WASHINGTON, DC - JANUARY 29: Kyle Kuzma #18 of the Milwaukee Bucks drives to the basket as Bilal Coulibaly #0 of the Washington Wizards plays defense during the game on January 29, 2026 at Capital One Arena in Washington, DC. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this Photograph, user is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. Mandatory Copyright Notice: Copyright 2026 NBAE (Photo by Stephen Gosling/NBAE via Getty Images) | NBAE via Getty Images
With a 109-99 victory over the spiraling Milwaukee Bucks, the Washington Wizards have their third two-game winning streak of the season.
This one was an offensive struggle. Not in the sense that either team played well on offense — more like what the bricklaying did to my basketball sensibilities. The teams combined to miss 55 three-point shots, shooting a combined 18-73 — “good” for 24.7%. Bilal Coulibaly missed one so badly, I rewinded several times convinced it had to have been blocked or tipped. If it was, I couldn’t find the evidence.
With their all-world star Giannis Antetokounmpo sidelined with a calf injury, the Bucks continued their drop in the standings. Giannis trade rumors are the number one topic around the NBA — so ubiquitous that the guys on
Thinking Basketball briefly touched on it.
Just before tipoff, I had a classic,
“There’s your problem!” moment when I realized the Bucks were starting three former Wizards — Ryan Rollins (who’s playing well this season), Bobby Portis (who’s been okay), and Kyle Kuzma (who’s been not much good).
The Wizards won with an atrocious 43.8% effective field goal percentage because they dominated rebounding battle (61-43 overall; 18-7 on the offensive glass) and got to the free throw line. The Wizards owned the boards despite playing a smaller lineup most of the night. In the 16 minutes Alex Sarr (17 rebounds; 7 offensive) rested, head coach Brian Keefe used a center-less lineup.
Give some credit to the opponent — Doc Rivers teams eschew pursuit of offensive rebounds in favor of getting back on defense. This approach may have had more merit in the past. Nowadays, teams In recent years, coaches (led by former Knicks coach Tom Thibodeau) have figured out a way “tag up” to pursue offensive boards without getting killed by fast breaks. Rivers has stuck to what worked for him in the past.
“Tagging up” is a system whereby offensive players immediately make physical contact with a defensive player as soon as a shot goes up. The strategy — developed by Aaron Fearnes in the Australian National Basketball League (he’s currently coaching the NCAA Charlotte 49ers) — increases the offense’s chance of getting the rebound while simultaneously matching up and creating pressure points to stymie transition opportunities. The concept has entered the NBA in recent years with the influx of international assistant (and head) coaches.
There was a lot to like from the Wizards in this one. Even accounting for a talent-deficient Bucks roster, the Wizards made life difficult for Milwaukee on the offensive end. On many possessions, the Bucks had to run multiple actions to get a shot. At times, you could see Milwaukee players rush a meh look early in the shot clock because they had a sliver of an opening.
One of the cool things in this one was that it was the youngsters making plays late to secure the win.
Thoughts & Observations
- One of my favorite defensive plays came in the second half. Coulibaly was pressuring Rollins full court and got called for a foul. Before the inbounds, Coulibaly and Rollins had some friendly-looking former teammate kind of interaction. Then when the play started, Coulibaly stepped around and in front of him and top locked — denying Rollins the ball and wrecking Milwaukee’s play and then the possession. It was excellent defense made more impressive by how casual it looked.
- A game after struggling against the massive Donovan Clingan, Sarr bounced back to control the action inside against Myles Turner and Portis. Sarr finished with career highs in offensive rebounds (7) and total rebounds (17). His previous high was 15, which he did twice — both this season.
- Kyshawn George shot poorly but played a strong overall game — 5 rebounds, 5 assists, 2 steals, a block, and just 1 turnover and 1 foul. George improving his decision-making is one of the big X factors for the team’s future.
- Jamir Watkins has a very long ways to go on the offensive end (he shot 1-7 last night), but he’s already a plus defender. He had another open court strip when pressuring the ball at midcourt.
- In the not good news category: Tre Johnson rolled his ankle when Rollins did a Bruce Bowen closeout. No word yet on how much time Johnson will miss. On the “quick return” side: he’s 19-years-old, which should dramatically accelerate his healing time. On the “it might take a while” side: the team is happy to lose games and has given guys plenty of time to recover from injuries so far. My guess is he’ll miss at least a game or two.
Four Factors
Below are the four factors that decide wins and losses in basketball — shooting (efg), rebounding (offensive rebounds), ball handling (turnovers), fouling (free throws made).
