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[Washington Wizards]

Wizards Stave Off Magic Comeback, Earn 10th Win

Halfway through the third quarter, it looked like the Wizards would coast to a blowout win over the Orlando Magic. They were up 26, the Magic kept bricking shots, fouling, and throwing the ball away, and the Wizards were fast-breaking them into oblivion. Then Magic coach Jamahl Mosley benched his starters and the Orlando bench mob staged an epic — though ultimately futile — comeback.

Over about 12 minutes of game time (including portions of the third and fourth quarters), Orlando cut Washington’s 26-point advantage to just two. By then, Wizards coach Brian Keefe had reinserted starters to stem the tide.

Whether it was the starters — CJ McCollum hit several shots in the closing minutes to help secure the win — or just Orlando’s bench mob running out of gas, the comeback stopped there. The Wizards closed out their 10th victory of the season, 120-112.

Washington’s starters (plus Justin Champagnie) dominated the Magic. Alex Sarr led the way at both ends, scoring an efficient 23 points in 31 minutes and blocking five shots. He deterred several more attempts when Magic players cut short drives or passed rather than attempt a shot over the Wizards’ big man.

Bilal Coulibaly was a defensive wrecking ball. He harassed Orlando star Paolo Banchero into four turnovers and offensive rating of just 97 (league average is 115.8 so far this season).

McCollum continued what Magic broadcasters said was a career-long pattern of torching Orlando.He finished with 27 points on 19 shots to go with five assists and six rebounds.

Thoughts & Observations​

• Coulibaly stripped Banchero on the game’s opening possession and took the ball the other way for an easy bucket. It was a pattern that repeated throughout the game. His hands on defense are excellent — he had at least three strips. Opponents think they have the ball secured only for him to reach around and punch it loose. His awareness is also superb — opponents cannot make crosscourt passes when he’s in the vicinity.
• One offensive improvement from Coulibaly: he’s gotten better at closing space when he has the ball and a defender sags off him to concede the three. Instead of just pulling the trigger on an iffy shot, he’s using that space to build momentum and drive by his man. This was a tactic Ben Simmons used back when he was good.
• For the game, the Wizards were (slightly) outshot, and out-rebounded. They won because Orlando (uncharacteristically) committed a bunch of turnovers and (characteristically) committed a load of fouls. The Wizards hit 31-33 from the free throw line while the Magic — typically good at getting to the line — made just 16-24.
• Two plays — one for each team — exemplify one of the problems with NBA officiating. It’s not an issue of consistency — the refs make the calls the same way game after game for stars and non-stars alike. Play One was around 1:06 in the first quarter: Marvin Bagley III drove. The defender stayed with him and was in good position. Bagley lowered his shoulder and plowed into him, knocking him back and creating space. Then he went up and scored. On Play Two (around 9:08 in the second quarter), Desmond Bane knocked Bub Carrington down with a lowered shoulder before rising up to hit a three. There was no call from the refs on either play. Both of them should have been whistled as offensive fouls, would have been in any other league or level of play — and would have been in any previous NBA era.
• The Wizards had some trouble defending a clever Orlando action. The Magic would send a big man to screen up top. It looked each time like the start of a typical pick-and-roll ball screen except the big would set the pick off ball and the guard would then cut into the lane. The Wizards typically don’t switch off-ball screens. The action produced several open cutters, as well wide-open looks from three-point range. With sloppy passing and poor shooting, the Magic largely failed to capitalize. One successful example came early in the first quarter — McCollum got back screened, Khris Middleton stepped into the lane to help, and Orlando’s da Silva hit the wide open corner three.
• Between Coulibaly and Sarr, the Wizards might have building blocks for a terrific defense in the future. Coulibaly has the agility and length to effectively defend everyone from skittery guards to tradition power forwards. His length and awareness make him a menace in passing lanes. His ability to guard up should improve as he gets stronger. With Sarr, the Wizards have a potentially elite rim protector, who can also competently defend on the perimeter when switched onto a smaller player.
• I continue to think the Wizards should promote Champagnie into the starting lineup — at least until Kyshawn George returns from his strained hip flexor.
• On the first night of a back-to-back, it looked like Keefe was trying to let the youngsters finish off this game. They couldn’t hold the lead, and he was forced to go back to the starters.
• Orlando’s Jase Richardson had a good score in YODA (my stat-driven draft prospect evaluation tool), and every time I see him play, I like what I see. He needs to get stronger (as is the norm for every young player), but he makes good decisions, has excellent skills, and plays with craft. He scored a career-high 20 points in just 26 minutes last night, and was a big reason the Magic mounted a comeback.

Four Factors​

Below are the four factors that decide wins and losses in basketball — shooting (efg), rebounding (offensive rebounds), ball handling (turnovers), fouling (free throws made).

The four factors are measured by:

• eFG% (effective field goal percentage, which accounts for the three-point shot)
• OREB% (offensive rebound percentage)
• TOV% (turnover percentage — turnovers divided by possessions)
• FTM/FGA (free throws made divided by field goal attempts)

FOUR FACTORS	MAGIC	WIZARDS	LGAVG
eFG%	52.2%	51.7%	54.4%
OREB%	27.7%	23.9%	26.1%
TOV%	18.2%	13.4%	12.8%
FTM/FGA	0.174	0.360	0.215
PACE	104	100.0
ORTG	107	115	115.8

Stats & Metrics​

PPA is my overall production metric, which credits players for things they do that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, playmaking, defending) and dings them for things that hurt (missed shots, turnovers, bad defense, fouls).

