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Playoff previews, implications, and intensity to cap off a wild NBA season. Let’s do this.
And just like that, we have one week of NBA regular season action left. While that will lead to sighs of relief for
Sixers fans, a brief respite of stress and anger until the draft lottery rolls around, many teams in the association are in jaw-clenching and hair-pulling time.
Particularly, those teams in seeds 3-8 of the Western Conference, who are about as close as can be. One day they have homecourt advantage, the next they are in the play-in. This week’s game to watch column will largely focus on those teams. But the Detroit Pistons and Milwaukee Bucks are still jostling for position in the East, so they’ll get some love here, too.
It is going to be a wild week. So, get the calendar ready and book your couch time. It’s time to celebrate the end of this dreadful Sixers season by watching high-intensity, high-stakes, highly skilled hoops. I know you’ve been starved of it.
Apr. 8:
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Milwaukee Bucks
The seventh-seeded Minnesota Timberwolves are one of five Western Conference teams with 32 losses. Every single game they play from here on out is vitally important. Unfortunately for them, they’ll face Giannis Antetokounmpo, a two-time MVP playing the best basketball of his life.
He’s dropped at least 30 points in his last six games. Over his last three, he’s averaging 36 points on 63% field goal with 13.7 assists and 11.7 rebounds. He backed up a 35/20/17 game with a 37/10/15 one. If not for Denver’s Nikola Jokic, those would be historic stat lines. He’s been unstoppable, but the Timberwolves might be able to slow him down just enough.
They’ve gone 12-3 in their last 15 games and, on the back of the third-best offensive rating and 10-best defensive rating, earned the fifth-best net rating in that time. Rudy Gobert has the second-best defensive rating of all players playing at least 25 minutes per game in that stretch. Him vs Giannis will be an enthralling matchup of rim warfare punctuated by time-warping dunks or blocks.
On offense, Anthony Edwards has had a fantastic end to the season and should cook a wilting and weak Bucks perimeter. He, too, could detonate at the rim, maybe all over Giannis or Brook Lopez. But everyone knows how dangerous he is.
The X-Factor for this team now and through the playoffs is Julius Randle. Randle has had an inconsistent season, but has rounded into form recently, averaging an efficient 18 points in his last 15 games. But can that last? And can it contribute to a deep playoff run? Those are the questions that have to be answered positively for this T’Wolves team in this home stretch. We’ll find out a portion of the answer on Tuesday night.
Apr. 9:
Houston Rockets @ Los Angeles Clippers
After falling to the fifth seed in mid-March, the Houston Rockets rediscovered their athletic and scrappy stride, riding an 11-2 run to secure themselves as the West’s second seed.
Since Mar. 13, the beginning of that run, the Rockets have the third-best offense, the fifth-best defense, and the third-best net rating. They’ve beaten Golden State and Oklahoma City in their last two games, but have also fallen to the Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Lakers recently.
They’re undoubtedly exciting and one of the most well-coached teams in the league, but, regarding a deep playoff run, they’re the least trustworthy team in the West’s top six. They don’t have a bona fide offensive star, and their offense can look flawed and cluttered at times. The wins over OKC and Golden State prove they can win big games, but this matchup against the Clippers will be another big test. And it may be a first-round preview.
I mentioned that the Rockets have the third-best net rating since Mar. 13. The Clippers have the best. And they have the best defense. And they have the second-best offense. They’ve climbed up to the fifth seed after living in the play-in seeds for the majority of the year (but that could and will change every day).
So, how have they done it? Kawhi Leonard. Kawhi Leonard is how they’ve done it. Yes, James Harden has been a brilliant distributor, Ivica Zubac is playing like a top-five center, and Tyronn Lue has squeezed out 120% of the defensive juice this roster has in them. But Kawhi Leonard is the cyborg that terrorized the East that one year (let’s not talk about it) and should be terrifying the West this season.
Since Mar. 13, he’s averaging 26 points on 56% from the field and
50% from three. He is so clinical getting to his spots every single possession and is buoyed by Harden’s ability to manipulate a defense with a few dribbles and a pick-and-roll action here. Kawhi has lost a step on defense, but he’s still one of the best at getting a stop when he truly locks in.
Boardman is back, and the West should be wary.
Apr. 10:
Minnesota Timberwolves @ Memphis Grizzlies
The Minnesota Timberwolves should feel hard done by. In their last 17 games, they’ve gone 14-3 (the Clippers have the same record in that time). In that stretch, they’ve gone from the ninth seed to the eighth seed. The West life is a tough life.
But a strong close to the season can change all. And they should have a chance to gain some momentum against a turbulent Memphis Grizzlies squad. After firing their former head coach, Taylor Jenkins, at the end of March, the Grizzlies have fallen from the fifth seed to the eighth seed. Yikes.
Things were going awry before the firing — until beating the Pistons a couple of nights ago, the team hadn’t beaten a team over .500 since Feb. 2. But even if you don’t like their moves, you cannot fire the choreographer two weeks before the big dance. Regardless, Jenkins’ dismissal and the immense talent still on the roster make the Grizzlies one of the most interesting teams in the West playoff mix. Interesting doesn’t mean good. It just means fireworks potential. Will they implode? Will they rally and go on a run? Will Ja stop with the finger guns?
