing vertically to pull the safety deeper. After Caleb finishes his drop, he hitches toward the out route to DJ, influencing the underneath defenders just enough to create a pocket of separation between the high and low zones. He then fires a perfectly timed and accurate ball to Rome, allowing him to turn upfield and pick up extra yards after the catch.
Situation: 4th Quarter, 3rd and 6 BAL30 14:14
Play Grade: Average
Result: 25 Yard Completion to D'Andre Swift
Notes: (+) Pre-Snap Intangibles
pic.twitter.com/Lk8B4zjO4l
— Grim Cutty (@iamcogs)
October 30, 2025
Analysis: I picked this play not to highlight the throw or accuracy, but to show the pre-snap process Caleb displayed in identifying the Ravens defense and checking into a different play to exploit it. The Ravens have seven men on the line of scrimmage, showing pre-snap pressure. Caleb correctly recognizes it and checks into a screen to D’Andre Swift. If that look had been blown up by the front seven, he had DJ running a crossing route underneath as a secondary option.
Caleb fields the snap, invites the rush upfield, and dumps the ball off to Swift, who has a small convoy of blockers in front of him. The play goes for 25 yards and sets the Bears up with first and goal, a drive they would later finish with a two-yard D’Andre Swift touchdown run. A perfect check into a screen to take advantage of the man-to-man coverage and voids left by the oncoming blitz.
Situation: 4th Quarter, 2nd and 10 CHI4 09:08
Play Grade: Poor
Result: Interception by Nate Wiggins
Notes: (–) Anticipation, (–) Mid Level Inaccuracy and Ball Placement, (–) Turnover
pic.twitter.com/uIl8z69ytq
— Grim Cutty (@iamcogs)
October 30, 2025
Analysis: On to the interception. There was a lot of discourse surrounding this throw. Caleb said it was a good read but a bad throw, while Ben Johnson mentioned there may have been a better option underneath, which likely refers to Monangai leaking out into the flat from the backfield. I think both are right. Caleb made the correct initial read, but because he was late and inaccurate on the throw, it ended up being the wrong choice. He should have recognized he was late and moved on to the better option underneath, just as Ben mentioned.
Rome is running another dig route over the middle, and in my opinion, Caleb was right to call it the correct read. He was simply late in making it. Rome’s defender is playing off coverage, and if the ball is thrown on time as Rome is breaking or just coming out of his break, an accurate pass likely gets there before Wiggins has a chance to undercut the route.
Instead, Caleb hesitates. Whether he didn’t trust the initial window or was just late pulling the trigger, that hesitation gave the defender enough time to close the gap. The throw being slightly behind Rome made matters worse, allowing Wiggins to jump the route and force the turnover. A ball delivered on time and out in front likely avoids the interception, which ultimately led to a Ravens touchdown.
Situation: 4th Quarter, 2nd and 10 BAL45 1:56
Play Grade: Elite
Result: 42 Yard Completion to DJ Moore
Notes: (+) Pocket Movement, (+) Explosive Play, (+) Deep Level Ball Placement, (++) Playmaking Under Extreme Pressure
pic.twitter.com/5jcVqQmvfr
— Grim Cutty (@iamcogs)
October 30, 2025
Analysis: The last throw we’ll take a look at comes on a play where, based on the design, Caleb should initially be working the sail concept on the bottom of the screen. Rome breaks open on the route, but the Ravens bring pressure that disrupts the process and forces Caleb to extend the play early. He does a great job buying time in the pocket, avoiding defenders in the backfield, and giving DJ Moore enough time to look back and spot Caleb lofting the ball downfield in his direction.
Moore does an outstanding job tracking the ball deep and an even better job securing the catch with one outstretched hand, securing the catch he hustles all the way down to the Ravens 5 for a 45-yard gain. This play is a showcase of Caleb’s raw arm talent and his ability to create something out of nothing. Throwing the ball from his own 40, flat-footed, to the opponent’s 30 on the opposite hash is a throw only a handful of quarterbacks in the league can make.
Summary
His final scores of
1st Half (0.60) / 2nd Half (1.25) / Game (1.85) gives him a upper half
“Average” game grade for week 8.
Of the seven quarterbacks I grade (and only four who played this week due to injuries and byes)
Williams placed 4th, 0.25 behind Bo Nix of the Broncos.
Weekly scores of every QB I grade can be found
here.
Caleb Williams and the Chicago Bears continue on the road, heading to Cincinnati to face the Bengals and their 32nd ranked passing defense. Knowing this, it is my hope that this passing offense takes another step forward this week, especially after seeing the success the New York Jets had against them, stunning them with a 39-38 come from behind victory. Either way, we will see you here next week to break everything down! Until then, Bear Down!
Gary Baugher Jr. is a rookie contributor to WCG, bringing football insight backed by over 16 years of experience in organized football and more than 30 years as a passionate fan of the game. You can follow him on Twitter at @iamcogs.