PPA is a per possession metric designed for larger data sets. In small sample sizes, the numbers can get weird. In PPA, 100 is average, higher is better and replacement level is 45. For a single game, replacement level isn’t much use, and I reiterate the caution about small samples sometimes producing weird results.

POSS is the number of possessions each player was on the floor in this game.

ORTG = offensive rating, which is points produced per individual possessions x 100. League average so far this season is 115.1. Points produced is not the same as points scored. It includes the value of assists and offensive rebounds, as well as sharing credit when receiving an assist.

USG = offensive usage rate. Average is 20%.

ORTG and USG are versions of stats created by former Wizards assistant coach Dean Oliver and modified by me. ORTG is an efficiency measure that accounts for the value of shooting, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. USG includes shooting from the floor and free throw line, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers.

+PTS = “Plus Points” is a measure of the points gained or lost by each player based on their efficiency in this game compared to league average efficiency on the same number of possessions. A player with an offensive rating (points produced per possession x 100) of 100 who uses 20 possessions would produce 20 points. If the league average efficiency is 114, the league — on average — would produced 22.8 points in the same 20 possessions. So, the player in this hypothetical would have a +PTS score of -2.8.

Players are sorted by total production in the game.

WIZARDS	MIN	POSS	ORTG	USG	+PTS	PPA	+/-
Alex Sarr	31	67	134	23.2%	2.8	223	23
CJ McCollum	38	83	130	23.2%	2.7	173	15
Bilal Coulibaly	34	74	125	16.8%	1.1	188	23
Justin Champagnie	22	48	188	17.7%	6.2	245	10
Marvin Bagley III	17	37	109	27.6%	-0.7	102	-15
Khris Middleton	23	49	97	28.4%	-2.6	77	9
Bub Carrington	31	67	77	13.2%	-3.4	48	-9
Tre Johnson	22	49	84	19.6%	-3.0	9	16
Malaki Branham	3	6	0.0%	0.0	-49	-8
AJ Johnson	6	14	0	5.6%	-0.9	-97	-13
Will Riley	12	27	61	18.0%	-2.6	-97	-11

MAGIC	MIN	POSS	ORTG	USG	+PTS	PPA	+/-
Jase Richardson	26	56	142	22.8%	3.3	182	17
Jonathan Isaac	12	26	161	21.3%	2.4	326	12
Tristan da Silva	22	48	123	18.6%	0.6	150	-27
Noah Penda	27	58	101	16.0%	-1.3	119	8
Goga Bitadze	20	44	160	13.0%	2.6	91	-7
Jett Howard	16	34	114	31.3%	-0.2	93	23
Tyus Jones	28	60	85	10.4%	-1.9	39	11
Desmond Bane	24	51	109	25.0%	-0.9	44	-12
Paolo Banchero	25	53	97	26.4%	-2.7	18	-22
Wendell Carter Jr.	20	43	63	14.6%	-3.3	-35	-19
Anthony Black	21	45	57	26.8%	-7.0	-110	-19
Jamal Cain	2	5	0.0%	0.0	0	-5

Source: https://www.bulletsforever.com/wash...izards-stave-off-magic-comeback-earn-10th-win

 

[Washington Wizards]

The Wizards Podcast: Wizards acquire Trae Young

The Washington Wizards acquired Trae Young from the Atlanta Hawks in exchange for CJ McCollum and Corey Kispert.

Our Greg Finberg broke down the trade, what it means for the Wizards and their young core, a possible extension for Young in Washington, and much more. Enjoy!

View Link

You can watch on YouTube as well!

Source: https://www.bulletsforever.com/wash...he-wizards-podcast-wizards-acquire-trae-young

 

[Washington Wizards]

The pros and cons of Trae Young coming to the Wizards

So, Trae Young is the newest member of the Washington Wizards. This piece started life as a column called “To Trae Trade, Or Not To Trae Trade” debating the pros and cons of going through with the trade, and then about 45 minutes after I finished writing it he was traded.

Young was a distressed asset in Atlanta, but he is off to start a new basketball life here in DC. What are the pros and cons of the trade, and was it ultimately a good move?

The Pros​

Young is a brilliant offensive player and one of the best playmakers in recent memory. Young’s 9.81 assists per game average over his entire career is third all-time behind arguably the greatest point guard ever in Magic Johnson and arguably the greatest stat-padder ever in John Stockton.

His 25.18 points per game career scoring average places him at 13th all-time, sandwiched between Oscar Robertson and Damian Lillard. Pretty good company there.

Young also has experience playing deep into the playoffs, having led the Hawks to the 2021 Eastern Conference Finals (and nearly to the NBA Finals, thanks to a Giannis Antetokounmpo injury). Bringing in Young would mean the Wizards are at least starting to consider questions like “What if we tried to put a good basketball team out there?”

The Wizards also have the salary flexibility to take Young as a half- to one-and-a-half-year rental. Young is owed $46 million for the 2025-26 season and a $49 million player option in 2026-27. If Young and the Wizards aren’t panning out, then Washington could trade him next February to get something in return, assuming he picks up his player option (He almost definitely will). Or the Wizards could just enjoy the additional cap flexibility.

The Cons​

Let’s start with the obvious: Young’s defense is indefensible. Every cliche used to describe poor defense — Trae’s a layup line, Trae’s a turnstile, Trae’s a traffic cone — fails to properly capture the porosity of the NBA’s single worst defensive player.

Young’s gaudy numbers also have a tendency to mask some offensive inefficiencies. Ironically, given that Young both has the reputation as a sharpshooter and he literally goes by “Trae,” he is not a particularly good three-point shooter, cashing just 35% of his career attempts. He is also the NBA’s career leader in turnovers per game at 4.2.

