NEW ORLEANS, LOUISIANA - MARCH 08: Trae Young #3 of the Washington Wizards drives to the basket during the first half of a game against the New Orleans Pelicans at Smoothie King Center on March 08, 2026 in New Orleans, Louisiana. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Tyler Kaufman/Getty Images) | Getty Images
The Wizards lost their eighth in a row — this time a semi-competitive that transmogrified into a New Orleans Pelicans blowout.
This game highlighted what different incentives does to teams. During the 2025 draft, the Pelicans traded this year’s first round pick in a deal to acquire Maryland center Derik Queen. New Orleans was terrible for a long stretch of the season — at times they sported the league’s worst winning percentage.
With the pick out the door, they have no reason to remain awful. And, as they’ve gotten healthier and adjusted the rotation to get minutes to better players, they’ve improved — postingt an 11-9 record over their last 20 games. Not exactly a juggernaut, but there’s at least an outline of a potentially decent team next season.
Washington has just six wins over their last 20, and they’re likely chiding themselves for winning even that much. They’ve treated games like exhibition season, sitting anyone with even the mildest of injuries, keeping healthy youngsters on tight minutes restrictions, and using what amounts to G-League lineups for long stretches of games.
This is smart. To increase their chances of being good in the future, the team needs to lose a lot now. I remind myself of these facts every game because…well…the actual basketball gets brutal to watch. One fun aspect of watching a young and rebuilding team is seeing those youngsters try hard, make mistakes, and learn. The imperative to lose games, which leads to curtailing minutes for kids who figure to be part of the rotation when the team is competitive again in the near(ish) future, which means a) we don’t get to see them as much, and (worse) b) they get fewer opportunities to learn and grow.
One other thing that intentionally losing sometimes does is cause players to play with lesser effort and mental focus. The “little things” just don’t matter as much when you know you’re going to lose. I think I see some of that in Wizards games lately, and I’ve been trying to convince myself it’s mostly coming from players who won’t be around next season.
But I’m also seeing some stuff from kids who should be around, so…yeah I’m a little concerned about it.
Thoughts & Observations
- Alex Sarr was back in the starting lineup. The offense was rusty, and his teammates kept him busy defensively.
- Last game, I wrote a bit about how bad Leaky Black was on defense. He was just as bad against New Orleans. His name shows up a lot in my notes from last night’s game.
- Lest anyone think I’m picking on Black, I have to say that Trae Young’s defense is shockingly awful. I mean, I’ve seen him play terrible defense in Atlanta. As an example, in the first quarter, he got switched onto Saddiq Bey in the post. I’d have been fine if Bey used his superior height to shoot over Young or strength to bully-ball him into the basket. But Young got out-quicked. Yikes.
- Speaking of Young, New Orleans repeatedly did the force a switch to attack Young thing, and it worked quite well for them. He’s a problem defensively the Wizards might be able to overcome with Sarr and Anthony Davis patrolling the paint — at least to the extent that opponent offensive scheming allows that to happen.
- Young is also a terrific passer, at least when he’s focused on making good passes instead of showboating. He produced eight assists, and set up teammates for several other open looks, which they missed.
- Want to see a bad defensive possession? At 6:41 of the first quarter, Zion Williamson drives on Bilal Coulibaly, who does an okay job of at least staying in contact with Williamson. Black was low man and should have been stepping up. He got there late and gave a classic “ole” effort. Tre Johnson was weakside low man and did absolutely nothing on the play.
- Throughout the night, Wizards bigs (JuJu Reese and Anthony Gill) were playing deep drop coverage in pick-and-rolls where Trey Murphy III was the ball handler. This baffled me because Murphy is a great three-point shooter. The Wizards were conceding open threes to one of the game’s better three-point shooters. Even if you’re playing drop and don’t want to switch, that big should still be at the level of the screen.
- Late in the first quarter, Sharife Cooper ran a 2-on-1 fastbreak I loved. The New Orleans defender kept giving ground, so Cooper kept the ball. When he got almost to the rim, the defender finally committed, and Cooper dropped the ball off to Will Riley for an easy bucket. I liked the patience Cooper showed — staying under control, forcing the defender to make a decision, and then giving a teammate a simple play to make.
- I think there’s some fairly low-hanging fruit that might help Jaden Hardy shoot more accurately. Even when wide-open from deep, he tends to twist a little and fade as he jumps. Better balance and a more controlled jump could boost his percentage.
- The Pelicans attacked the paint relentlessly and generated 47 free throw attempts as a result. They had 36 free throw attempts in the first half.
- With 4:20 left in the second quarter, the Wizards ran a pindown for Trae Young, which produced an open three. I liked them using Young off-ball. More please.
- Dejounte Murray was too athletic for any of the perimeter defenders the Wizards had available last night — Johnson, Young, and Bub Carrington are all too small, too weak, and too slow to guard him. The team’s best defender against a player like Murray is Coulibaly, but they had him on Williamson much of the evening.
- The third quarter contained some truly egregious defensive plays. Williamson drove on Black, who provided no resistance at the point of attack.
- On the first, Reese was low man, and Johnson was in help position at the elbow. What should have happened was Reese helping hard, and Johnson dropping into a zone to cover the weakside corner and wing. What did happen was that neither Reese nor Johnson even moved.
- On the second, it was Reese and Carrington not reacting to Williamson’s drive.