Another reason to watch this game is that Ja Morant and Anthony Edwards are playing in it. The two best guard dunkers in the game. Each of them has a phenomenal defensive big backing them up, with decent role players, too. There’s high stakes, plenty to prove, and posterizer potential. That’s the NBA, baby.
Apr. 11:
Houston Rockets @ Los Angeles Lakers;
Memphis Grizzlies @ Denver Nuggets
There are no games on Apr. 12, so I’ve highlighted two to watch today.
Houston vs. Lakers seems set to be a second-round matchup. Here, we’ll have a preview (though there is a risk of players resting). They’ve played twice already this season. One game was a four-point Houston victory, the other was a six-point Lakers victory. These teams, despite vast differences in age, experience, and offensive firepower, match up closely.
The Rockets play most of their offense through their center, Alperen Sengun. He does his work in the post, nifty footwork and convincing fakes helping him get to the rim. The Lakers don’t have a starter-level center (Sorry, Jaxson Hayes). So, in their previous matchup, LeBron James guarded him for most of the game. And he did alright. Sengun only had 14 points, but he also had seven assists and nearly orchestrated the offense to a win.
The Rockets also have Jalen Green, an explosive guard scorer who dropped 33 points on the Lakers back in January. That was before the Luka trade, but the Luka trade didn’t make the Lakers’ perimeter defense any better.
It’s weird. You’d expect one of Sengun or Green to go off against the Lakers every time. But the Lakers’ experience and length make things extremely difficult on both players. It’s something to look out for in this Friday night matchup and beyond into playoff hypotheticals.
Amen Thompson needs a mention here, too. His defense is otherworldly, and he’s a freak athlete. Not freak like ‘oh that dog looks weird’, freak like ‘how the fuck is that a real thing I’m looking at?’. But that’s been well-documented. I wanted to briefly mention a signature move of his I really like.
It’s a euro-step on steroids, so maybe a hemisphere-step? Coming in from the corner (where he’s left alone since he can’t shoot), he leaps to baseline, then to near the restricted area line, then back to the rim. It’s helped him score in the clutch and might be unstoppable with the ground he covers.
The other game is between the Denver Nuggets and the Memphis Grizzlies. Like the Grizzlies, the end of the Nuggets’ season has been poor — and they also fired their head coach at the strangest of times. They’ve lost four straight and are in real danger of falling into the play-in. That’s despite Nikola Jokic averaging 45 points, 10.7 assists and 12.3 rebounds on ridiculous efficiency in his last three games (he didn’t play in one of the losses).
The fact that these Herculean efforts have gone unvictorious is scary for the Nuggets. What more can he do? Someone else must step up. During the team’s mid-season resurgence, it was Jamal Murray doing that. But he’s injured once again.
The game vs. Memphis is a huge one in a week full of huge ones. Jokic didn’t play in either of the team’s two matchups this season (one win, one loss), so we don’t have a real idea of how the Grizz will guard Jokic, but their massive frontcourt suggests they’ll do alright.
Rookie Zach Edey has the size to trouble Jokic, and Jaren Jackson Jr, one of the favorites for Defensive Player of the Year, can roam and double or help when Jokic does initially beat Edey. It’s a frountcourt matchup that will likely decide the game, and therefore potentially who ends up in the play-in or not. Huge.
Apr. 12: NO GAMES
Apr. 13:
Detroit Pistons @ Milwaukee Bucks;
Los Angeles Clippers @ Golden State Warriors;
Houston Rockets @ Denver Nuggets
Every team is playing on the last day of the NBA regular season. Fifteen games are slotted into two time slots, so there’s no tomfoolery of losing games for a perceived better playoff matchup. The above three I’ve highlighted are the most important in terms of playoff seeding.
Detroit vs. Milwaukee likely decides the East’s fifth seed. The fifth seed will play the Indiana Pacers in the first round, the sixth seed will play the New York Knicks. Detroit and Milwaukee also play on Friday night, and are only separated by a game and a half. If Milwaukee wins that Friday night matchup, they’ve likely secured the fifth seed, and this game becomes moot. But if they don’t, this game will be playoff-like.
Los Angeles Clippers vs. Golden State Warriors likely decides the fifth or sixth seed, but could also catapult the winner to the fourth seed, and sink the loser to the play-in seeds. It will be high stakes no matter how the rest of the week plays out. It will be cinema. Kawhi Leonard vs Jimmy Butler. James Harden vs. Steph Curry. Steve Kerr vs. Tyronn Lue.
Old foes with veteran rosters who all understand the gravitas of the game and know how to win such contents. Draymond Green will be his troublesome self and the Clippers heroic defense will throw everything they have at Curry. This is the No. 1 game on the NBA’s final slate.
While Houston may have locked up the two seed at this point, the Denver Nuggets will have locked nothing up, and, if they lose, are at real risk of locking themselves out of the top six. They have no easy games left (the ‘easiest’ being against a surging Sacramento squad).
This game might end up being a breeze for them if Houston decides to rest players, but this is also a Nuggets team that famously lost a pivotal late game last regular season. I pray that an inexperienced Houston squad wants a taste of playoff intensity and plays all their guys. If they do, we are all in for a treat.
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