Finally, as SB Nation’s Ricky O’Donnell wrote last night, Young is a very on-the-ball kind of player and will not be someone who can do much off of it. Basically, the Wizards will just be a projection of his basketball personality. If he works out well with Bilal Coulibaly, Tre Johnson, Kyshawn George and Alex Sarr, great. If not, Wizards fans will be frustrated with him sooner than later.

The Verdict​

Young is the exact type of trade that the Wizards should have been after — he was a distressed enough asset that they are likely to acquire draft capital alongside him, yet he is a good enough player that the potential reward of the reclamation project significantly raises the Wizards’ long-term ceiling. And if it doesn’t work out, he’s only on the books through next season.

Also, Young is injured this season, so don’t be too worried about the Wizards giving up their Top-8 protected pick in 2026 to the New York Knicks. Great move.

Source: https://www.bulletsforever.com/wash...shington-wizards-nba-trade-pros-cons-analysis

 

[Washington Wizards]

Wizards vs. Pelicans preview: Washington hosts New Orleans on Friday

The Washington Wizards host the New Orleans Pelicans on Friday. Let’s get to the preview.

Game info​

When: Friday, Jan, 9 at 7 p.m. ET

Where: Capital One Arena, Washington

How to watch: Monumental Sports Network

Injuries: For the Wizards, Kyshawn George (hip), Cam Whitmore (shoulder) annd Trae Young (just got traded to D.C.) are out.

For the Pelicans, Saddiq Bey (hip), Jose Alvarado (oblique) and Dejounte Murray (Achilles) are out. Herbert Jones is doubtful and Trey Murphy is questionable.

What to watch for​

The Wizards will host the Pelicans and welcome back Jordan Poole who spent a season and a half in Washington. This season, he is averaging 16.1 points per game off the bench for the Pelicans who are 8-31 this season and are on a six game losing streak.

While the Wizards lost their last game to the 76ers yesterday, optimism is high. Trae Young should be on the bench tomorrow, though he will not play. The crowd should be pretty excited tomorrow night for a team that has been improving as of late!

Source: https://www.bulletsforever.com/wash...wizards-new-orleans-pelicans-nba-game-preview

 

[Washington Wizards]

Trae Young to wear No. 3 with Wizards

Trae Young will wear No. 3 with the Washington Wizards, according to a picture he posted Friday to his X account.

It’s official #TRA3 @WashWizards pic.twitter.com/Aikewfkwjc

— Trae Young (@TheTraeYoung) January 9, 2026

The number was last worn by CJ McCollum, who was sent to the Atlanta Hawks alongside Corey Kispert as part of a trade that became official on Friday.

“We are excited to welcome Trae Young to the Washington Wizards,” Wizards General Manager Will Dawkins said in a statement released Friday. “It is a rare opportunity to acquire a player of Trae’s skill, accomplishments, and age. Trae plays an exciting brand of basketball and brings a level of confidence and competitiveness that has set him apart in this league.”

Trae Young will wear No. 3 with the Wizards pic.twitter.com/urFn3tRjz5

— Greg Finberg (@GregFinberg) January 9, 2026

For those on jersey retirement watch: It’s worth noting that while the Wizards have not allowed any player to wear John Wall’s No. 2 jersey since his departure in 2020, two players — McCollum and now Young — have worn Bradley Beal’s No. 3 jersey since his departure in 2023.

The Wizards will hold an introductory press conference with Young and Dawkins at 6 p.m. tonight before Washington faces the New Orleans Pelicans at 7 p.m. at Capital One Arena.

Young is listed as out for tonight’s game with a right quad contusion.

Source: https://www.bulletsforever.com/washington-wizards-news/67396/trae-young-to-wear-no-3-with-wizards

 

[Washington Wizards]

Wizards vs. Pelicans final score: Washington loses 128-107

The Washington Wizards lost to the New Orleans Pelicans 128-107 on Friday night.

The Wizards allowed the Pelicans to shoot 53.1 percent from the field, which allowed them to prevail in the game. Trey Murphy, III led the Pelicans with 35 points on 13-of-24 shooting. for the Wizards, Kywhawn George and Tristan Vukcevic co-led with 15 points.

The Wizards were also out-rebounded 51-41 in the loss tonight.

The Wizards’ next game is on Sunday when they go on a western road trip and play the Phoenix Suns. Tip off is at 8 p.m. ET. See you then.

Source: https://www.bulletsforever.com/wash...n-wizards-new-orleans-pelicans-nba-game-recap

 

[Washington Wizards]

SB Nation Reacts: Most Wizards fans believe that their recent success will keep them out of the bottom 5

Thank you all for submitting your responses to this week’s SB Nation Reacts survey. Here are the results from our Wizards based one.

We asked you back on Tuesday whether the team’s recent winning ways (since Christmas 2025) could keep Washington out of the bottom five in the NBA standings for the 2025-26 season. Sixty percent of you believe that that will be the case.

Here is our result from this week’s SBN Reacts survey. pic.twitter.com/cIGuedsNkW

— Bullets Forever (@BulletsForever) January 9, 2026

As of games played through Thursday, Jan. 8, Washington had the fourth worst record in the NBA in the 2025-26 season, which gives them a 100 percent chance of keeping their 2026 first round pick because it is Top 8 protected. The worst that the fourth worst NBA team could pick is No. 8. If the Wizards were the fifth worst team, there is a 0.6 percent chance that they will finish with the No. 9 pick which would then go to the New York Knicks. And if they are sixth worst, the chances of Washington getting the No. 9 or No. 10 pick go up to 3.9 percent. If the Wizards are the seventh worst, they have about a 14.2 percent chance of getting the No. 9 pick or lower. And finally, if the Wizards are the eighth worst team in the NBA, they have a 39.3 percent chance of getting the No. 9 pick or lower.