- On the third, Riley helped hard from the weakside and Black fouled. While the result wasn’t great, Riley at least played the scheme correctly,
- One other defensive possession I didn’t like — Reese jogging back in transition and arriving too late to contest a Bryce McGowens dunk.
Four Factors
Below are the four factors that decide wins and losses in basketball — shooting (efg), rebounding (offensive rebounds), ball handling (turnovers), fouling (free throws made).
The four factors are measured by:
- eFG% (effective field goal percentage, which accounts for the three-point shot)
- OREB% (offensive rebound percentage)
- TOV% (turnover percentage — turnovers divided by possessions)
- FTM/FGA (free throws made divided by field goal attempts)
| FOUR FACTORS | WIZARDS | PELICANS | LGAVG |
|---|
| eFG% | 52.7% | 56.7% | 54.3% |
| OREB% | 28.9% | 30.0% | 26.0% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 7.6% | 12.8% |
| FTM/FGA | 0.242 | 0.416 | 0.207 |
| PACE | 105 | 99.4 | |
| ORTG | 113 | 132 | 115.3 |
Stats & Metrics
PPA is my overall production metric, which credits players for things they do that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, playmaking, defending) and dings them for things that hurt (missed shots, turnovers, bad defense, fouls).
PPA is a per possession metric designed for larger data sets. In small sample sizes, the numbers can get weird. In PPA, 100 is average, higher is better and replacement level is 45. For a single game, replacement level isn’t much use, and I reiterate the caution about small samples sometimes producing weird results.
POSS is the number of possessions each player was on the floor in this game.
ORTG = offensive rating, which is points produced per individual possessions x 100. League average so far this season is listed in the Four Factors table above. Points produced is not the same as points scored. It includes the value of assists and offensive rebounds, as well as sharing credit when receiving an assist.
USG = offensive usage rate. Average is 20%. Median so far this season is 17.7%.
ORTG and USG are versions of stats created by former Wizards assistant coach Dean Oliver and modified by me. ORTG is an efficiency measure that accounts for the value of shooting, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. USG includes shooting from the floor and free throw line, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers.
+PTS = “Plus Points” is a measure of the points gained or lost by each player based on their efficiency in this game compared to league average efficiency on the same number of possessions. A player with an offensive rating (points produced per possession x 100) of 100 who uses 20 possessions would produce 20 points. If the league average efficiency is 115, the league — on average — would produced 23.0 points in the same 20 possessions. So, the player in this hypothetical would have a +PTS score of -3.0.
Players are sorted by total production in the game.
| WIZARDS | MIN | POSS | ORTG | USG | +PTS | PPA | +/- |
|---|
| Tre Johnson | 22 | 49 | 140 | 24.3% | 3.0 | 166 | -2 |
| Trae Young | 18 | 39 | 141 | 36.4% | 3.6 | 208 | 0 |
| Julian Reese | 26 | 56 | 105 | 15.0% | -0.9 | 64 | -2 |
| Will Riley | 25 | 55 | 111 | 26.2% | -0.7 | 54 | -16 |
| Bub Carrington | 23 | 51 | 121 | 15.4% | 0.4 | 54 | -8 |
| Leaky Black | 31 | 68 | 105 | 12.8% | -0.9 | 36 | -17 |
| Anthony Gill | 22 | 48 | 133 | 12.8% | 1.1 | 48 | -19 |
| Alex Sarr | 18 | 38 | 103 | 17.9% | -0.9 | 48 | -2 |
| Sharife Cooper | 10 | 21 | 118 | 27.9% | 0.2 | 64 | -4 |
| Jaden Hardy | 21 | 46 | 98 | 23.0% | -1.8 | 7 | -17 |
| Bilal Coulibaly | 24 | 52 | 54 | 19.6% | -6.2 | -105 | -13 |
| PELICANS | MIN | POSS | ORTG | USG | +PTS | PPA | +/- |
|---|
| Trey Murphy III | 29 | 63 | 160 | 23.0% | 6.4 | 270 | 11 |
| Saddiq Bey | 29 | 63 | 122 | 29.9% | 1.3 | 188 | 15 |
| Zion Williamson | 23 | 51 | 165 | 22.8% | 5.8 | 198 | 3 |
| Dejounte Murray | 24 | 52 | 133 | 25.8% | 2.3 | 190 | 15 |
| Jeremiah Fears | 24 | 53 | 110 | 32.2% | -0.9 | 133 | 5 |
| Derik Queen | 25 | 53 | 139 | 19.0% | 2.4 | 128 | 17 |
| DeAndre Jordan | 19 | 42 | 239 | 3.3% | 1.7 | 81 | 8 |
| Yves Missi | 15 | 32 | 202 | 2.3% | 0.6 | 82 | 15 |
| Bryce McGowens | 23 | 49 | 131 | 8.5% | 0.7 | 51 | 13 |
| Herbert Jones | 17 | 37 | 54 | 18.3% | -4.2 | -29 | 1 |
| Karlo Matkovic | 4 | 9 | 189 | 29.1% | 2.0 | 317 | -1 |
| Micah Peavy | 4 | 9 | 101 | 16.5% | -0.2 | -33 | -1 |
| Jordan Hawkins | 4 | 9 | 67 | 24.7% | -1.1 | -66 | -1 |