The four factors are measured by:
- eFG% (effective field goal percentage, which accounts for the three-point shot)
- OREB% (offensive rebound percentage)
- TOV% (turnover percentage — turnovers divided by possessions)
- FTM/FGA (free throws made divided by field goal attempts)
| FOUR FACTORS | BUCKS | WIZARDS | LGAVG |
|---|
| eFG% | 46.9% | 43.8% | 54.3% |
| OREB% | 14.0% | 33.3% | 26.1% |
| TOV% | 8.8% | 12.7% | 12.8% |
| FTM/FGA | 0.071 | 0.260 | 0.209 |
| PACE | 102 | 99.5 | |
| ORTG | 97 | 107 | 115.5 |
Stats & Metrics
PPA is my overall production metric, which credits players for things they do that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, playmaking, defending) and dings them for things that hurt (missed shots, turnovers, bad defense, fouls).
PPA is a per possession metric designed for larger data sets. In small sample sizes, the numbers can get weird. In PPA, 100 is average, higher is better and replacement level is 45. For a single game, replacement level isn’t much use, and I reiterate the caution about small samples sometimes producing weird results.
POSS is the number of possessions each player was on the floor in this game.
ORTG = offensive rating, which is points produced per individual possessions x 100. League average so far this season is 115.5. Points produced is not the same as points scored. It includes the value of assists and offensive rebounds, as well as sharing credit when receiving an assist.
USG = offensive usage rate. Average is 20%.
ORTG and USG are versions of stats created by former Wizards assistant coach Dean Oliver and modified by me. ORTG is an efficiency measure that accounts for the value of shooting, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. USG includes shooting from the floor and free throw line, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers.
+PTS = “Plus Points” is a measure of the points gained or lost by each player based on their efficiency in this game compared to league average efficiency on the same number of possessions. A player with an offensive rating (points produced per possession x 100) of 100 who uses 20 possessions would produce 20 points. If the league average efficiency is 114, the league — on average — would produced 22.8 points in the same 20 possessions. So, the player in this hypothetical would have a +PTS score of -2.8.
Players are sorted by total production in the game.
| WIZARDS | MIN | POSS | ORTG | USG | +PTS | PPA | +/- |
|---|
| Alex Sarr | 32 | 67 | 118 | 22.4% | 0.4 | 196 | 3 |
| Kyshawn George | 36 | 76 | 105 | 26.7% | -2.2 | 151 | 2 |
| Bilal Coulibaly | 28 | 59 | 124 | 11.9% | 0.6 | 166 | 14 |
| Bub Carrington | 29 | 61 | 118 | 20.2% | 0.3 | 156 | -2 |
| Justin Champagnie | 26 | 55 | 120 | 15.3% | 0.4 | 125 | 9 |
| Khris Middleton | 26 | 55 | 93 | 25.1% | -3.1 | 49 | 6 |
| Tre Johnson | 11 | 24 | 113 | 29.4% | -0.2 | 80 | 10 |
| Malaki Branham | 14 | 30 | 109 | 18.7% | -0.4 | 64 | -2 |
| Will Riley | 18 | 39 | 105 | 14.0% | -0.6 | 29 | 3 |
| Jamir Watkins | 21 | 44 | 57 | 16.0% | -4.1 | -4 | 7 |
| BUCKS | MIN | POSS | ORTG | USG | +PTS | PPA | +/- |
|---|
| Ryan Rollins | 26 | 56 | 133 | 24.5% | 2.4 | 285 | -3 |
| Myles Turner | 39 | 84 | 112 | 21.0% | -0.7 | 137 | 2 |
| Bobby Portis | 36 | 77 | 111 | 20.4% | -0.7 | 108 | -21 |
| Pete Nance | 20 | 43 | 134 | 20.8% | 1.7 | 192 | -1 |
| Kyle Kuzma | 35 | 74 | 94 | 28.7% | -4.5 | 54 | -8 |
| Gary Trent Jr. | 25 | 53 | 56 | 12.3% | -3.9 | -5 | -1 |
| Andre Jackson Jr. | 3 | 7 | 0 | 11.0% | -0.9 | -228 | 1 |
| AJ Green | 37 | 79 | 48 | 9.2% | -4.9 | -53 | -10 |
| Cole Anthony | 18 | 37 | 44 | 27.4% | -7.3 | -149 | -9 |
COULIBALYYYYYYY!!!!! 