This survey question came out at interesting time, when the Wizards were named as a potential suitor for then-Atlanta Hawks guard Trae Young, and then it quickly escalated to him getting traded to Washington just yesterday. But since Young is nursing minor injuries, there isn’t too much to worry about him leading the Wizards to a 2021 Russell Westbrook-like stretch where Washington makes a big run in the standings.

Let us know your thoughts below about where you think the Wizards will fall in the standings after this regular season.

Source: https://www.bulletsforever.com/comm...nt-success-will-keep-them-out-of-the-bottom-5

 

[Washington Wizards]

Wizards at Suns preview: Washington begins west coast road trip in Phoenix

The Washington Wizards play the Phoenix Suns on Sunday night. Let’s get to the preview.

Game info​

When: Sunday, Jan. 11 at 8 p.m. ET

Where: Mortgage Matchup Center, Phoenix

How to watch: Monumental Sports Network

Injuries: For the Wizards, Cam Whitmore (shoulder) and Trae Young (quadriceps) are out.

For the Suns, Jalen Green (hamstring) and Jamaree Bouyea (concussion) are out.

What to watch for​

After welcoming Trae Young to D.C. and losing to the New Orleans Pelicans on Friday night, the Wizards now head on a four game west coast road trip. It will be a good week and a half before they return home.

The Suns are currently 23-15 this season and have won four of their last five games. They also played the Wizards not too long ago and won 115-101 back on Dec. 29. We’ll see if Washington can surprise Phoenix tomorrow night for this next stretch of games when we’ll be burning the midnight oil.

Source: https://www.bulletsforever.com/wash...hington-wizards-phoenix-suns-nba-game-preview

 

[Washington Wizards]

If You Blinked, You Missed Little: Wizards-Pelicans Was a Grind

If you found your eyes glazing over and your thoughts wandering to the Stranger Things finale during last nights Pelicans at Wizards matchup, join the crowd. These are two of the worst teams in basketball — the Wizards intentionally, the Pelicans by accident — and they spent much of the night demonstrating why.

The teams combined for 36 turnovers (19 by the Wizards) and probably another dozen bad passes that didn’t become turnovers by sheer luck. New Orleans’ second half offensive surge was more due to Washington’s defensive mishaps. It’s fair to say that in this game, the less incompetent team won.

It was an inauspicious beginning to the Trae Young Era, who watched in street clothes from the bench in his first game as a member of the Washington Wizards franchise. The Monumental broadcast was in peak educational form, informing viewers of Young’s absolutely amazing, superlative, colossal leadership skills, and cited things like working on special handshakes with teammates, sitting in the middle of the bench instead of the end, combing his hair, and wearing a beige suit.

I may have made the last two up — I was switching back and forth between the Pelicans and Wizards feeds throughout the game. New Orleans analyst Antonio Daniels is still very good, but Joel Meyers has lost a step or three on the play-by-play.

Both Meyers and Daniels mispronounced Tristan Vukcevich’s name — it’s not VOOK-then a long pause-SEVich, it’s Vooksevich kinda run all together. Like how the Wizards’ public address announcer said the name at least a dozen times during last night’s game. Meyers also misidentified players several times and got names wrong a few more.

It was a rough night to watch.

With CJ McCollum and Corey Kispert departed and Young not ready to play, the Wizards returned to tank mode. Last night, they replaced Marvin Bagley III — who’d been playing well — with Vukcevic, who has not. Somewhat amusingly, it was the starters who contributed most to the tank. The Wizards were +10 in Vukcevic’s minutes.

The Pelicans got big output from their starting front court.

• Trey Murhpy III scored 35 points on 24 shots to go with 8 rebounds, 4 assists, and 4 steals.
• Zion Williamson scored 31 points on 12-14 shooting. The Wizards could do nothing to contend with his size and strength.
• Rookie Derik Queen posted the second triple-double of his career — 14 points, 16 rebounds, 12 assists.

Thougths & Observations​

• Kyshawn George returned to action after missing a few games with a strained hip flexor. He shot decently but committed three turnovers and four fouls in 24 minutes.
• As I watched the game, it kinda felt like Khris Middleton was having a quiet but decent performance. I remembered the made shots and the assist. Then I looked at the stat sheet and realized I’d memory-holed the misses and turnovers.
• Alex Sarr was ineffective on both ends — solidly outplayed by whoever was in the middle for New Orleans. The game underscored some areas where the 20-year-old will need to progress — maintaining mental focus and getting stronger.
• In the “Weird Comments from Broadcasters” category, there was Meyers noting in the second half that Tre Johnson had made 2-5 from three-point range, “…but I really like his stroke…” as if 2-5 (40%) was somehow bad.
• The Wizards tried to deploy Coulibaly on Williamson. He’s been able to shut down or chip away at the efficiency of bigger and smaller players alike, but Williamson has a unique blend of speed and power. Once Williamson decided to attack (about 7 minutes into the game), he scored at will. At one point in the first quarter, he had a 9-0 run on the Wizards.
• Despite blowing a few layups in the first half, Justin Champagnie played well. Again. He had 12 points, 9 rebounds, 4 assists. His night included three third-quarter dunks.
• By the numbers, AJ Johnson had his best game of the season — 6 points, 6 rebounds. I wouldn’t make too big a deal of it — the rebounds were a lot about the ball just bouncing his way.
• Malaki Branham hit a couple threes.
• Former Wizards great Jordan Poole played 12 minutes and got booed every time he touched the ball. The boos didn’t make much sense to me, but the full Poole experience was on display — strange decisions, bizarre shots (and he took only two!), three turnovers, and four fouls. How bad has Poole been for New Orleans? On the Pelicans’ broadcast, Daniels praised Poole for getting out of the way so Williamson would have room to drive.
• At one point in the third quarter, Sarr drove into the lane, spun on his left shoulder and hit a nifty jump hook. On the Pelicans broadcast, Daniels pointed out that Sarr used that exact move in pre-game warmup work. He said many players do different things in warmups than they do in games, but that Sarr’s pre-game routine focuses on the shots he uses in the game.

Four Factors​

Below are the four factors that decide wins and losses in basketball — shooting (efg), rebounding (offensive rebounds), ball handling (turnovers), fouling (free throws made).

The four factors are measured by:

• eFG% (effective field goal percentage, which accounts for the three-point shot)
• OREB% (offensive rebound percentage)
• TOV% (turnover percentage — turnovers divided by possessions)
• FTM/FGA (free throws made divided by field goal attempts)

FOUR FACTORS	PELICANS	WIZARDS	LGAVG
eFG%	59.5%	48.9%	54.4%
OREB%	25.6%	21.2%	26.2%
TOV%	15.6%	17.4%	12.8%
FTM/FGA	0.158	0.253	0.213
PACE	109	99.8
ORTG	117	98	115.7

Stats & Metrics​

PPA is my overall production metric, which credits players for things they do that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, playmaking, defending) and dings them for things that hurt (missed shots, turnovers, bad defense, fouls).

PPA is a per possession metric designed for larger data sets. In small sample sizes, the numbers can get weird. In PPA, 100 is average, higher is better and replacement level is 45. For a single game, replacement level isn’t much use, and I reiterate the caution about small samples sometimes producing weird results.

POSS is the number of possessions each player was on the floor in this game.

ORTG = offensive rating, which is points produced per individual possessions x 100. League average so far this season is 115.1. Points produced is not the same as points scored. It includes the value of assists and offensive rebounds, as well as sharing credit when receiving an assist.

USG = offensive usage rate. Average is 20%.

ORTG and USG are versions of stats created by former Wizards assistant coach Dean Oliver and modified by me. ORTG is an efficiency measure that accounts for the value of shooting, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. USG includes shooting from the floor and free throw line, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers.

+PTS = “Plus Points” is a measure of the points gained or lost by each player based on their efficiency in this game compared to league average efficiency on the same number of possessions. A player with an offensive rating (points produced per possession x 100) of 100 who uses 20 possessions would produce 20 points. If the league average efficiency is 114, the league — on average — would produced 22.8 points in the same 20 possessions. So, the player in this hypothetical would have a +PTS score of -2.8.

Players are sorted by total production in the game.

WIZARDS	MIN	POSS	ORTG	USG	+PTS	PPA	+/-
Malaki Branham	24	54	175	10.4%	3.3	183	14
Justin Champagnie	22	49	121	22.1%	0.6	148	-5
Tre Johnson	25	57	117	16.8%	0.1	93	-29
Bub Carrington	29	65	100	16.2%	-1.6	73	-1
AJ Johnson	16	36	99	17.5%	-1.0	113	3
Kyshawn George	24	54	98	25.9%	-2.5	69	-15
Tristan Vukcevich	23	52	85	35.1%	-5.5	32	10
Bilal Coulibaly	30	67	90	15.3%	-2.7	7	-26
Alex Sarr	25	57	87	27.9%	-4.6	-21	-31
Khris Middleton	21	48	47	15.9%	-5.2	-68	-24
Anthony Gill	3	6	0.0%	0.0	0	-1

PELICANS	MIN	POSS	ORTG	USG	+PTS	PPA	+/-
Trey Murphy III	36	82	143	26.2%	5.8	339	32
Zion Williamson	29	66	154	27.1%	6.8	270	22
Derik Queen	35	79	113	24.2%	-0.6	158	18
Jeremiah Fears	32	73	105	26.5%	-2.0	150	20
Jordan Hawkins	20	46	108	13.7%	-0.5	122	-2
Yves Missis	13	29	91	19.5%	-1.4	79	3
Karlo Matkovic	5	12	124	14.3%	0.1	154	-4
Micah Peavy	28	63	108	11.1%	-0.5	2	5
Bryce McGowens	29	65	99	8.7%	-1.0	-15	18
Jordan Poole	12	27	13	17.9%	-4.9	-331	-6
Trey Alexander	2	4	0.0%	0.0	0	-1

Source: https://www.bulletsforever.com/wash...ou-missed-little-wizards-pelicans-was-a-grind

 

[Washington Wizards]

Wizards at Suns final score: Washington falls, 112-93

In the first contest of a four-game road trip, the Washington Wizards lost on Sunday to the Phoenix Suns, 112-93.

Alex Sarr scored nine points and added five rebounds in the opening frame as the Wizards trailed 32-28.

With Trae Young still sidelined with a quad and MCL injury, Washington’s lack of a point guard again showed with 11 first-half turnovers, many of them unforced.

Sarr’s production continued into the second frame, this time on the defensive end. He blocked Devin Booker twice in as many possessions, the second swat springing Bilal Coulibaly on the fastbreak for an easy dunk.

Phoenix led 65-50 at halftime behind 13 points from Booker and 18 team assists.

It was more of the same in the second half. Sarr added a few buckets and continued his strong showing on the glass, while the Suns dominated nearly every aspect of the contest to grow a 29-point advantage entering the final quarter.

Tre Johnson was another bright spot for the Wizards in an otherwise lackluster performance. The rookie drilled shots from 3-point range, mid-range and with his floater game en route to 19 points on an efficient 8-for-15 shooting. It marked his 13th game scoring in double figures in his last 14 appearances.

Despite Sarr’s and Johnson’s standout showings, Phoenix continued its dominance in the fourth frame to earn a 112-93 victory.

Sarr finished with 19 points and matched a career high with 15 rebounds. Coulibaly added 12 points as the Wizards fell to 10-28.

Source: https://www.bulletsforever.com/wash...s-at-suns-final-score-washington-falls-112-93

 

[Washington Wizards]

Three Quarters of a Blowout: Suns Dominate, Wizards Dress It Up Late

For three quarters, the Phoenix Suns administered lessons on playing hard as a cohesive unit, at the end of which the Washington Wizards trailed by 29 points. Then the Suns slacked off a bit and the Wizards trimmed the final margin to a semi-respectable 19.

For a second straight game, the Wizards offense was a disorganized mess. They ran up and down the floor, attempted nutty passes with little chance for success, and flung the ball at the rim whenever the urge struck — regardless of normally considered factors such as whether the team had run an offensive action, the relative position of defenders, and the relative openness of teammates.

It was a fascinating contrast: the Suns routinely screening for teammates, making hard and timely cuts, and moving the ball to open teammates — using coordinated teamwork to get good shots, while the Wizards seemed to be playing games of one-on-three.

This is not to let the team’s defense off the hook. The final numbers (a 110 defensive rating — 5.5 points better than league average) might lead an observer to believe the Wizards defense was pretty good. Don’t be fooled. Through three quarters, the defensive rating was 123.

With the game out of reach, the Suns took their foot off the proverbial gas pedal and the Wizards had a 64 defensive rating. That result was very much a case of Phoenix missing open looks and throwing the ball away than it was Washington affirmatively playing well.

A few examples from the numbers? So glad you asked. Through three quarters, the Suns had six turnovers. In the fourth quarter, they committed seven. For the game, Phoenix shot 17-52 — just 32.7% — from three-point range. In the first three quarters, it was 16-41 (39.0%). With a little math, we can see they shot just 1-11 from deep in the final period.

Thoughts & Observations​

• Washington’s defensive plan was to load up on Suns star Devin Booker. Bilal Coulibaly and help defenders limited Booker to 5-14 shooting and left other Suns open and wide-open shots. Booker had a personal best six first-quarter assists, and finished the game with eight.
• During a stoppage at the 8:13 mark of the first quarter, Phoenix analyst Eddie Johnson said, “It’s pretty obvious the Suns will get whatever they want on offense. The key is not settling for bad shots.”
• A truly rare event occurred during last night’s game: Dillon Brooks drove into the lane and “created space” by ramming his forearm into Khris Middleton and shoving him back. It was (properly) called an offensive foul.
• Brooks, by the way, has very little offensive game when he drives if refs don’t let him commit offensive fouls with that off arm. He was unable to get past any of Washington’s perimeter defenders (including Middleton). I wasn’t entirely sure getting past a defender was even a goal. I guess, why would it be if he can just dribble into the lane, shove a defender out of his way, and then take a shot?
• In my notebook, I had several entries with some combination of “Kyshawn George” and “sloppy.” He had five first-half turnovers, and they were all either sloppy passes (risky, pointless, inaccurate) or poor ball security. He needs to learn to value possessions.
• By the way, the Suns had four turnovers in the first half.
• Phoenix’s Ryan Dunn had a highlight reel put-back dunk because when the shot went up, Tre Johnson and Will Riley watched the ball in flight instead of blocking out.
• Bub Carrington keeps throwing lobs that make no sense. He’s surprising teammates who (correctly) believe they’re well defended, and the passes themselves are off target.
• While the above note is about Carrington, in fairness he’s not the only Wizards player tossing up nonsensical lob attempts. Alley-oops are cool and everything, but perhaps the team could benefit by focusing on making plays that increase the team’s odds of scoring.
• Another notebook entry: “Kyshawn looks thoroughly overwhelmed. Tried to pressure Grayson Allen, who just drove by him. Got ripped by Allen.”
• For a couple minutes in the second quarter, the Wizards played some real defense on Booker.
  • 3:14 — Coulibaly WOW block on Booker
  • 2:14 — Alex Sarr got switched onto Booker, who drove. Sarr made an impressive recovery block
  • 1:46 — Sarr ended up on Booker again. Booker drove, pump faked under the basket, and then got his shot swallowed by Sarr.
• I was fairly impressed with Booker’s response to Washington’s defensive attention. He kept making the right passes. While he didn’t always get the assist, he empowered his teammates to make plays.
• Sarr was good in the losing effort — 19 points, 15 rebounds, 3 blocks. While his 105 offensive rating was more than 10 points below league average, it was 15 points better than the combined offensive rating of his teammates last night.
• Weird stat line of the night: Suns guard Collin Gillespie had a 92 PPA while shooting 0-6 from the floor. He did it with six rebounds, five assists, four steals and zero turnovers.

Four Factors​

Below are the four factors that decide wins and losses in basketball — shooting (efg), rebounding (offensive rebounds), ball handling (turnovers), fouling (free throws made).

The four factors are measured by:

• eFG% (effective field goal percentage, which accounts for the three-point shot)
• OREB% (offensive rebound percentage)
• TOV% (turnover percentage — turnovers divided by possessions)
• FTM/FGA (free throws made divided by field goal attempts)

FOUR FACTORS	WIZARDS	SUNS	LGAVG
eFG%	43.6%	51.1%	54.3%
OREB%	25.0%	28.8%	26.2%
TOV%	21.7%	13.8%	12.8%
FTM/FGA	0.209	0.158	0.212
PACE	101	99.8
ORTG	92	110	115.6

Stats & Metrics​

PPA is my overall production metric, which credits players for things they do that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, playmaking, defending) and dings them for things that hurt (missed shots, turnovers, bad defense, fouls).

PPA is a per possession metric designed for larger data sets. In small sample sizes, the numbers can get weird. In PPA, 100 is average, higher is better and replacement level is 45. For a single game, replacement level isn’t much use, and I reiterate the caution about small samples sometimes producing weird results.

POSS is the number of possessions each player was on the floor in this game.

ORTG = offensive rating, which is points produced per individual possessions x 100. League average so far this season is 115.1. Points produced is not the same as points scored. It includes the value of assists and offensive rebounds, as well as sharing credit when receiving an assist.

USG = offensive usage rate. Average is 20%.

ORTG and USG are versions of stats created by former Wizards assistant coach Dean Oliver and modified by me. ORTG is an efficiency measure that accounts for the value of shooting, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers. USG includes shooting from the floor and free throw line, offensive rebounds, assists and turnovers.

+PTS = “Plus Points” is a measure of the points gained or lost by each player based on their efficiency in this game compared to league average efficiency on the same number of possessions. A player with an offensive rating (points produced per possession x 100) of 100 who uses 20 possessions would produce 20 points. If the league average efficiency is 114, the league — on average — would produced 22.8 points in the same 20 possessions. So, the player in this hypothetical would have a +PTS score of -2.8.

Players are sorted by total production in the game.

WIZARDS	MIN	POSS	ORTG	USG	+PTS	PPA	+/-
Bub Carrington	32	68	156	10.6%	2.9	145	-17
Alex Sarr	28	59	105	26.7%	-1.7	158	-10
Tre Johnson	30	64	117	21.7%	0.1	125	-16
Bilal Coulibaly	28	60	121	14.4%	0.5	111	-13
Will Riley	19	41	128	19.6%	1.0	154	-15
Justin Champagnie	21	45	112	15.0%	-0.2	95	-18
Marvin Bagley III	16	34	69	21.2%	-3.3	17	-16
Khris Middleton	18	39	54	24.0%	-5.7	-120	-5
AJ Johnson	10	21	17	33.0%	-6.7	-327	0
Kyshawn George	26	56	42	25.6%	-10.4	-157	-1
Tristan Vukcevich	4	9	113	33.0%	-0.1	209	7
Malaki Branham	4	9	0.0%	0.0	136	7
Anthony Gill	1	2	0.0%	0.0	0	2

SUNS	MIN	POSS	ORTG	USG	+PTS	PPA	+/-
Royce O’Neale	25	54	142	22.5%	3.1	299	18
Mark Williams	22	47	186	12.7%	4.2	239	10
Grayson Allen	24	50	121	18.2%	0.5	210	17
Oso Ighodaro	20	43	139	17.0%	1.7	232	11
Ryan Dunn	19	41	139	17.5%	1.7	226	8
Devin Booker	26	55	119	28.2%	0.6	162	16
Collin Gillespie	29	62	78	11.3%	-2.6	92	14
Dillon Brooks	24	50	97	26.2%	-2.5	34	10
Rasheer Fleming	13	27	50	25.3%	-4.6	-107	1
Jordan Goodwin	22	47	43	25.7%	-8.7	-148	2
Isaiah Livers	7	14	234	17.0%	2.8	484	-2
Nigel Hayes-Davis	3	7	210	13.3%	0.9	328	-5
Khaman Maluach	5	11	0	15.0%	-1.9	-231	-5

Source: https://www.bulletsforever.com/wash...lowout-suns-dominate-wizards-dress-it-up-late

 

[Washington Wizards]

Wizards at Suns discussion

The Washington Wizards play the Phoenix Suns at 8 p.m. tonight. Watch the game on Monumental Sports Network.

Source: https://www.bulletsforever.com/washington-wizards-gamethreads/67433/wizards-at-suns-discussion

 

[Washington Wizards]

Wizards Check-Up: Better and More Competitive But Still Bad

With two days off between games, it’s time for a Washington Wizards checkup. After a 5-2 binge (7-5 over a 12-game stretch), their record stands at 10-28. That’s the fourth worst winning percentage in the league, and more or less in line with what the oddsmakers thought — preseason over/under lines pegged them as a 20-win team.

My own expectations were worse. I estimated them to win 15 games, which a) is theoretically possible, and b) would mean a brutal second half of the season.

Advanced stat indicators of team strength have improved during this winning stretch, though they’re still indicative of the league’s weakest team. Barring a painful reversion to earlier form, they have likely ended the possibility of being the worst team (single season) in league history.

With 10 wins, they’re already out of history danger territory in terms of record and winning percentage. The 1972-73 Philadelphia 76ers managed just nine wins with 10 victories. If they lose every remaining game, they’d have a 12.2% winning percentage, which would still be slightly better than the 10.6% posted by the 2011=12 Charlotte Bobcats So they have that going for them.

Over that 7-5 run, the team posted an offensive rating (points per 100 possessions) of 114.8 (about a point below league average) and a defensive rating of 115.8 (right at league average). That’s some genuine improvement, and it’s a long enough stretch to think it marks some real improvement. This is not to say they’ve become a league average team — but rather that they’re probably better than “worst ever” and Wizards fans can have real reason to hope the team might become decent-to-good in the future.

Better measures of team strength are related to score — scoring margin, efficiency margin, or strength of schedule adjusted scoring margin. For the season, the Wizards adjusted scoring margin is a league worst -10.6. That’s nearly two points per 100 possessions better than their adjusted scoring margin a month ago. They currently sit at 13th worst all-time, which is better than the third worst they posted last season.

We’ll just not talk about the last three games.

The Measuring Stick​

Here’s where the Wizards currently rank in the various key stats of team strength (where they ranked at the last update, which was Dec. 11, is in parentheses):

• Offensive rating (points allowed per 100 possessions): 27 (28)
• Defensive rating (points scored per 100 possessions): 29 (29)

The above should not be understood to mean that the Wizards have not played better the past few weeks. They have been better. It does underscore how bad they were before they improved — even much better for nearly a third of the season barely nudges them in the league rankings.

Offensive Four Factors​

• eFG%: 21 (19)
• Offensive Rebounding Percentage: 20 (24)
• Turnover Rate: 26 (30)
• Free Throws Made/Field Goal Attempts: 26 (28)

Since the last update, the Wizards shot about the same and improved in each of the other factors. The most important of these is turnover rate — doing a better job of turning possessions into scoring opportunities.

Defensive Four Factors​

• eFG%: 23 (25)
• Defensive Rebounding Percentage: 30 (30)
• Turnover Rate: 28 (29)
• Free Throws Made/Field Goal Attempts: 15 (14)

The numbers indicate the Wizards have done a better job in the most important factor of NBA defense — making the other team miss. While their defensive rebounding rank didn’t change, the raw number did improve. Previously, they were last by such a wide margin that they could remain last even while getting better.

The Wizards don’t force opponent turnovers. This is partly a reflection of their poor perimeter defense, and partly of their emphasis the past few weeks on trying to limit at-rim attempts.

Player Production Average​

Below is a table with updated results from the Player Production Average (PPA) metric so far this season. PPA is an overall rating metric I developed that credits players for things they do that help a team win (scoring, rebounding, play-making, defending) and debits them for things that hurt the cause (missed shots, turnovers, fouls, ineffective defense). PPA is similar to other linear weight rating metrics such as John Hollinger’s PER, David Berri’s Wins Produced, Kevin Pelton’s VORP, and the granddaddy of them all, Dave Heeren’s TENDEX.

PPA weighs a player’s performance per possession against that of his competitors season by season. While PPA falls into the category of a linear weight metric, the values for statistical categories float a bit season-to-season based on league performance.

PPA is pace neutral, accounts for defense, and includes a “degree of difficulty” factor based on the level of competition a player faces while on the floor. Beginning with the 2019-20 season, I added a position/role adjustment designed to reflect how roles and on-court positioning affect individual abilities to produce certain stats.

Inputs include:

• on-court team defensive rating
• points
• rebounds (offensive and defensive weighed differently)
• assists
• steals
• blocks
• shot attempts
• turnovers
• personal fouls
• starts
• minutes

In the table below, I’ve included each player’s PPA last time, currently (through games played Jan. 7 — game 36), as well as games played and minutes per game. The Garbage Time Brigade has their own section.

In the table below, LAST = the player’s PPA when I last published an update, which was Jan. 11, 2025.

PLAYER	GAMES	MPG	LAST	PPA
Alex Sarr	27	29.7	146	157
Marvin Bagley III	31	19.3	98	108
Justin Champagnie	34	17.4	97	99
Kyshawn George	27	31.9	90	89
Khris Middleton	24	24.4	85	83
Bilal Coulibaly	22	27.1	59	83
Tre Johnson	29	23.9	50	79
Cam Whitmore	21	16.9	49	49
Bub Carrington	36	27.2	23	47
Tristan Vukcevic	27	11.4	46	43
Will Riley	29	12.6	37	43
Malaki Branham	20	9.3	44	42
AJ Johnson	19	6.4	-28	-7
DEPARTED	GAMES	MPG	LAST	PPA
CJ McCollum	35	30.9	115	121
Corey Kispert	19	19.5	83	78
GTB	GAMES	MPG	PPA	PPA
Anthony Gill	15	4.4	48	56
Jamir Watkins	14	11.6	23	37
Sharife Cooper	4	2.5	-66	-66

A few thoughts:

• Alex Sarr — despite a few bad games during this stretch — significantly improved his PPA score. He’s having a very good season for an NBA player. That he’s doing it at age 20 in his second season is highly encouraging.
• Marvin Bagley III has given Washington competent play in the middle when Sarr goes to the bench. He’s not the defender Sarr is, but he adds rebounding and provides offensive punch as a roller, finisher, and offensive rebounder. I anticipate the Wizards will trade him to a contending team that needs a good backup big (or possibly even a starter) and would not be shocked to see him return to DC as a free agent in the offseason.
• Justin Champagnie should be starting.
• Bilal Coulibaly is healthy and playing better. He played 10 games during this update period, and his full-season PPA went from 59 to 83. He’s still a project on offense, but his process is improving (I’ve written about it in postgame articles) and he’s a very good defender who typically guards the opponents top offensive threat regardless of position.
• One of the biggest improvers is the 19-year-old Tre Johnson, who’s a lethal shooter adding (unveiling?) offensive repertoire as defenses react. I’d love to see him be more attentive on defense and do some more non-scoring work, but he’s doing great for a teenage rookie.
• Bub Carrington is another youngster playing better. His PPA poked its nose above the replacement level line in this update — marked improvement from how he played through the teams first couple dozen games.

Source: https://www.bulletsforever.com/wash...-up-better-and-more-competitive-but-still-bad